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Mortality predictive indexes for the community-dwelling elderly US population.

ABSTRACT: Few predictive indexes for long-term mortality have been developed for community-dwelling elderly populations. Parsimonious predictive indexes are important decision-making tools for clinicians, policy makers, and epidemiologists.To develop 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality predictive indexes for nationally representative community-dwelling elderly people.Cohort study.The Second Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA II).Nationally representative civilian community-dwelling persons at least 70 years old. We randomly selected 60% of the sample for prediction development and used the remaining 40% for validation.Sociodemographics, impairments, and medical diagnoses were collected from the LSOA II baseline interviews. Instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) stages were derived to measure functional status. All-cause mortality was obtained from the LSOA II Linked Mortality Public-use File.The analyses included 7,373 sample persons with complete data, among which mortality rates were 3.7%, 23.3%, and 49.8% for 1, 5, and 10 years, respectively. Four, eight, and ten predictors were identified for 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality, respectively, in multiple logistic regression models to create three predictive indexes. Age, sex, coronary artery disease, and IADL stages were the most essential predictors for all three indexes. C-statistics of the three indexes were 0.72, 0.74, and 0.75 in the development cohort and 0.72, 0.72, and 0.74 in the validation cohort for 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality, respectively. Five risk groups were defined based on the scores.The 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality indexes include parsimonious predictor sets maximizing ease of mortality prediction in community settings. Thus, they may provide valuable information for prognosis of elderly patients and guide the comparison of alternative interventions. Including IADL stage as a predictor yields simplified mortality prediction when detailed disease information is not available.

SUBMITTER: Zhang Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3403135 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mortality predictive indexes for the community-dwelling elderly US population.

Zhang Zi Z Xie Dawei D Kurichi Jibby E JE Streim Joel J Zhang Guangyu G Stineman Margaret G MG

Journal of general internal medicine 20120316 8

<h4>Background</h4>Few predictive indexes for long-term mortality have been developed for community-dwelling elderly populations. Parsimonious predictive indexes are important decision-making tools for clinicians, policy makers, and epidemiologists.<h4>Objective</h4>To develop 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality predictive indexes for nationally representative community-dwelling elderly people.<h4>Design</h4>Cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>The Second Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA II).<h4>Participants ...[more]

PMID: 22422075

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Project description:Anemia is one of the most common health problems in the elderly in low and middle income countries. Evidence from studies in high income countries suggests that the presence of anemia may predict mortality. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of anemia and the determine the relationship of hemoglobin, mean corpuscular volume (MCV) and mortality in community dwelling Thai elderly. Data from subjects aged ≥ 60 years from the Fourth Thai National Health Examination Survey were analyzed. Comorbidity and hematologic indexes including MCV were obtained. The Cox proportional hazard model was applied to explore associations with mortality. Data from 8,935 subjects were obtained. The mean age of participants was 69.2 years (SD 6.8). 3446 (38.2%) of subjects had anemia; 1931(56%) of these were classified as mild and normocytic. With a total 51,268 person-year of follow up, 753 participants with anemia died, and the cumulative all-cause mortality was 38.5 per 1,000 person-years. The presence of anemia was associated with an increased risk of mortality with HR of 1.66 (95% CI = 1.50-1.84 , p < 0.001). Among subjects with low MCV, hemoglobin level < 10 g/dl in men and < 9 g/dl in women significantly increased the risk of mortality (HR of 2.71, 95% CI = 1.88-3.91 and HR of 3.14, 95%CI = 2.11-4.67, respectively) Persons with anemia and normal MCV, the association with mortality was evident at hemoglobin levels below 11 g/dl for both males and females. (HR of 1.98, 95% CI = 1.67-2.35). Anemia is a moderate to severe public health significant in the population for community dwelling elderly in Thailand. At the same level of Hemoglobin, low MCV population seem to have lower mortality rate than normal MCV. Systematic screening for anemia should be implemented to identify patients at increased risk of mortality. The future research should be focus on causes of anemia and factors contributing to increased mortality in normal to high MCV would be of interest. If this could lead to identifying modifiable causes, it would be beneficial for improving mortality risk among older people.

Project description:ObjectiveGreen space has been shown to be beneficial for human wellness through multiple pathways. This study aimed to explore the contributions of neighbouring green space to cause-specific mortality.MethodsData from 3544 Chinese men and women (aged ≥65 years at baseline) in a community-based cohort study were analysed. Outcome measures, identified from the death registry, were death from all-cause, respiratory system disease, circulatory system disease. The quantity of green space (%) within a 300 m radius buffer was calculated for each subject from a map created based on the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index. Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for demographics, socioeconomics, lifestyle, health conditions and housing type were used to estimate the HRs and 95% CIs.ResultsDuring a mean of 10.3 years of follow-up, 795 deaths were identified. Our findings showed that a 10% increase in coverage of green space was significantly associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality (HR 0.963, 95% CI 0.930 to 0.998), circulatory system-caused mortality (HR 0.887, 95% CI 0.817 to 0.963) and stroke-caused mortality (HR 0.661, 95% CI 0.524 to 0.835), independent of age, sex, marital status, years lived in Hong Kong, education level, socioeconomic ladder, smoking, alcohol intake, diet quality, self-rated health and housing type. The inverse associations between coverage of green space with all-cause mortality (HR 0.964, 95% CI 0.931 to 0.999) and circulatory system disease-caused mortality (HR 0.888, 95% CI 0.817 to 0.964) were attenuated when the models were further adjusted for physical activity and cognitive function. The effects of green space on all-cause and circulatory system-caused mortality tended to be stronger in females than in males.ConclusionHigher coverage of green space was associated with reduced risks of all-cause mortality, circulatory system-caused mortality and stroke-caused mortality in Chinese older people living in a highly urbanised city.

Project description:BackgroundWhether cognitive ageing trajectory is related to common functional deficits independent of initial cognitive function remains inconclusive. We aimed to explore the adverse health effect and potential predictive factors of distinct cognitive trajectories among Chinese older adults.MethodsThree thousand five hundred eighty-one community-dwelling older adults who completed three consecutive cognitive function examinations with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) over 5 years and were without cognitive impairment at enrollment were included. A group-based trajectory model was used to estimate cognitive ageing trajectories. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed with logistic regression models to identify potential baseline determinants and health effect of cognitive trajectories on various adverse outcomes.ResultsTwo distinct cognitive ageing trajectories were identified with about 5.3% of the study participants ascribed to the rapidly decreasing group. Subjects with rapidly decreasing cognition showed significantly higher odds (OR, 95%CI) of experiencing frailty (4.04, 2.77-5.86), falls (2.01, 1.05-3.70), balance impairment (4.20, 2.75-6.38), high fall risk (5.66, 2.67-11.77) based on the Tinetti total score, disability in activities of daily living (1.76, 1.19-2.56), disability in instrumental activities of daily living (1.52, 1.05-2.19), and motor cognitive risk syndrome (2.24, 1.23-3.98) compared with their steadily decreasing counterparts. Individuals with older age, low education level, no marriage, high score of rapid eye movement behavior disorders, poor physical and cognitive function at baseline were more predisposed to an accelerated cognitive decline.ConclusionsFaster cognitive decline was independently associated with higher risk of multiple adverse events. Our findings put more emphasis on a routine and constant surveillance of cognitive function among community-dwelling older adults.

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Mortality predictive indexes for the community-dwelling elderly US population.

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Mortality predictive indexes for the community-dwelling elderly US population.

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