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Development of an accurate index for predicting outcomes of patients with acute liver failure.

ABSTRACT: Patients with acute liver failure (ALF) have high mortality and frequently require liver transplantation (LT); few reliable prognostic markers are available. Levels of M30, a cleavage product of cytokeratin-18 caspase, are significantly increased in serum samples from patients with ALF who die or undergo LT. We developed a prognostic index for ALF based on level of M30 and commonly measured clinical variables (called the Acute Liver Failure Study Group [ALFSG] index) and compared its accuracy with that of the King's College criteria (KCC) and Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD). We also validated our model in an independent group of patients with ALF.Serum levels of M30 and M65 antigen (the total cytokeratin-18 fragment, a marker of apoptosis and necrosis) were measured on 3 of the first 4 days following admission of 250 patients with ALF. Logistic regression was used to determine whether the following factors, measured on day 1, were associated with LT or death: age, etiology; coma grade; international normalized ratio (INR); serum pH; body mass index; levels of creatinine, bilirubin, phosphorus, arterial ammonia, and lactate; and log(10) M30 and log(10) M65. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) was calculated for the ALFSG and other indices.Coma grade, INR, levels of bilirubin and phosphorus, and log(10) M30 value at study entry most accurately identified patients who would require LT or die. The ALFSG index identified these patients with 85.6% sensitivity and 64.7% specificity. Based on comparison of AUROC values, the ALFSG Index (AUROC, 0.822) better identified patients most likely to require LT or die than the KCC (AUROC, 0.654) or MELD (AUROC, 0.704) (P = .0002 and P = .0010, respectively). We validated these findings in a separate group of 250 patients with ALF.The ALFSG index, a combination of clinical markers and measurements of the apoptosis biomarker M30, better predicts outcomes of patients with ALF than the KCC or MELD.

SUBMITTER: Rutherford A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3480539 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development of an accurate index for predicting outcomes of patients with acute liver failure.

Rutherford Anna A King Lindsay Y LY Hynan Linda S LS Vedvyas Chetan C Lin Wenyu W Lee William M WM Chung Raymond T RT

Gastroenterology 20120808 5

<h4>Background & aims</h4>Patients with acute liver failure (ALF) have high mortality and frequently require liver transplantation (LT); few reliable prognostic markers are available. Levels of M30, a cleavage product of cytokeratin-18 caspase, are significantly increased in serum samples from patients with ALF who die or undergo LT. We developed a prognostic index for ALF based on level of M30 and commonly measured clinical variables (called the Acute Liver Failure Study Group [ALFSG] index) an ...[more]

PMID: 22885329

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Project description:BackgroundIt is widely known that muscle mass influences the outcomes of many chronic diseases. Erector spine mass is a convenient parameter obtained from routine abdominal computed tomography (CT). The clinical application value of erector spine mass, and whether erector spine mass could predict the outcome of disease has not been studied.AimTo evaluate the role of the erector spine index (ESI) calculated based on abdominal CT imaging in the progression of acute-on-chronic liver failure related to the hepatitis B virus (HBV-ACLF).MethodsWe performed a retrospective study of 118 HBV-ACLF patients and calculated the ESI (the total erector spine area normalized for height2 in meters) for each patient through abdominal CT. The findings were analyzed regarding the progression of HBV-ACLF and the ESI at baseline, including mortality and the development of complications.ResultsThe ESI level was associated with mortality and the development of complications. During the 90-day follow-up period, patients with a low ESI (<12.05 cm2/m2) had higher mortality than those with a high ESI (≥ 12.05 cm2/m2) (51.7% vs. 26.7%), and the cumulative survival rates were 71.0%±4.6 and 85.8%±3.9, respectively (log-rank P = 0.003). The hazard ratios (HRs) calculated using univariable and multivariable analyses were 2.23(95% confidence interval (CI): 1.25-4.21, P = 0.005) and 2.52 (95% CI: 1.34-9.24, P = 0.011), respectively. Patients with a low ESI (<12.05 cm2/m2) had higher incidences of kidney dysfunction (43.5% vs. 23.2%, P = 0.029; log-rank P = 0.017) and hepatic encephalopathy (39.6% vs. 14.0%, P = 0.003; log-rank P = 0.010) than those with a high ESI. A low ESI was an independent risk factor for kidney dysfunction (adjusted HR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.05-2.93, P = 0.043) and the development of hepatic encephalopathy (adjusted HR = 2.26; 95% CI: 2.05-3.13, P = 0.036). In addition, the presence of hepatic encephalopathy (the odds ratio (OR) = 2.26, 95% CI: 2.05-3.18, P = 0.006), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (OR = 3.95, 95% CI: 1.01-5.46, P = 0.037), and kidney dysfunction (OR = 4.47, 95% CI: 1.02-9.64, P = 0.032) was independently associated with a low ESI in patients.ConclusionA low ESI is an independent risk factor for mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF, as well as the development of kidney dysfunction and hepatic encephalopathy.

Project description:Patients with acute liver failure (ALF) have a high risk of death that can be substantially reduced with liver transplantation. It is a challenge to predict which patients with ALF will survive without liver transplant because available prognostic scoring systems are inadequate. We devised a mathematical model, using a large dataset collected by the Acute Liver Failure Study Group, which can predict transplant-free survival in patients with ALF.We performed a retrospective analysis of data from 1974 subjects who met criteria for ALF (coagulopathy and hepatic encephalopathy within 26 weeks of the first symptoms, without pre-existing liver disease) enrolled in the Acute Liver Failure Study Group database from January 1, 1998 through June 11, 2013. We randomly assigned the subjects to development and validation cohorts. Data from the development cohort were analyzed to identify factors associated with transplant-free survival (alive without transplantation by 21 days after admission to the study). Statistically significant variables were used to create a multivariable logistic regression model.Most subjects were women (70%) and white (78%); acetaminophen overdose was the most common cause (48% of subjects). The rate of transplant-free survival was 50%. Admission values of hepatic encephalopathy grade, ALF etiology, vasopressor use, and log transformations of bilirubin and international normalized ratio were significantly associated with transplant-free survival, based on logistic regression analysis. In the validation cohort, the resulting model predicted transplant-free survival with a C statistic value of 0.84, 66.3% accuracy (95% confidence interval, 63.1%-69.4%), 37.1% sensitivity (95% confidence interval, 32.5%-41.8%), and 95.3% specificity (95% confidence interval, 92.9%-97.1%).Using data from the Acute Liver Failure Study Group, we developed a model that predicts transplant-free survival of patients with ALF based on easily identifiable hospital admission data. External validation studies are required.

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Development of an accurate index for predicting outcomes of patients with acute liver failure.

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Development of an accurate index for predicting outcomes of patients with acute liver failure.

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