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Time to pregnancy: a computational method for using the duration of non-conception for predicting conception.

ABSTRACT: An important problem in reproductive medicine is deciding when people who have failed to become pregnant without medical assistance should begin investigation and treatment. This study describes a computational approach to determining what can be deduced about a couple's future chances of pregnancy from the number of menstrual cycles over which they have been trying to conceive. The starting point is that a couple's fertility is inherently uncertain. This uncertainty is modelled as a probability distribution for the chance of conceiving in each menstrual cycle. We have developed a general numerical computational method, which uses Bayes' theorem to generate a posterior distribution for a couple's chance of conceiving in each cycle, conditional on the number of previous cycles of attempted conception. When various metrics of a couple's expected chances of pregnancy were computed as a function of the number of cycles over which they had been trying to conceive, we found good fits to observed data on time to pregnancy for different populations. The commonly-used standard of 12 cycles of non-conception as an indicator of subfertility was found to be reasonably robust, though a larger or smaller number of cycles may be more appropriate depending on the population from which a couple is drawn and the precise subfertility metric which is most relevant, for example the probability of conception in the next cycle or the next 12 cycles. We have also applied our computational method to model the impact of female reproductive ageing. Results indicate that, for women over the age of 35, it may be appropriate to start investigation and treatment more quickly than for younger women. Ignoring reproductive decline during the period of attempted conception added up to two cycles to the computed number of cycles before reaching a metric of subfertility.

SUBMITTER: Sozou PD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3464305 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Time to pregnancy: a computational method for using the duration of non-conception for predicting conception.

Sozou Peter D PD Hartshorne Geraldine M GM

PloS one 20121004 10

An important problem in reproductive medicine is deciding when people who have failed to become pregnant without medical assistance should begin investigation and treatment. This study describes a computational approach to determining what can be deduced about a couple's future chances of pregnancy from the number of menstrual cycles over which they have been trying to conceive. The starting point is that a couple's fertility is inherently uncertain. This uncertainty is modelled as a probability ...[more]

PMID: 23056338

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Project description:BackgroundRecent efforts in HIV-1 vaccine design have focused on immunogens that evoke potent neutralizing antibody responses to a broad spectrum of viruses circulating worldwide. However, the development of effective vaccines will depend on the identification and characterization of the neutralizing antibodies and their epitopes. We developed bioinformatics methods to predict epitope networks and antigenic determinants using structural information, as well as corresponding genotypes and phenotypes generated by a highly sensitive and reproducible neutralization assay.282 clonal envelope sequences from a multiclade panel of HIV-1 viruses were tested in viral neutralization assays with an array of broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (mAbs: b12, PG9,16, PGT121 - 128, PGT130 - 131, PGT135 - 137, PGT141 - 145, and PGV04). We correlated IC50 titers with the envelope sequences, and used this information to predict antibody epitope networks. Structural patches were defined as amino acid groups based on solvent-accessibility, radius, atomic depth, and interaction networks within 3D envelope models. We applied a boosted algorithm consisting of multiple machine-learning and statistical models to evaluate these patches as possible antibody epitope regions, evidenced by strong correlations with the neutralization response for each antibody.ResultsWe identified patch clusters with significant correlation to IC50 titers as sites that impact neutralization sensitivity and therefore are potentially part of the antibody binding sites. Predicted epitope networks were mostly located within the variable loops of the envelope glycoprotein (gp120), particularly in V1/V2. Site-directed mutagenesis experiments involving residues identified as epitope networks across multiple mAbs confirmed association of these residues with loss or gain of neutralization sensitivity.ConclusionsComputational methods were implemented to rapidly survey protein structures and predict epitope networks associated with response to individual monoclonal antibodies, which resulted in the identification and deeper understanding of immunological hotspots targeted by broadly neutralizing HIV-1 antibodies.

Project description:BackgroundImprovement in the prediction and prevention of severe maternal morbidity (SMM) - a range of life-threatening conditions during pregnancy, at delivery or within 42 days postpartum - is a public health priority. Reduction of SMM at a population level would be facilitated by early identification and prediction. We sought to develop and internally validate a model to predict maternal end-organ injury or death using variables routinely collected during pre-pregnancy and the early pregnancy period.MethodsWe performed a population-based cohort study using linked administrative health data in Ontario, Canada, from April 1, 2006 to March 31, 2014. We included women aged 18-60 years with a livebirth or stillbirth, of which one birth was randomly selected per woman. We constructed a clinical prediction model for the primary composite outcome of any maternal end-organ injury or death, arising between 20 weeks' gestation and 42 days after the birth hospital discharge date. Our model included variables collected from 12 months before estimated conception until 19 weeks' gestation. We developed a separate model for parous women to allow for the inclusion of factors from previous pregnancy(ies).ResultsOf 634,290 women, 1969 experienced the primary composite outcome (3.1 per 1000). Predictive factors in the main model included maternal world region of origin, chronic medical conditions, parity, and obstetrical/perinatal issues - with moderate model discrimination (C-statistic 0.68, 95% CI 0.66-0.69). Among 333,435 parous women, the C-statistic was 0.71 (0.69-0.73) in the model using variables from the current (index) pregnancy as well as pre-pregnancy predictors and variables from any previous pregnancy.ConclusionsA combination of factors ascertained early in pregnancy through a basic medical history help to identify women at risk for severe morbidity, who may benefit from targeted preventive and surveillance strategies including appropriate specialty-based antenatal care pathways. Further refinement and external validation of this model are warranted and can support evidence-based improvements in clinical practice.

Dataset Information

Time to pregnancy: a computational method for using the duration of non-conception for predicting conception.

Publications

Time to pregnancy: a computational method for using the duration of non-conception for predicting conception.

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