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Human initiated cascading failures in societal infrastructures.

ABSTRACT: In this paper, we conduct a systematic study of human-initiated cascading failures in three critical inter-dependent societal infrastructures due to behavioral adaptations in response to a crisis. We focus on three closely coupled socio-technical networks here: (i) cellular and mesh networks, (ii) transportation networks and (iii) mobile call networks. In crises, changes in individual behaviors lead to altered travel, activity and calling patterns, which influence the transport network and the loads on wireless networks. The interaction between these systems and their co-evolution poses significant technical challenges for representing and reasoning about these systems. In contrast to system dynamics models for studying these interacting infrastructures, we develop interaction-based models in which individuals and infrastructure elements are represented in detail and are placed in a common geographic coordinate system. Using the detailed representation, we study the impact of a chemical plume that has been released in a densely populated urban region. Authorities order evacuation of the affected area, and this leads to individual behavioral adaptation wherein individuals drop their scheduled activities and drive to home or pre-specified evacuation shelters as appropriate. They also revise their calling behavior to communicate and coordinate among family members. These two behavioral adaptations cause flash-congestion in the urban transport network and the wireless network. The problem is exacerbated with a few, already occurring, road closures. We analyze how extended periods of unanticipated road congestion can result in failure of infrastructures, starting with the servicing base stations in the congested area. A sensitivity analysis on the compliance rate of evacuees shows non-intuitive effect on the spatial distribution of people and on the loading of the base stations. For example, an evacuation compliance rate of 70% results in higher number of overloaded base stations than the evacuation compliance rate of 90%.

SUBMITTER: Barrett C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3485300 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Human initiated cascading failures in societal infrastructures.

Barrett Chris C Channakeshava Karthik K Huang Fei F Kim Junwhan J Marathe Achla A Marathe Madhav V MV Pei Guanhong G Saha Sudip S Subbiah Balaaji S P BS Vullikanti Anil Kumar S AK

PloS one 20121031 10

In this paper, we conduct a systematic study of human-initiated cascading failures in three critical inter-dependent societal infrastructures due to behavioral adaptations in response to a crisis. We focus on three closely coupled socio-technical networks here: (i) cellular and mesh networks, (ii) transportation networks and (iii) mobile call networks. In crises, changes in individual behaviors lead to altered travel, activity and calling patterns, which influence the transport network and the l ...[more]

PMID: 23118847

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Project description:In our study, we introduce indicators that quantify the influence of each country in complex trade scenarios involving the exchange of raw materials, intermediate goods, and final products across multiple countries. We systematically employ an agent-based model to simulate the propagation of failures from one node to the entire network. This approach allows for the assessment of the impact of each country and the identification of patterns of interaction in the multi-step trade network. Unlike conventional analyses of trade networks, which depict straightforward single-step import/export transactions, our approach captures the intricate realities of processes like raw material procurement, production, and sales in numerous countries from a macroscopic perspective. The findings of our analysis of trade data spanning from 1990 to 2022 reveal several key insights. Firstly, sensitivity to changes in trade volume leading to global failures within interconnected networks has intensified over time. The potential of failure propagation across countries has increased over time, as has the interconnectedness of countries in the global trade landscape. Secondly, despite the increased sensitivity to changes in global trade volume, many countries have become less vulnerable to the influence of others within their multi-step trade networks. This trend aligns with deglobalization, which is evidenced by events such as Brexit and the surge in protectionist measures; these changes indicate a shift in the balance of influence within global trade networks. Thirdly, the results of our analysis of the relationship between load changes and global failures from a regional perspective reveal an intriguing phenomenon: despite limited direct trade connectivity, the interaction between the Latin American and Sub-Saharan African regions is considerable. This suggests the existence of hidden connections between intermediary countries, such that one region's actions can alter the load sensitivity of another, impacting them in unforeseen ways. Furthermore, intra-regional interactions are diminishing in East Asia, while Europe is experiencing a gradual increase in interactions. These trends reflect evolving regional influence, the dynamics of geographic proximity, and the results of economic integration efforts. Additionally, even though the observed period was not long enough to confirm a long-term trend, the previous trend direction was affirmed to persist despite a temporary decrease in trading and reduced sensitivity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our study highlights the complexity of global trade dynamics and the need to consider multi-step trade networks and their potential cascading effects when analyzing trade patterns and vulnerabilities.

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Human initiated cascading failures in societal infrastructures.

Publications

Human initiated cascading failures in societal infrastructures.

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