Dataset Information

Epidemic features affecting the performance of outbreak detection algorithms.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Outbreak detection algorithms play an important role in effective automated surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed to improve the performance of outbreak detection, few published studies have examined how epidemic features of infectious disease impact on the detection performance of algorithms. This study compared the performance of three outbreak detection algorithms stratified by epidemic features of infectious disease and examined the relationship between epidemic features and performance of outbreak detection algorithms.

Methods

Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), cumulative sum (CUSUM) and moving percentile method (MPM) algorithms were applied. We inserted simulated outbreaks into notifiable infectious disease data in China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS), and compared the performance of the three algorithms with optimized parameters at a fixed false alarm rate of 5% classified by epidemic features of infectious disease. Multiple linear regression was adopted to analyse the relationship of the algorithms' sensitivity and timeliness with the epidemic features of infectious diseases.

Results

The MPM had better detection performance than EWMA and CUSUM through all simulated outbreaks, with or without stratification by epidemic features (incubation period, baseline counts and outbreak magnitude). The epidemic features were associated with both sensitivity and timeliness. Compared with long incubation, short incubation had lower probability (?*?=?-0.13, P?ConclusionsThe results of this study suggest that the MPM is a prior algorithm for outbreak detection and differences of epidemic features in detection performance should be considered in automatic surveillance practice.

SUBMITTER: Kuang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3489582 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Epidemic features affecting the performance of outbreak detection algorithms.

Kuang Jie J Yang Wei Zhong WZ Zhou Ding Lun DL Li Zhong Jie ZJ Lan Ya Jia YJ

BMC public health 20120608

<h4>Background</h4>Outbreak detection algorithms play an important role in effective automated surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed to improve the performance of outbreak detection, few published studies have examined how epidemic features of infectious disease impact on the detection performance of algorithms. This study compared the performance of three outbreak detection algorithms stratified by epidemic features of infectious disease and examined the relationship between ...[more]

PMID: 22682110

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. METHODS: We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. RESULTS: The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. CONCLUSIONS: This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Project description:ObjectiveTo identify non-EEG-based signals and algorithms for detection of motor and non-motor seizures in people lying in bed during video-EEG (VEEG) monitoring and to test whether these algorithms work in freely moving people during mobile EEG recordings.MethodsData of three groups of adult people with epilepsy (PwE) were analyzed. Group 1 underwent VEEG with additional devices (accelerometry, ECG, electrodermal activity); group 2 underwent VEEG; and group 3 underwent mobile EEG recordings both including one-lead ECG. All seizure types were analyzed. Feature extraction and machine-learning techniques were applied to develop seizure detection algorithms. Performance was expressed as sensitivity, precision, F1 score, and false positives per 24 hours.ResultsThe algorithms were developed in group 1 (35 PwE, 33 seizures) and achieved best results (F1 score 56%, sensitivity 67%, precision 45%, false positives 0.7/24 hours) when ECG features alone were used, with no improvement by including accelerometry and electrodermal activity. In group 2 (97 PwE, 255 seizures), this ECG-based algorithm largely achieved the same performance (F1 score 51%, sensitivity 39%, precision 73%, false positives 0.4/24 hours). In group 3 (30 PwE, 51 seizures), the same ECG-based algorithm failed to meet up with the performance in groups 1 and 2 (F1 score 27%, sensitivity 31%, precision 23%, false positives 1.2/24 hours). ECG-based algorithms were also separately trained on data of groups 2 and 3 and tested on the data of the other groups, yielding maximal F1 scores between 8% and 26%.SignificanceOur results suggest that algorithms based on ECG features alone can provide clinically meaningful performance for automatic detection of all seizure types. Our study also underscores that the circumstances under which such algorithms were developed, and the selection of the training and test data sets need to be considered and limit the application of such systems to unseen patient groups behaving in different conditions.

Dataset Information

Epidemic features affecting the performance of outbreak detection algorithms.

Background

Methods

Results

Publications

Epidemic features affecting the performance of outbreak detection algorithms.

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