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Effective/census population size ratio estimation: a compendium and appraisal.

ABSTRACT: With an ecological-evolutionary perspective increasingly applied toward the conservation and management of endangered or exploited species, the genetic estimation of effective population size (N(e)) has proliferated. Based on a comprehensive analysis of empirical literature from the past two decades, we asked: (i) how often do studies link N(e) to the adult census population size (N)? (ii) To what extent is N(e) correctly linked to N? (iii) How readily is uncertainty accounted for in both N(e) and N when quantifying N(e)/N ratios? and (iv) how frequently and to what degree might errors in the estimation of N(e) or N affect inferences of N(e)/N ratios? We found that only 20% of available N(e) estimates (508 of 2617; 233 studies) explicitly attempted to link N(e) and N; of these, only 31% (160 of 508) correctly linked N(e) and N. Moreover, only 7% (41 of 508) of N(e)/N ratios (correctly linked or not) reported confidence intervals for both N(e) and N; for those cases where confidence intervals were reported for N(e) only, 31% of N(e)/N ratios overlapped with 1, of which more than half also reached below N(e)/N = 0.01. Uncertainty in N(e)/N ratios thus sometimes spanned at least two orders of magnitude. We conclude that the estimation of N(e)/N ratios in natural populations could be significantly improved, discuss several options for doing so, and briefly outline some future research directions.

SUBMITTER: Palstra FP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3488685 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effective/census population size ratio estimation: a compendium and appraisal.

Palstra Friso P FP Fraser Dylan J DJ

Ecology and evolution 20120725 9

With an ecological-evolutionary perspective increasingly applied toward the conservation and management of endangered or exploited species, the genetic estimation of effective population size (N(e)) has proliferated. Based on a comprehensive analysis of empirical literature from the past two decades, we asked: (i) how often do studies link N(e) to the adult census population size (N)? (ii) To what extent is N(e) correctly linked to N? (iii) How readily is uncertainty accounted for in both N(e) a ...[more]

PMID: 23139893

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Project description:BackgroundEffective population size (Ne) is a crucial parameter in conservation genetics and animal breeding. A recent method, implemented by the software GONE, has been shown to be rather accurate in estimating recent historical changes in Ne from a single sample of individuals. However, GONE estimations assume that the population being studied has remained isolated for a period of time, that is, without migration or confluence of other populations. If this occurs, the estimates of Ne can be heavily biased. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of migration and admixture on the estimates of historical Ne provided by GONE through a series of computer simulations considering several scenarios: (a) the mixture of two or more ancestral populations; (b) subpopulations that continuously exchange individuals through migration; (c) populations receiving migrants from a large source; and (d) populations with balanced systems of chromosomal inversions, which also generate genetic structure.ResultsOur results indicate that the estimates of historical Ne provided by GONE may be substantially biased when there has been a recent mixture of populations that were previously separated for a long period of time. Similarly, biases may occur when the rate of continued migration between populations is low, or when chromosomal inversions are present at high frequencies. However, some biases due to population structuring can be eliminated by conducting population structure analyses and restricting the estimation to the differentiated groups. In addition, disregarding the genomic regions that are involved in inversions can also remove biases in the estimates of Ne.ConclusionsDifferent kinds of deviations from isolation and panmixia of the populations can generate biases in the recent historical estimates of Ne. Therefore, estimation of past demography could benefit from performing population structure analyses beforehand, by mitigating the impact of these biases on historical Ne estimates.

Dataset Information

Effective/census population size ratio estimation: a compendium and appraisal.

Publications

Effective/census population size ratio estimation: a compendium and appraisal.

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