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Consequences of landscape fragmentation on Lyme disease risk: a cellular automata approach.

ABSTRACT: The abundance of infected Ixodid ticks is an important component of human risk of Lyme disease, and various empirical studies have shown that this is associated, at least in part, to landscape fragmentation. In this study, we aimed at exploring how varying woodland fragmentation patterns affect the risk of Lyme disease, through infected tick abundance. A cellular automata model was developed, incorporating a heterogeneous landscape with three interactive components: an age-structured tick population, a classical disease transmission function, and hosts. A set of simplifying assumptions were adopted with respect to the study objective and field data limitations. In the model, the landscape influences both tick survival and host movement. The validation of the model was performed with an empirical study. Scenarios of various landscape configurations (focusing on woodland fragmentation) were simulated and compared. Lyme disease risk indices (density and infection prevalence of nymphs) differed considerably between scenarios: (i) the risk could be higher in highly fragmented woodlands, which is supported by a number of recently published empirical studies, and (ii) grassland could reduce the risk in adjacent woodland, which suggests landscape fragmentation studies of zoonotic diseases should not focus on the patch-level woodland patterns only, but also on landscape-level adjacent land cover patterns. Further analysis of the simulation results indicated strong correlations between Lyme disease risk indices and the density, shape and aggregation level of woodland patches. These findings highlight the strong effect of the spatial patterns of local host population and movement on the spatial dynamics of Lyme disease risks, which can be shaped by woodland fragmentation. In conclusion, using a cellular automata approach is beneficial for modelling complex zoonotic transmission systems as it can be combined with either real world landscapes for exploring direct spatial effects or artificial representations for outlining possible empirical investigations.

SUBMITTER: Li S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3382467 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Consequences of landscape fragmentation on Lyme disease risk: a cellular automata approach.

Li Sen S Hartemink Nienke N Speybroeck Niko N Vanwambeke Sophie O SO

PloS one 20120625 6

The abundance of infected Ixodid ticks is an important component of human risk of Lyme disease, and various empirical studies have shown that this is associated, at least in part, to landscape fragmentation. In this study, we aimed at exploring how varying woodland fragmentation patterns affect the risk of Lyme disease, through infected tick abundance. A cellular automata model was developed, incorporating a heterogeneous landscape with three interactive components: an age-structured tick popula ...[more]

PMID: 22761842

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Project description:BackgroundThe spread of an infectious disease is determined by biological and social factors. Models based on cellular automata are adequate to describe such natural systems consisting of a massive collection of simple interacting objects. They characterize the time evolution of the global system as the emergent behaviour resulting from the interaction of the objects, whose behaviour is defined through a set of simple rules that encode the individual behaviour and the transmission dynamic.MethodsAn epidemic is characterized trough an individual-based-model built upon cellular automata. In the proposed model, each individual of the population is represented by a cell of the automata. This way of modeling an epidemic situation allows to individually define the characteristic of each individual, establish different scenarios and implement control strategies.ResultsA cellular automata model to study the time evolution of a heterogeneous populations through the various stages of disease was proposed, allowing the inclusion of individual heterogeneity, geographical characteristics and social factors that determine the dynamic of the desease. Different assumptions made to built the classical model were evaluated, leading to following results: i) for low contact rate (like in quarantine process or low density population areas) the number of infective individuals is lower than other areas where the contact rate is higher, and ii) for different initial spacial distributions of infected individuals different epidemic dynamics are obtained due to its influence on the transition rate and the reproductive ratio of disease.ConclusionsThe contact rate and spatial distributions have a central role in the spread of a disease. For low density populations the spread is very low and the number of infected individuals is lower than in highly populated areas. The spacial distribution of the population and the disease focus as well as the geographical characteristic of the area play a central role in the dynamics of the desease.

Project description:Borrelia burgdorferi, the etiological agent of Lyme disease, persists in nature through an enzootic cycle consisting of a vertebrate host and an Ixodes tick vector. The sequence motifs modified by two well-characterized restriction/modification (R/M) loci of B. burgdorferi type strain B31 were recently described, but the methylation profiles of other Lyme disease Borrelia bacteria have not been characterized. Here, the methylomes of B. burgdorferi type strain B31 and 7 clonal derivatives, along with B. burgdorferi N40, B. burgdorferi 297, B. burgdorferi CA-11, B. afzelii PKo, B. afzelii BO23, and B. garinii PBr, were defined through PacBio single-molecule real-time (SMRT) sequencing. This analysis revealed 9 novel sequence motifs methylated by the plasmid-encoded restriction/modification enzymes of these Borrelia strains. Furthermore, while a previous analysis of B. burgdorferi B31 revealed an epigenetic impact of methylation on the global transcriptome, the current data contradict those findings; our analyses of wild-type B. burgdorferi B31 revealed no consistent differences in gene expression among isogenic derivatives lacking one or more restriction/modification enzymes. IMPORTANCE The principal causative agent of Lyme disease in humans in the United States is Borrelia burgdorferi, while B. burgdorferi, B. afzelii, and B. garinii, collectively members of the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato species complex, cause Lyme disease in Europe and Asia. Two plasmid-encoded restriction/modification systems have been shown to limit the genetic transformation of B. burgdorferi type strain B31 with foreign DNA, but little is known about the restriction/modification systems of other Lyme disease Borrelia bacteria. This paper describes the methylation motifs present on genomic DNAs of multiple B. burgdorferi, B. afzelii, and B. garinii strains. Contrary to a previous report, we did not find evidence for an epigenetic impact on gene expression by methylation. Knowledge of the motifs recognized and methylated by the restriction/modification enzymes of Lyme disease Borrelia will facilitate molecular genetic investigations of these important human pathogens. Additionally, the similar motifs methylated by orthologous restriction/modification systems of Lyme disease Borrelia bacteria and the presence of these motifs within recombinogenic loci suggest a biological role for these ubiquitous restriction/modification systems in horizontal gene transfer.

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Consequences of landscape fragmentation on Lyme disease risk: a cellular automata approach.

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Consequences of landscape fragmentation on Lyme disease risk: a cellular automata approach.

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