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Survival prediction based on compound covariate under Cox proportional hazard models.

ABSTRACT: Survival prediction from a large number of covariates is a current focus of statistical and medical research. In this paper, we study a methodology known as the compound covariate prediction performed under univariate Cox proportional hazard models. We demonstrate via simulations and real data analysis that the compound covariate method generally competes well with ridge regression and Lasso methods, both already well-studied methods for predicting survival outcomes with a large number of covariates. Furthermore, we develop a refinement of the compound covariate method by incorporating likelihood information from multivariate Cox models. The new proposal is an adaptive method that borrows information contained in both the univariate and multivariate Cox regression estimators. We show that the new proposal has a theoretical justification from a statistical large sample theory and is naturally interpreted as a shrinkage-type estimator, a popular class of estimators in statistical literature. Two datasets, the primary biliary cirrhosis of the liver data and the non-small-cell lung cancer data, are used for illustration. The proposed method is implemented in R package "compound.Cox" available in CRAN at http://cran.r-project.org/.

SUBMITTER: Emura T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3480451 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Survival prediction based on compound covariate under Cox proportional hazard models.

Emura Takeshi T Chen Yi-Hau YH Chen Hsuan-Yu HY

PloS one 20121024 10

Survival prediction from a large number of covariates is a current focus of statistical and medical research. In this paper, we study a methodology known as the compound covariate prediction performed under univariate Cox proportional hazard models. We demonstrate via simulations and real data analysis that the compound covariate method generally competes well with ridge regression and Lasso methods, both already well-studied methods for predicting survival outcomes with a large number of covari ...[more]

PMID: 23112827

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Project description:BackgroundWith the increase in the world's aging population, there is a growing need to prevent and predict dementia among the general population. The availability of national time-series health examination data in South Korea provides an opportunity to use deep learning algorithm, an artificial intelligence technology, to expedite the analysis of mass and sequential data.ObjectiveThis study aimed to compare the discriminative accuracy between a time-series deep learning algorithm and conventional statistical methods to predict all-cause dementia and Alzheimer dementia using periodic health examination data.MethodsDiagnostic codes in medical claims data from a South Korean national health examination cohort were used to identify individuals who developed dementia or Alzheimer dementia over a 10-year period. As a result, 479,845 and 465,081 individuals, who were aged 40 to 79 years and without all-cause dementia and Alzheimer dementia, respectively, were identified at baseline. The performance of the following 3 models was compared with predictions of which individuals would develop either type of dementia: Cox proportional hazards model using only baseline data (HR-B), Cox proportional hazards model using repeated measurements (HR-R), and deep learning model using repeated measurements (DL-R).ResultsThe discrimination indices (95% CI) for the HR-B, HR-R, and DL-R models to predict all-cause dementia were 0.84 (0.83-0.85), 0.87 (0.86-0.88), and 0.90 (0.90-0.90), respectively, and those to predict Alzheimer dementia were 0.87 (0.86-0.88), 0.90 (0.88-0.91), and 0.91 (0.91-0.91), respectively. The DL-R model showed the best performance, followed by the HR-R model, in predicting both types of dementia. The DL-R model was superior to the HR-R model in all validation groups tested.ConclusionsA deep learning algorithm using time-series data can be an accurate and cost-effective method to predict dementia. A combination of deep learning and proportional hazards models might help to enhance prevention strategies for dementia.

Project description:ObjectivesThis study aimed to establish and validate a prognostic model based on magnetic resonance imaging and clinical features to predict the survival time of patients with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM).MethodsIn this study, a convolutional denoising autoencoder (DAE) network combined with the loss function of the Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to extract features for survival prediction. In addition, the Kaplan-Meier curve, the Schoenfeld residual analysis, the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, the nomogram, and the calibration curve were performed to assess the survival prediction ability.ResultsThe concordance index (C-index) of the survival prediction model, which combines the DAE and the Cox proportional hazard regression model, reached 0.78 in the training set, 0.75 in the validation set, and 0.74 in the test set. Patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups based on the median prognostic index (PI). Kaplan-Meier curve was used for survival analysis (p = < 2e-16 in the training set, p = 3e-04 in the validation set, and p = 0.007 in the test set), which showed that the survival probability of different groups was significantly different, and the PI of the network played an influential role in the prediction of survival probability. In the residual verification of the PI, the fitting curve of the scatter plot was roughly parallel to the x-axis, and the p-value of the test was 0.11, proving that the PI and survival time were independent of each other and the survival prediction ability of the PI was less affected than survival time. The areas under the curve of the training set were 0.843, 0.871, 0.903, and 0.941; those of the validation set were 0.687, 0.895, 1.000, and 0.967; and those of the test set were 0.757, 0.852, 0.683, and 0.898.ConclusionThe survival prediction model, which combines the DAE and the Cox proportional hazard regression model, can effectively predict the prognosis of patients with GBM.

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Survival prediction based on compound covariate under Cox proportional hazard models.

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Survival prediction based on compound covariate under Cox proportional hazard models.

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