Projected impact of urbanization on cardiovascular disease in China.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT: Objectives
The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model-China, a national scale cardiovascular disease computer simulation model, was used to project future impact of urbanization.Methods
Populations and cardiovascular disease incidence rates were stratified into four submodels: North-Urban, South-Urban, North-Rural, and South-Rural. 2010 was the base year, and high and low urbanization rate scenarios were used to project 2030 populations.Results
Rural-to-urban migration, population growth, and aging were projected to more than double cardiovascular disease events in urban areas and increase events by 27.0-45.6% in rural areas. Urbanization is estimated to raise age-standardized coronary heart disease incidence by 73-81 per 100,000 and stroke incidence only slightly.Conclusions
Rural-to-urban migration will likely be a major demographic driver of the cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.
SUBMITTER: Chan F
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3465962 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Projected impact of urbanization on cardiovascular disease in China.
Chan Faye F Adamo Susana S Coxson Pamela P Goldman Lee L Gu Dongfeng D Zhao Dong D Chen Chung-Shiuan CS He Jiang J Mara Valentina V Moran Andrew A
International journal of public health 20120824 5
<h4>Objectives</h4>The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model-China, a national scale cardiovascular disease computer simulation model, was used to project future impact of urbanization.<h4>Methods</h4>Populations and cardiovascular disease incidence rates were stratified into four submodels: North-Urban, South-Urban, North-Rural, and South-Rural. 2010 was the base year, and high and low urbanization rate scenarios were used to project 2030 populations.<h4>Results</h4>Rural-to-urban migration ...[more]
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