Dataset Information

Estimating Size and Trend of the North Interlake Woodland Caribou Population Using Fecal-DNA and Capture-Recapture Models.

ABSTRACT: A critical step in recovery efforts for endangered and threatened species is the monitoring of population demographic parameters. As part of these efforts, we evaluated the use of fecal-DNA based capture-recapture methods to estimate population sizes and population rate of change for the North Interlake woodland caribou herd (Rangifer tarandus caribou), Manitoba, Canada. This herd is part of the boreal population of woodland caribou, listed as threatened under the federal Species at Risk Act (2003) and the provincial Manitoba Endangered Species Act (2006). Between 2004 and 2009 (9 surveys), we collected 1,080 fecal samples and identified 180 unique genotypes (102 females and 78 males). We used a robust design survey plan with 2 surveys in most years and analysed the data with Program MARK to estimate encounter rates (p), apparent survival rates (?), rates of population change (?), and population sizes (N). We estimated these demographic parameters for males and females and for 2 genetic clusters within the North Interlake. The population size estimates were larger for the Lower than the Upper North Interlake area and the proportion of males was lower in the Lower (33%) than the Upper North Interlake (49%). Population rate of change for the entire North Interlake area (2005-2009) using the robust design Pradel model was significantly <1.0 (? = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.82-0.99) and varied between sex and area with the highest being for males in Lower North Interlake (? = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.83-1.13) and the lowest being for females in Upper North Interlake (? = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.69-0.97). The additivity of ? between sex and area is supported on the log scale and translates into males having a ? that is 0.09 greater than females and independent of sex, Lower North Interlake having a ? that is 0.06 greater than Upper North Interlake. Population estimates paralleled these declining trends, which correspond to trends observed in other fragmented populations of woodland caribou along the southern part of their range. The results of this study clearly demonstrate the applicability and success of non-invasive genetic sampling in monitoring populations of woodland caribou. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.

SUBMITTER: Hettinga PN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3437481 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating Size and Trend of the North Interlake Woodland Caribou Population Using Fecal-DNA and Capture-Recapture Models.

Hettinga Peter N PN Arnason Arni Neil AN Manseau Micheline M Cross Dale D Whaley Kent K Wilson Paul J PJ

The Journal of Wildlife Management. 20120405 6

A critical step in recovery efforts for endangered and threatened species is the monitoring of population demographic parameters. As part of these efforts, we evaluated the use of fecal-DNA based capture-recapture methods to estimate population sizes and population rate of change for the North Interlake woodland caribou herd (Rangifer tarandus caribou), Manitoba, Canada. This herd is part of the boreal population of woodland caribou, listed as threatened under the federal Species at Risk Act (20 ...[more]

PMID: 22973066

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Key populations, including people who inject drugs (PWID), men who have sex with men (MSM), and female sex workers (FSW), are disproportionately affected by the HIV epidemic. Understanding the magnitude of, and informing the public health response to, the HIV epidemic among these populations requires accurate size estimates. However, low social visibility poses challenges to these efforts. OBJECTIVE:The objective of this study was to derive population size estimates of PWID, MSM, and FSW in Kampala using capture-recapture. METHODS:Between June and October 2017, unique objects were distributed to the PWID, MSM, and FSW populations in Kampala. PWID, MSM, and FSW were each sampled during 3 independent captures; unique objects were offered in captures 1 and 2. PWID, MSM, and FSW sampled during captures 2 and 3 were asked if they had received either or both of the distributed objects. All captures were completed 1 week apart. The numbers of PWID, MSM, and FSW receiving one or both objects were determined. Population size estimates were derived using the Lincoln-Petersen method for 2-source capture-recapture (PWID) and Bayesian nonparametric latent-class model for 3-source capture-recapture (MSM and FSW). RESULTS:We sampled 467 PWID in capture 1 and 450 in capture 2; a total of 54 PWID were captured in both. We sampled 542, 574, and 598 MSM in captures 1, 2, and 3, respectively. There were 70 recaptures between captures 1 and 2, 103 recaptures between captures 2 and 3, and 155 recaptures between captures 1 and 3. There were 57 MSM captured in all 3 captures. We sampled 962, 965, and 1417 FSW in captures 1, 2, and 3, respectively. There were 316 recaptures between captures 1 and 2, 214 recaptures between captures 2 and 3, and 235 recaptures between captures 1 and 3. There were 109 FSW captured in all 3 rounds. The estimated number of PWID was 3892 (3090-5126), the estimated number of MSM was 14,019 (95% credible interval (CI) 4995-40,949), and the estimated number of FSW was 8848 (95% CI 6337-17,470). CONCLUSIONS:Our population size estimates for PWID, MSM, and FSW in Kampala provide critical population denominator data to inform HIV prevention and treatment programs. The 3-source capture-recapture is a feasible method to advance key population size estimation.

Project description:Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) are threatened in Canada, with population and distribution declines evident in most regions of the country. Causes of declines are linked to landscape change from forest fires and human development, notably forestry oil and gas activities, which result in caribou habitat loss and affect ecosystem food webs. The Federal Species at Risk Act requires effective protection and restoration of caribou habitat, with actions to increase caribou survival. These requirements call for effective monitoring of caribou population trends to gauge success. Many woodland caribou populations are nearly impossible to count using traditional aerial survey methods, but demographic-based monitoring approaches can be used to estimate population trends based on population modeling of vital rates from marked animals. Monitoring programs have used a well-known simple population model (the Recruitment-Mortality [R/M] equation) to estimate demographic rates for woodland caribou, but have faced challenges in managing large data streams and providing transparency in the demographic estimation process. We present a stand-alone statistical software application using open-source software to permit efficient, transparent, and replicable demographic estimation for woodland caribou populations. We developed an easy-to-use, interactive web-based application for the R/M population model that uses a Bayesian estimation approach and provides the user flexibility in choice of prior distributions and other output features. We illustrate the web-application to the A la Pêche Southern Mountain (Central Group) woodland caribou population in west-central Alberta, Canada, during 1998-2017. Our estimates of population demographics are consistent with previous research on this population and highlight the utility of the application in assessing caribou population responses to species recovery actions. We provide example data, computer code, the web-based application package, and a user manual to guide installation and use. We also review underlying assumptions and challenges of population monitoring in this case study. We expect our software will contribute to efficient monitoring of woodland caribou and help in the assessment of recovery actions for this species. © 2019 The Authors. Wildlife Society Bulletin Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dataset Information

Estimating Size and Trend of the North Interlake Woodland Caribou Population Using Fecal-DNA and Capture-Recapture Models.

Publications

Estimating Size and Trend of the North Interlake Woodland Caribou Population Using Fecal-DNA and Capture-Recapture Models.

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