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Modelling the effects of sanitary policies on European vulture conservation.

ABSTRACT: Biodiversity losses are increasing as a consequence of negative anthropogenic effects on ecosystem dynamics. However, the magnitude and complexity of these effects may still be greatly underestimated. Most Old World vultures have experienced rapid population declines in recent years. In Europe, their immediate conservation depends on changes in health regulations affecting the availability of food provided by domestic carcasses. Information is lacking on the effects of a hypothetical food shortage on the population dynamics of vultures, and is necessary to assess the potential impacts of policy decisions on future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services. A novel computational model (P-systems) was used to model these effects, forecasting a rapid decline in the Eurasian griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus). By contrast, vulture species with greater plasticity in their dietary range appeared less sensitive to declining food availability. This study extends our understanding of vulture ecosystem services, which have social and economic implications.

SUBMITTER: Margalida A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3475340 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling the effects of sanitary policies on European vulture conservation.

Margalida Antoni A Margalida Antoni A Colomer Ma Àngels MÀ

Scientific reports 20121018

Biodiversity losses are increasing as a consequence of negative anthropogenic effects on ecosystem dynamics. However, the magnitude and complexity of these effects may still be greatly underestimated. Most Old World vultures have experienced rapid population declines in recent years. In Europe, their immediate conservation depends on changes in health regulations affecting the availability of food provided by domestic carcasses. Information is lacking on the effects of a hypothetical food shorta ...[more]

PMID: 23082243

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Project description:AimsTo describe gender differences in alcohol consumption, purchasing preferences and alcohol-attributable harm. To model the effects of alcohol pricing policies on male and female consumption and hospitalizations.DesignEpidemiological simulation using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 4.Setting and participantsAdults aged 18+ years, England.InterventionsThree alcohol pricing policies: 10% duty increase and minimum unit prices (MUP) of £0.50 and £0.70 per UK unit.MeasuresGender-specific baseline and key outcomes data: annual beverage-specific units of alcohol consumed and beverage-specific alcohol expenditure (household surveys). Alcohol-attributable hospital admissions (administrative data). Key model parameters: literature-based own- and cross-price elasticities for 10 beverage-by-location categories (e.g. off-trade beer). Sensitivity analysis with new gender-specific elasticities. Literature-based risk functions linking consumption and harm, gender-disaggregated where evidence was available. Population subgroups: 120 subgroups defined by gender (primary focus), age, deprivation quintile and baseline weekly consumption.FindingsWomen consumed 59.7% of their alcohol as off-trade wine while men consumed 49.7% as beer. Women drinkers consumed fewer units annually than men (494 versus 895) and a smaller proportion of women were high-risk drinkers (4.8 versus 7.2%). Moderate drinking women had lower hospital admission rates than men (44 versus 547 per 100 000), but rates were similar for high-risk drinking women and men (14 294 versus 13 167 per 100 000). All three policies led to larger estimated reductions in consumption and admission rates among men than women. For example, a £0.50 MUP led to a 5.3% reduction in consumption and a 4.1% reduction in admissions for men but a 0.7% reduction in consumption and a 1.6% reduction in hospitalizations for women.ConclusionAlcohol consumption, purchasing preferences and harm show strong gender patterns among adult drinkers in England. Alcohol pricing policies are estimated to be more effective at reducing consumption and harm for men than women.

Project description:Vultures provide an essential ecosystem service through removal of carrion, but globally, many populations are collapsing and several species are threatened with extinction. Widespread declines in vulture populations could increase the availability of carrion to other organisms, but the ways facultative scavengers might respond to this increase have not been thoroughly explored. We aimed to determine whether facultative scavengers increase carrion consumption in the absence of vulture competition and whether they are capable of functionally replacing vultures in the removal of carrion biomass from the landscape. We experimentally excluded 65 rabbit carcasses from vultures during daylight hours and placed an additional 65 carcasses that were accessible to vultures in forested habitat in South Carolina, USA during summer (June-August). We used motion-activated cameras to compare carrion use by facultative scavenging species between the experimental and control carcasses. Scavenging by facultative scavengers did not increase in the absence of competition with vultures. We found no difference in scavenger presence between control carcasses and those from which vultures were excluded. Eighty percent of carcasses from which vultures were excluded were not scavenged by vertebrates, compared to 5% of carcasses that were accessible to vultures. At the end of the 7-day trials, there was a 10.1-fold increase in the number of experimental carcasses that were not fully scavenged compared to controls. Facultative scavengers did not functionally replace vultures during summer in our study. This finding may have been influenced by the time of the year in which the study took place, the duration of the trials, and the spacing of carcass sites. Our results suggest that under the warm and humid conditions of our study, facultative scavengers would not compensate for loss of vultures. Carcasses would persist longer in the environment and consumption of carrion would likely shift from vertebrates to decomposers. Such changes could have substantial implications for disease transmission, nutrient cycling, and ecosystem functioning.

Project description:High bycatch of non-target species and species of conservation concern often drives the implementation of fisheries policies. However, species- or fishery-specific policies may lead to indirect consequences, positive or negative, for other species or fisheries. We use an Atlantis ecosystem model of the Northern Gulf of California to evaluate the effects of fisheries policies directed at reducing bycatch of vaquita (Phocoena sinus) on other species of conservation concern, priority target species, and metrics of ecosystem function and structure. Vaquita, a Critically Endangered porpoise endemic to the Upper Gulf of California, are frequently entangled by finfish gillnets and shrimp driftnets. We tested five fishery management scenarios, projected over 30 years (2008 to 2038), directed at vaquita conservation. The scenarios consider progressively larger spatial restrictions for finfish gillnets and shrimp driftnets. The most restrictive scenario resulted in the highest biomass of species of conservation concern; the scenario without any conservation measures in place resulted in the lowest. Vaquita experienced the largest population increase of any functional group; their biomass increased 2.7 times relative to initial (2008) levels under the most restrictive spatial closure scenario. Bycatch of sea lions, sea turtles, and totoaba decreased > 80% in shrimp driftnets and at least 20% in finfish gillnet fleets under spatial management. We found indirect effects on species and ecosystem function and structure as a result of vaquita management actions. Biomass and catch of forage fish declined, which could affect lower-trophic level fisheries, while other species such as skates, rays, and sharks increased in both biomass and catch. When comparing across performance metrics, we found that scenarios that increased ecosystem function and structure resulted in lower economic performance indicators, underscoring the need for management actions that consider ecological and economic tradeoffs as part of the integrated management of the Upper Gulf of California.

Dataset Information

Modelling the effects of sanitary policies on European vulture conservation.

Publications

Modelling the effects of sanitary policies on European vulture conservation.

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