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Aspirin in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in the Women's Health Study: effect of noncompliance.

ABSTRACT: Randomized evidence for aspirin in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among women is limited and suggests at most a modest effect for total CVD. Lack of compliance, however, can null-bias estimated effects. We used marginal structural models (MSMs) to estimate the etiologic effect of continuous aspirin use on CVD events among 39,876 apparently healthy female health professionals aged 45 years and older in the Women's Health Study, a randomized trial of 100 mg aspirin every other day versus placebo. As-treated analyses and MSMs controlled for time-varying determinants of aspirin use and CVD. Predictors of aspirin use differed by randomized group and prior use and included medical history, CVD risk factors, and intermediate CVD events. Previously reported intent-to-treat analyses found small non-significant effects of aspirin on total CVD (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.91, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 0.81-1.03) and CVD mortality (HR = 0.95, 95 % CI = 0.74-1.22). As-treated analyses were similar for total CVD with a slight reduction in CVD mortality (HR = 0.88, 95 % CI = 0.67-1.16). MSMs, which adjusted for non-compliance, were similar for total CVD (HR = 0.93; 95 % CI: 0.81, 1.07) but suggested lower CVD mortality with aspirin use (HR = 0.76; 95 % CI: 0.54, 1.08). Adjusting for non-compliance had little impact on the estimated effect of aspirin on total CVD, but strengthened the effect on CVD mortality. These results support a limited effect of low-dose aspirin on total CVD in women, but potential benefit for CVD mortality.

SUBMITTER: Cook NR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3383873 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Aspirin in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in the Women's Health Study: effect of noncompliance.

Cook Nancy R NR Cole Stephen R SR Buring Julie E JE

European journal of epidemiology 20120615 6

Randomized evidence for aspirin in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among women is limited and suggests at most a modest effect for total CVD. Lack of compliance, however, can null-bias estimated effects. We used marginal structural models (MSMs) to estimate the etiologic effect of continuous aspirin use on CVD events among 39,876 apparently healthy female health professionals aged 45 years and older in the Women's Health Study, a randomized trial of 100 mg aspirin every ot ...[more]

PMID: 22699516

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Project description:BACKGROUND:The role of aspirin in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the benefit-risk ratio of aspirin for primary prevention of CVD with a particular focus on subgroups. METHODS:Randomized controlled trials comparing the effects of aspirin for primary prevention of CVD versus control and including at least 1000 patients were eligible for this meta-analysis. The primary efficacy outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included cardiovascular mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and net clinical benefit. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding. Subgroup analyses involving sex, concomitant statin treatment, diabetes, and smoking were performed. RESULTS:Thirteen randomized controlled trials comprising 164,225 patients were included. The risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was similar for aspirin and control groups (RR 0.98; 95% CI, 0.93-1.02; RR 0.99; 95% CI, 0.90-1.08; respectively). Aspirin reduced the relative risk (RRR) of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) by 9% (RR 0.91; 95% CI, 0.86-0.95), myocardial infarction by 14% (RR 0.86; 95% CI, 0.77-0.95), and ischemic stroke by 10% (RR 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.99), but was associated with a 46% relative risk increase of major bleeding events (RR 1.46; 95% CI, 1.30-1.64) compared with controls. Aspirin use did not translate into a net clinical benefit adjusted for event-associated mortality risk (mean 0.034%; 95% CI, - 0.18 to 0.25%). There was an interaction for aspirin effect in three patient subgroups: (i) in patients under statin treatment, aspirin was associated with a 12% RRR of MACE (RR 0.88; 95% CI, 0.80-0.96), and this effect was lacking in the no-statin group; (ii) in non-smokers, aspirin was associated with a 10% RRR of MACE (RR 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.99), and this effect was not present in smokers; and (iii) in males, aspirin use resulted in a 11% RRR of MACE (RR 0.89; 95% CI, 0.83-0.95), with a non-significant effect in females. CONCLUSIONS:Aspirin use does not reduce all-cause or cardiovascular mortality and results in an insufficient benefit-risk ratio for CVD primary prevention. Non-smokers, patients treated with statins, and males had the greatest risk reduction of MACE across subgroups. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION:PROSPERO CRD42019118474.

Dataset Information

Aspirin in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in the Women's Health Study: effect of noncompliance.

Publications

Aspirin in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in the Women's Health Study: effect of noncompliance.

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