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Unobserved time effects confound the identification of climate change impacts.

ABSTRACT: A recent study by Feng et al. [Feng S, Krueger A, Oppenheimer M (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:14257-14262] in PNAS reported statistical evidence of a weather-driven causal effect of crop yields on human migration from Mexico to the United States. We show that this conclusion is based on a different statistical model than the one stated in the paper. When we correct for this mistake, there is no evidence of a causal link.

SUBMITTER: Auffhammer M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3409766 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Unobserved time effects confound the identification of climate change impacts.

Auffhammer Maximilian M Vincent Jeffrey R JR

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20120710 30

A recent study by Feng et al. [Feng S, Krueger A, Oppenheimer M (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:14257-14262] in PNAS reported statistical evidence of a weather-driven causal effect of crop yields on human migration from Mexico to the United States. We show that this conclusion is based on a different statistical model than the one stated in the paper. When we correct for this mistake, there is no evidence of a causal link. ...[more]

PMID: 22783021

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