Dataset Information

Impact of climate change on ecological quality indicators and biogeochemical fluxes in the Baltic sea: a multi-model ensemble study.

ABSTRACT: Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.

SUBMITTER: Meier HE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3428484 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impact of climate change on ecological quality indicators and biogeochemical fluxes in the Baltic sea: a multi-model ensemble study.

Meier H E Markus HE Müller-Karulis Bärbel B Andersson Helén C HC Dieterich Christian C Eilola Kari K Gustafsson Bo G BG Höglund Anders A Hordoir Robinson R Kuznetsov Ivan I Neumann Thomas T Ranjbar Zohreh Z Savchuk Oleg P OP Schimanke Semjon S

Ambio 20120901 6

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results sugges ...[more]

PMID: 22926879

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Project description:Optical-biogeochemical relationships of particulate and dissolved organic matter are presented in support of remote sensing of the Baltic Sea pelagic. This system exhibits strong seasonality in phytoplankton community composition and wide gradients of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), properties which are poorly handled by existing remote sensing algorithms. Absorption and scattering properties of particulate matter reflected the seasonality in biological (phytoplankton succession) and physical (thermal stratification) processes. Inherent optical properties showed much wider variability when normalized to the chlorophyll-a concentration compared to normalization to either total suspended matter dry weight or particulate organic carbon. The particle population had the largest optical variability in summer and was dominated by organic matter in both seasons. The geographic variability of CDOM and relationships with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) are also presented. CDOM dominated light absorption at blue wavelengths, contributing 81% (median) of the absorption by all water constituents at 400 nm and 63% at 442 nm. Consequentially, 90% of water-leaving radiance at 412 nm originated from a layer (z90) no deeper than approximately 1.0 m. With water increasingly attenuating light at longer wavelengths, a green peak in light penetration and reflectance is always present in these waters, with z90 up to 3.0-3.5 m depth, whereas z90 only exceeds 5 m at biomass < 5 mg Chla m-3. High absorption combined with a weakly scattering particle population (despite median phytoplankton biomass of 14.1 and 4.3 mg Chla m-3 in spring and summer samples, respectively), characterize this sea as a dark water body for which dedicated or exceptionally robust remote sensing techniques are required. Seasonal and regional optical-biogeochemical models, data distributions, and an extensive set of simulated remote-sensing reflectance spectra for testing of remote sensing algorithms are provided as supplementary data.

Dataset Information

Impact of climate change on ecological quality indicators and biogeochemical fluxes in the Baltic sea: a multi-model ensemble study.

Publications

Impact of climate change on ecological quality indicators and biogeochemical fluxes in the Baltic sea: a multi-model ensemble study.

Similar Datasets

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