Size and complexity in model financial systems.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Arinaminpathy N
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3494937 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundFor complex financial systems, the negative and positive return-volatility correlations, i.e., the so-called leverage and anti-leverage effects, are particularly important for the understanding of the price dynamics. However, the microscopic origination of the leverage and anti-leverage effects is still not understood, and how to produce these effects in agent-based modeling remains open. On the other hand, in constructing microscopic models, it is a promising conception to determine model parameters from empirical data rather than from statistical fitting of the results.MethodsTo study the microscopic origination of the return-volatility correlation in financial systems, we take into account the individual and collective behaviors of investors in real markets, and construct an agent-based model. The agents are linked with each other and trade in groups, and particularly, two novel microscopic mechanisms, i.e., investors' asymmetric trading and herding in bull and bear markets, are introduced. Further, we propose effective methods to determine the key parameters in our model from historical market data.ResultsWith the model parameters determined for six representative stock-market indices in the world, respectively, we obtain the corresponding leverage or anti-leverage effect from the simulation, and the effect is in agreement with the empirical one on amplitude and duration. At the same time, our model produces other features of the real markets, such as the fat-tail distribution of returns and the long-term correlation of volatilities.ConclusionsWe reveal that for the leverage and anti-leverage effects, both the investors' asymmetric trading and herding are essential generation mechanisms. Among the six markets, however, the investors' trading is approximately symmetric for the five markets which exhibit the leverage effect, thus contributing very little. These two microscopic mechanisms and the methods for the determination of the key parameters can be applied to other complex systems with similar asymmetries.
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Project description:Accounting scandals like Enron (2001) and Petrobas (2014) remind us that untrustworthy financial information has an adverse effect on the stability of the economy and can ultimately be a source of systemic risk. This financial information is derived from processes and their related monetary flows within a business. But as the flows are becoming larger and more complex, it becomes increasingly difficult to distill the primary processes for large amounts of transaction data. However, by extracting the primary processes we will be able to detect possible inconsistencies in the information efficiently. We use recent advances in network embedding techniques that have demonstrated promising results regarding node classification problems in domains like biology and sociology. We learned a useful continuous vector representation of the nodes in the network which can be used for the clustering task, such that the clusters represent the meaningful primary processes. The results show that we can extract the relevant primary processes which are similar to the created clusters by a financial expert. Moreover, we construct better predictive models using the flows from the extracted primary processes which can be used to detect inconsistencies. Our work will pave the way towards a more modern technology and data-driven financial audit discipline.
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