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Estimating sample sizes for predementia Alzheimer's trials based on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

ABSTRACT: This study modeled predementia Alzheimer's disease clinical trials. Longitudinal data from cognitively normal (CN) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) participants in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative were used to calculate sample size requirements for trials using outcome measures, including the Clinical Dementia Rating scale sum of boxes, Mini-Mental State Examination, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-cognitive subscale with and without delayed recall, and the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Task. We examined the impact on sample sizes of enrichment for genetic and biomarker criteria, including cerebrospinal fluid protein and neuroimaging analyses. We observed little cognitive decline in the CN population at 36 months, regardless of the enrichment strategy. Nonetheless, in CN subjects, using Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Task total as an outcome at 36 months required the fewest subjects across enrichment strategies, with apolipoprotein E genotype ?4 carrier status requiring the fewest (n = 499 per arm to demonstrate a 25% reduction in disease progression). In MCI, enrichment reduced the required sample sizes for trials, relative to estimates based on all subjects. For MCI, the Clinical Dementia Rating scale sum of boxes consistently required the smallest sample sizes. We conclude that predementia clinical trial conduct in Alzheimer's disease is enhanced by the use of biomarker inclusion criteria.

SUBMITTER: Grill JD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3412892 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating sample sizes for predementia Alzheimer's trials based on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

Grill Joshua D JD Di Lijie L Lu Po H PH Lee Cathy C Ringman John J Apostolova Liana G LG Chow Nicole N Kohannim Omid O Cummings Jeffrey L JL Thompson Paul M PM Elashoff David D

Neurobiology of aging 20120413 1

This study modeled predementia Alzheimer's disease clinical trials. Longitudinal data from cognitively normal (CN) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) participants in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative were used to calculate sample size requirements for trials using outcome measures, including the Clinical Dementia Rating scale sum of boxes, Mini-Mental State Examination, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-cognitive subscale with and without delayed recall, and the Rey Auditory Ve ...[more]

PMID: 22503160

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Project description:INTRODUCTION:The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) has continued development and standardization of methodologies for biomarkers and has provided an increased depth and breadth of data available to qualified researchers. This review summarizes the over 400 publications using ADNI data during 2014 and 2015. METHODS:We used standard searches to find publications using ADNI data. RESULTS:(1) Structural and functional changes, including subtle changes to hippocampal shape and texture, atrophy in areas outside of hippocampus, and disruption to functional networks, are detectable in presymptomatic subjects before hippocampal atrophy; (2) In subjects with abnormal ?-amyloid deposition (A?+), biomarkers become abnormal in the order predicted by the amyloid cascade hypothesis; (3) Cognitive decline is more closely linked to tau than A? deposition; (4) Cerebrovascular risk factors may interact with A? to increase white-matter (WM) abnormalities which may accelerate Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression in conjunction with tau abnormalities; (5) Different patterns of atrophy are associated with impairment of memory and executive function and may underlie psychiatric symptoms; (6) Structural, functional, and metabolic network connectivities are disrupted as AD progresses. Models of prion-like spreading of A? pathology along WM tracts predict known patterns of cortical A? deposition and declines in glucose metabolism; (7) New AD risk and protective gene loci have been identified using biologically informed approaches; (8) Cognitively normal and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects are heterogeneous and include groups typified not only by "classic" AD pathology but also by normal biomarkers, accelerated decline, and suspected non-Alzheimer's pathology; (9) Selection of subjects at risk of imminent decline on the basis of one or more pathologies improves the power of clinical trials; (10) Sensitivity of cognitive outcome measures to early changes in cognition has been improved and surrogate outcome measures using longitudinal structural magnetic resonance imaging may further reduce clinical trial cost and duration; (11) Advances in machine learning techniques such as neural networks have improved diagnostic and prognostic accuracy especially in challenges involving MCI subjects; and (12) Network connectivity measures and genetic variants show promise in multimodal classification and some classifiers using single modalities are rivaling multimodal classifiers. DISCUSSION:Taken together, these studies fundamentally deepen our understanding of AD progression and its underlying genetic basis, which in turn informs and improves clinical trial design.

Project description:BackgroundDetecting subtle-to-moderate biomarker changes such as those in amyloid PET imaging becomes increasingly relevant in the context of primary and secondary prevention of Alzheimer's disease (AD). This work aimed to determine if and when distribution volume ratio (DVR; derived from dynamic imaging) and regional quantitative values could improve statistical power in AD prevention trials.MethodsBaseline and annualized % change in [11C]PIB SUVR and DVR were computed for a global (cortical) and regional (early) composite from scans of 237 cognitively unimpaired subjects from the OASIS-3 database ( www.oasis-brains.org ). Bland-Altman and correlation analyses were used to assess the relationship between SUVR and DVR. General linear models and linear mixed effects models were used to determine effects of age, sex, and APOE-ε4 carriership on baseline and longitudinal amyloid burden. Finally, differences in statistical power of SUVR and DVR (cortical or early composite) were assessed considering three anti-amyloid trial scenarios: secondary prevention trials including subjects with (1) intermediate-to-high (Centiloid > 20.1), or (2) intermediate (20.1 < Centiloid ≤ 49.4) amyloid burden, and (3) a primary prevention trial focusing on subjects with low amyloid burden (Centiloid ≤ 20.1). Trial scenarios were set to detect 20% reduction in accumulation rates across the whole population and in APOE-ε4 carriers only.ResultsAlthough highly correlated to DVR (ρ = .96), cortical SUVR overestimated DVR cross-sectionally and in annual % change. In secondary prevention trials, DVR required 143 subjects per arm, compared with 176 for SUVR. Both restricting inclusion to individuals with intermediate amyloid burden levels or to APOE-ε4 carriers alone further reduced sample sizes. For primary prevention, SUVR required less subjects per arm (n = 855) compared with DVR (n = 1508) and the early composite also provided considerable sample size reductions (n = 855 to n = 509 for SUVR, n = 1508 to n = 734 for DVR).ConclusionSample sizes in AD secondary prevention trials can be reduced by the acquisition of dynamic PET scans and/or by restricting inclusion to subjects with intermediate amyloid burden or to APOE-ε4 carriers only. Using a targeted early composite only leads to reductions of sample size requirements in primary prevention trials. These findings support strategies to enable smaller Proof-of-Concept Phase II clinical trials to better streamline drug development.

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Estimating sample sizes for predementia Alzheimer's trials based on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

Publications

Estimating sample sizes for predementia Alzheimer's trials based on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

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