Dataset Information

Prioritizing child health interventions in Ethiopia: modeling impact on child mortality, life expectancy and inequality in age at death.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The fourth Millennium Development Goal calls for a two-thirds reduction in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015. Under-5 mortality rate is declining, but many countries are still far from achieving the goal. Effective child health interventions that could reduce child mortality exist, but national decision-makers lack contextual information for priority setting in their respective resource-constrained settings. We estimate the potential health impact of increasing coverage of 14 selected health interventions on child mortality in Ethiopia (2011-2015). We also explore the impact on life expectancy and inequality in the age of death (Gini(health)).

Methods and findings

We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate potential impact of scaling-up 14 health interventions in Ethiopia (2011-2015). Interventions are scaled-up to 1) government target levels, 2) 90% coverage and 3) 90% coverage of the five interventions with the highest impact. Under-5 mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate and deaths averted are primary outcome measures. We used modified life tables to estimate impact on life expectancy at birth and inequality in the age of death (Gini(health)). Under-5 mortality rate declines from 101.0 in 2011 to 68.8, 42.1 and 56.7 per 1000 live births under these three scenarios. Prioritizing child health would also increase life expectancy at birth from expected 60.5 years in 2015 to 62.5, 64.2 and 63.4 years and reduce inequality in age of death (Gini(health)) substantially from 0.24 to 0.21, 0.18 and 0.19.

Conclusions

The Millennium Development Goal for child health is reachable in Ethiopia. Prioritizing child health would also increase total life expectancy at birth and reduce inequality in age of death substantially (Gini(health)).

SUBMITTER: Onarheim KH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3413690 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Prioritizing child health interventions in Ethiopia: modeling impact on child mortality, life expectancy and inequality in age at death.

Onarheim Kristine Husøy KH Tessema Solomon S Johansson Kjell Arne KA Eide Kristiane Tislevoll KT Norheim Ole Frithjof OF Miljeteig Ingrid I

PloS one 20120807 8

<h4>Background</h4>The fourth Millennium Development Goal calls for a two-thirds reduction in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015. Under-5 mortality rate is declining, but many countries are still far from achieving the goal. Effective child health interventions that could reduce child mortality exist, but national decision-makers lack contextual information for priority setting in their respective resource-constrained settings. We estimate the potential health impact of increasing coverage ...[more]

PMID: 22879890

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Project description:There is a strong negative correlation between increasing life expectancy and decreasing lifespan variation, a measure of inequality. Previous research suggests that countries achieving a high level of life expectancy later in time generally do so with lower lifespan variation than forerunner countries. This may be because they are able to capitalise on lessons already learnt. However, a few countries achieve a high level of life expectancy later in time with higher inequality. Scotland appears to be such a country and presents an interesting case study because it previously experienced lower inequality when reaching the same level of life expectancy as its closest comparator England and Wales. We calculated life expectancy and lifespan variation for Scotland and England and Wales for the years 1950 to 2012, comparing Scotland to England and Wales when it reached the same level of life expectancy later on in time, and assessed the difference in the level of lifespan variation. The lifespan variation difference between the two countries was then decomposed into age-specific components. Analysis was carried out for males and females separately. Since the 1950s Scotland has achieved the same level of life expectancy at least ten years later in time than England and Wales. Initially it did so with lower lifespan variation. Following the 1980s Scotland has been achieving the same level of life expectancy later in time than England and Wales and with higher inequality, particularly for males. Decomposition revealed that higher inequality is partly explained by lower older age mortality rates but primarily by higher premature adult age mortality rates when life expectancy is the same. Existing studies suggest that premature adult mortality rates are strongly associated with the social determinants of health and may be amenable to social and economic policies. So addressing these policy areas may have benefits for both inequality and population health in Scotland.

Project description:BackgroundAs new interventions to reduce childhood mortality are identified, careful consideration must be given to identifying populations that could benefit most from them. Promising reductions in childhood mortality reported in a large cluster randomized trial of mass drug administration (MDA) of azithromycin (AZM) prompted the development of visually compelling, easy-to-use tools that synthesize country-specific data on factors that would influence both potential AZM benefit and MDA implementation success.Methodology/principal findingsWe assessed the opportunity to reduce mortality and the feasibility of implementing such a program, creating Opportunity and Feasibility Indices, respectively. Countries with high childhood mortality were included. A Country Ranking Index combined key variables from the previous two Indices and applied a scoring system to identify high-priority countries. We compared four scenarios with varying weights given to each variable. Twenty-five countries met inclusion criteria. We created easily visualized tools to display the results of the Opportunity and Feasibility Indices. The Opportunity Index revealed substantial variation in the opportunity for an MDA of AZM program to reduce mortality, even among countries with high overall childhood mortality. The Feasibility Index demonstrated that implementing such a program would be most challenging in the countries that could see greatest benefit. Based on the Country Ranking Index, Equatorial Guinea would benefit the most from the MZA of AZM in three of the four scenarios we tested.Conclusions/significanceThese visually accessible tools can be adapted or refined to include other metrics deemed important by stakeholders, and provide a quantitative approach to prioritization for intervention implementation. The need to explicitly state metrics and their weighting encourages thoughtful and transparent decision making. The objective and data-driven approach promoted by the three Indices may foster more efficient use of resources.

Project description:IntroductionEthiopia has achieved the fourth Millennium Development Goal by reducing under 5 mortality. Nevertheless, there are challenges in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality. The aim of this study was to estimate maternal and neonatal mortality and the socio-economic inequalities of these mortalities in rural south-west Ethiopia.MethodsWe visited and enumerated all households but collected data from those that reported pregnancy and birth outcomes in the last five years in 15 of the 30 rural kebeles in Bonke woreda, Gamo Gofa, south-west Ethiopia. The primary outcomes were maternal and neonatal mortality and a secondary outcome was the rate of institutional delivery.ResultsWe found 11,762 births in 6572 households; 11,536 live and 226 stillbirths. There were 49 maternal deaths; yielding a maternal mortality ratio of 425 per 100,000 live births (95% CI:318-556). The poorest households had greater MMR compared to richest (550 vs 239 per 100,000 live births). However, the socio-economic factors examined did not have statistically significant association with maternal mortality. There were 308 neonatal deaths; resulting in a neonatal mortality ratio of 27 per 1000 live births (95% CI: 24-30). Neonatal mortality was greater in households in the poorest quartile compared to the richest; adjusted OR (AOR): 2.62 (95% CI: 1.65-4.15), headed by illiterates compared to better educated; AOR: 3.54 (95% CI: 1.11-11.30), far from road (?6 km) compared to within 5 km; AOR: 2.40 (95% CI: 1.56-3.69), that had three or more births in five years compared to two or less; AOR: 3.22 (95% CI: 2.45-4.22). Households with maternal mortality had an increased risk of stillbirths; OR: 11.6 (95% CI: 6.00-22.7), and neonatal deaths; OR: 7.2 (95% CI: 3.6-14.3). Institutional delivery was only 3.7%.ConclusionHigh mortality with socio-economic inequality and low institutional delivery highlight the importance of strengthening obstetric interventions in rural south-west Ethiopia.

Dataset Information

Prioritizing child health interventions in Ethiopia: modeling impact on child mortality, life expectancy and inequality in age at death.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

Prioritizing child health interventions in Ethiopia: modeling impact on child mortality, life expectancy and inequality in age at death.

Similar Datasets

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