Suicides associated with the 2008-10 economic recession in England: time trend analysis.
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ABSTRACT: Objective
To determine whether English regions worst affected by the economic recession in the United Kingdom in 2008-10 have had the greatest increases in suicides.Design
Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides with those that would be expected if pre-recession trends had continued. Multivariate regression models quantified the association between changes in unemployment (based on claimant data) and suicides (based on data from the National Clinical Health Outcomes Database).Setting
93 English regions, based on the Nomenclature of Territorial Units Statistics level 3 groupings of local authorities at county level and groups of unitary local authorities.Participants
Men and women with a record of death from suicide or injury of undetermined cause in 2000-10.Main outcome measure
Number of excess suicides during the economic recession (2008-10).Results
Between 2008 and 2010, we found 846 (95% confidence interval 818 to 877) more suicides among men than would have been expected based on historical trends, and 155 (121 to 189) more suicides among women. Historically, short term yearly fluctuations in unemployment have been associated with annual changes in suicides among men but not among women. We estimated that each 10% increase in the number of unemployed men was significantly associated with a 1.4% (0.5% to 2.3%) increase in male suicides. These findings suggest that about two fifths of the recent increase in suicides among men (increase of 329 suicides, 126 to 532) during the 2008-10 recession can be attributed to rising unemployment.Conclusion
The study provides evidence linking the recent increase in suicides in England with the financial crisis that began in 2008. English regions with the largest rises in unemployment have had the largest increases in suicides, particularly among men.
SUBMITTER: Barr B
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3419273 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Background & aimsEconomic factors might affect the use of recommended preventative services. We sought to determine whether the recent severe economic recession was associated with diminished screening colonoscopy rates among an insured population and to assess the relationship between out-of-pocket (OOP) costs and screening colonoscopy use.MethodsAdministrative data from 106 health plans (IMS LifeLink Health Plan Claims Database) were analyzed to determine monthly rates of screening colonoscopies performed on beneficiaries ages 50 to 64 years between January 2005 and November 2007 (prerecession), as well as from December 2007 through June 2009 (recession). Segmented regression models were used to evaluate changes in screening colonoscopy rates, as well as the relationship between screening and OOP costs before and during the recession.ResultsCompared with prerecession trends, during the recession screening colonoscopy rates decreased by 68.9 colonoscopies/1 million individuals per month (95% confidence interval, -84.6 to -53.1; P < .001). Application of study estimates to the entire US population indicated that during the recession, commercially insured patients aged 50 to 64 years underwent approximately 500,000 fewer screening colonoscopies. Compared with those with low OOP costs, those with high OOP procedure costs had lower rates of screening before and during the recession, and had a greater reduction in screening rates during the recession (P = .035).ConclusionsDuring the recession of December 2007 to June 2009, insured individuals reduced their use of screening colonoscopy compared with the 2 years before the recession began. OOP costs were related inversely to screening use, especially during the recession. Policies to reduce cost sharing could increase adherence to recommended preventive services such as colonoscopy examinations.
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Project description:IntroductionHealth research is one mechanism to improve population-level health and should generally match the health needs of populations. However, there have been limited data to assess the trends in national-level cardiovascular research output, even as cardiovascular disease [CVD] has become the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide.Materials and methodsWe performed a time trends analysis of cardiovascular research publications (1999-2008) downloaded from Web of Knowledge using a iteratively-tested cardiovascular bibliometric filter with >90% precision and recall. We evaluated cardiovascular research publications, five-year running actual citation indices [ACIs], and degree of international collaboration measured through the ratio of the fractional count of addresses from one country against all addresses for each publication.Results and discussionGlobal cardiovascular publication volume increased from 40 661 publications in 1999 to 55 284 publications in 2008, which represents a 36% increase. The proportion of cardiovascular publications from high-income, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD] countries declined from 93% to 84% of the total share over the study period. High-income, OECD countries generally had higher fractional counts, which suggest less international collaboration, than lower income countries from 1999-2008. There was an inverse relationship between cardiovascular publications and age-standardized CVD morbidity and mortality rates, but a direct, curvilinear relationship between cardiovascular publications and Human Development Index from 1999-2008.ConclusionsCardiovascular health research output has increased substantially in the past decade, with a greater share of citations being published from low- and middle-income countries. However, low- and middle-income countries with the higher burdens of cardiovascular disease continue to have lower research output than high-income countries, and thus require targeted research investments to improve cardiovascular health.
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Project description:OBJECTIVES:To better model underlying trends in cervical cancer incidence so as to model past trends, to estimate the impact of cervical screening on cervical cancer rates at different ages and to obtain a counterfactual baseline under a no-screening scenario. DESIGN:Trend analysis of cancer registry data recorded between 1971 and 2013. SETTING:England. PARTICIPANTS:132 493 women aged 20-84 with a diagnosis of cervical cancer. OUTCOME MEASURE:Cervical cancer incidence data were modelled using a modified age period cohort model able to capture both increased exposure to human papillomavirus (HPV) as well as changes in the age of exposure to HPV in young cohorts. Observed rates were compared with counterfactual baseline rates under a no-screening scenario to estimate the protective effect of screening. RESULTS:Rates of cervical cancer incidence have been decreasing since the introduction of screening but are projected to increase in the future under the current scenario. Between 1988 and 2013, it was estimated that screening had prevented approximately 65 000 cancers. Moreover, in 2013, the age-standardised rate (ASR) estimated under the no-screening scenario (37.9, 95% CI 37.4 to 38.3) was threefold higher among women aged 20-84 than the observed ASR (12.8, 95% CI 12.3 to 13.3). We estimate that the age of first HPV exposure has decreased by about 1 year every decade since the early 1970s (women born in 1955 onwards). CONCLUSIONS:Our results corroborated the importance of screening in preventing cervical cancer and indicated future rates are dependent on age at HPV exposure. Estimated future rates can be used for healthcare planning while the counterfactual baseline to quantify the impact of HPV vaccination in microsimulations.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:The economic recession of 2008-2009 resulted in unprecedented employment and economic losses leading to deterioration of cardiovascular health. We examined the trends in ideal cardiovascular health as measured by the American Heart Association's (AHA's) Life's Simple 7 metric during the periods of economic recession and subsequent economic recovery. METHODS:Data on adults ages ?20 years from the NHANES from economic-recession (2007-2010) and post-recession (2011-2016) periods was analyzed. The AHA's Life's Simple 7 score of 10-14 was used to classify ideal cardiovascular health status. Socioeconomic status was divided into 3 categories: high, middle, and low based on education and income status. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models including demographics, insurance status, health care access, and adjustment for multiple testing were used to analyze the trends in prevalence of ideal cardiovascular health across socioeconomic strata. RESULTS:We observed a decline in the multivariable-adjusted mean cardiovascular health score from 8.18 in 2007-2010 to 7.94 in 2015-2016 (Plinear = 0.02). This was primarily driven by the increasing prevalence of obesity (34% in 2007-2010 vs 41% in 2015-2016, Plinear = 0.005) and poor fasting glucose (8% in 2007-2010 vs 12% in 2015-2016, Plinear = 0.003). In multivariable-adjusted models, we observed the decreasing prevalence of ideal cardiovascular health with a nonlinear trend in the participants in the highest (51% in 2007-2010 vs 42% in 2015-2016, Pquadratic = 0.01) and lowest socioeconomic strata (16% in 2007-2010 vs 13% in 2015-2016, Pquadratic = 0.02). The prevalence of ideal cardiovascular health was higher in participants with high-socioeconomic status compared with other socioeconomic status participants. CONCLUSIONS:Despite economic recovery, ideal cardiovascular health metrics have not yet recovered. Cardiovascular health appears to be further deteriorating for US adults, particularly those in high- and lower-socioeconomic strata.
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Project description:BackgroundAntibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines.MethodsWe did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series.FindingsPrescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], p<0·0001). Starting in March, 2008, the number of cases of infective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, p<0·0001). By March, 2013, 35 more cases per month were reported than would have been expected had the previous trend continued. This increase in the incidence of infective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk.InterpretationAlthough our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis have fallen substantially and the incidence of infective endocarditis has increased significantly in England since introduction of the 2008 NICE guidelines.FundingHeart Research UK, Simplyhealth, and US National Institutes of Health.
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