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Predictors of Plasmodium falciparum malaria incidence in Chano Mille, South Ethiopia: a longitudinal study.

ABSTRACT: We assessed potential effects of local meteorological and environmental conditions, indoor residual spraying with insecticides, insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) use at individual and community levels, and individual factors on Plasmodium falciparum malaria incidence in a village in south Ethiopia. A cohort of 8,121 people was followed for 101 weeks with active and passive surveillance. Among 317 microscopically confirmed P. falciparum malaria episodes, 29.3% occurred among temporary residents. The incidence density was 3.6/10,000 person-weeks of observation. We observed higher malaria incidence among males, children 5-14 years of age, ITNs non-users, the poor, and people who lived closer to vector breeding places. Rainfall increased and indoor residual spraying with Deltamethrin reduced falciparum incidence. Although ITNs prevented falciparum malaria for the users, we did not find that free mass ITNs distribution reduced falciparum malaria on a village level.

SUBMITTER: Loha E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3435347 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictors of Plasmodium falciparum malaria incidence in Chano Mille, South Ethiopia: a longitudinal study.

Loha Eskindir E Lindtjørn Bernt B

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 20120723 3

We assessed potential effects of local meteorological and environmental conditions, indoor residual spraying with insecticides, insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) use at individual and community levels, and individual factors on Plasmodium falciparum malaria incidence in a village in south Ethiopia. A cohort of 8,121 people was followed for 101 weeks with active and passive surveillance. Among 317 microscopically confirmed P. falciparum malaria episodes, 29.3% occurred among temporary residents. Th ...[more]

PMID: 22826493

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. METHODS: Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations), temperature (17 locations), and relative humidity (three locations). Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF) models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. RESULTS: Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations) or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations) was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location to location, and among lagged effects, data transformation forms, ARIMA and TF orders. CONCLUSIONS: This study describes P. falciparum malaria incidence models linked with meteorological data. Variability in the models was principally attributed to regional differences, and a single model was not found that fits all locations. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence appeared to be a superior predictor than meteorology. Future efforts in malaria modelling may benefit from inclusion of non-meteorological factors.

Project description:BackgroundThe global decline of malaria burden and goals for elimination has led to an increased interest in the fine-scale epidemiology of malaria. Micro-geographic heterogeneity of malaria infection could have implications for designing targeted small-area interventions.MethodsTwo-year longitudinal cohort study data were used to explore the spatial and spatio-temporal distribution of malaria episodes in 2040 children aged < 10 years in 16 villages near the Gilgel-Gibe hydropower dam in Southwest Ethiopia. All selected households (HHs) were geo-referenced, and children were followed up through weekly house-to-house visits for two consecutive years to identify febrile episodes of P. falciparum and P. vivax infections. After confirming the spatial dependence of malaria episodes with Ripley's K function, SatScanTM was used to identify purely spatial and space-time clusters (hotspots) of annual malaria incidence for 2 years follow-up: year 1 (July 2008-June 2009) and year 2 (July 2009-June 2010).ResultsIn total, 685 P. falciparum episodes (in 492 HHs) and 385 P. vivax episodes (in 290 HHs) were identified, representing respectively incidence rates of 14.6 (95% CI: 13.4-15.6) and 8.2 (95% CI: 7.3-9.1) per 1000 child-months at risk. In year 1, the most likely (128 HHs with 63 episodes, RR = 2.1) and secondary (15 HHs with 12 episodes, RR = 5.31) clusters of P. vivax incidence were found respectively in southern and north-western villages; while in year 2, the most likely cluster was located only in north-western villages (85 HHs with 16 episodes, RR = 4.4). Instead, most likely spatial clusters of P. falciparum incidence were consistently located in villages south of the dam in both years: year 1 (167 HHs with 81 episodes, RR = 1.8) and year 2 (133 HHs with 67 episodes, RR = 2.2). Space-time clusters in southern villages for P. vivax were found in August-November 2008 in year 1 and between November 2009 and February 2010 in year 2; while for P. falciparum, they were found in September-November 2008 in year 1 and October-November 2009 in year 2.ConclusionHotspots of P. falciparum incidence in children were more stable at the geographical level and over time compared to those of P. vivax incidence during the study period.

Project description:Malaria and HIV are two major causes of morbidity and mortality among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa. Foetal and neonatal outcomes of this co-infection have been extensively studied. However, little is known about maternal morbidity due to clinical malaria in pregnancy, especially malaria-related fever, in the era of generalized access to antiretroviral therapy and anti-malarial preventive strategies.A cohort study was conducted in order to estimate the incidence rate and to determine the factors associated with malaria-related fever, as well as the maternal morbidity attributable to malaria in a high-transmission setting of South Benin among HIV-infected pregnant women. Four-hundred and thirty-two women who participated in a randomized trial testing strategies to prevent malaria in pregnancy were included and followed until delivery, with at least three scheduled visits during pregnancy. Confirmed malaria-related fever was defined as axillary temperature >37.5°C and a concomitant, positive, thick blood smear or rapid diagnostic test for Plasmodium falciparum. Suspected malaria-related fever was defined as an axillary temperature >37.5°C and the concomitant administration of an anti-malarial treatment in the absence of parasitological investigation.Incidence rate for confirmed malaria-related fever was of 127.9 per 1,000 person-year (PY) (95% confidence interval (CI): 77.4-211.2). In multivariate analysis, CD4 lymphocytes (Relative Risk (RR) for a 50 cells/mm3 variation?=?0.82; CI: 0.71-0.96), antiretroviral treatment started before inclusion (RR?=?0.34; CI: 0.12-0.98) and history of symptomatic malaria in early pregnancy (RR?=?7.10; CI: 2.35-22.49) were associated with the incidence of confirmed or suspected malaria-related fever. More than a half of participants with parasitaemia were symptomatic, with fever being the most common symptom. The crude fraction of febrile episodes attributable to malaria was estimated at 91%.This work highlights that malaria is responsible for a substantial morbidity in HIV-infected pregnant women, with cellular immunodepression as a major determinant, and establishes the possible advantage offered by the early initiation of antiretroviral treatment.PACOME Study has been registered under the number NCT00970879.

Project description:BackgroundIn vivo efficacy assessments of the first-line treatments for Plasmodium falciparum malaria are essential for ensuring effective case management. In Ethiopia, artemether-lumefantrine (AL) has been the first-line treatment for uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria since 2004.MethodsBetween October and November 2009, we conducted a 42-day, single arm, open label study of AL for P. falciparum in individuals >6 months of age at two sites in Oromia State, Ethiopia. Eligible patients who had documented P. falciparum mono-infection were enrolled and followed according to the standard 2009 World Health Organization in vivo drug efficacy monitoring protocol. The primary and secondary endpoints were PCR uncorrected and corrected cure rates, as measured by adequate clinical and parasitological response on days 28 and 42, respectively.ResultsOf 4426 patients tested, 120 with confirmed falciparum malaria were enrolled and treated with AL. Follow-up was completed for 112 patients at day 28 and 104 patients at day 42. There was one late parasitological failure, which was classified as undetermined after genotyping. Uncorrected cure rates at both day 28 and 42 for the per protocol analysis were 99.1% (95% CI 95.1-100.0); corrected cure rates at both day 28 and 42 were 100.0%. Uncorrected cure rates at day 28 and 42 for the intention to treat analysis were 93.3% (95% CI 87.2-97.1) and 86.6% (95% CI 79.1-92.1), respectively, while the corrected cure rates at day 28 and 42 were 94.1% (95% CI 88.2-97.6) and 87.3% (95% CI 79.9-92.7), respectively. Using survival analysis, the unadjusted cure rate was 99.1% and 100.0% adjusted by genotyping for day 28 and 42, respectively. Eight P. falciparum patients (6.7%) presented with Plasmodium vivax infection during follow-up and were excluded from the per protocol analysis. Only one patient had persistent parasitaemia at day 3. No serious adverse events were reported, with cough and nausea/vomiting being the most common adverse events.ConclusionsAL remains a highly effective and well-tolerated treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria in the study setting after several years of universal access to AL. A high rate of parasitaemia with P. vivax possibly from relapse or new infection was observed.Trial registrationNCT01052584.

Dataset Information

Predictors of Plasmodium falciparum malaria incidence in Chano Mille, South Ethiopia: a longitudinal study.

Publications

Predictors of Plasmodium falciparum malaria incidence in Chano Mille, South Ethiopia: a longitudinal study.

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