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The dynamics of nestedness predicts the evolution of industrial ecosystems.

ABSTRACT: In economic systems, the mix of products that countries make or export has been shown to be a strong leading indicator of economic growth. Hence, methods to characterize and predict the structure of the network connecting countries to the products that they export are relevant for understanding the dynamics of economic development. Here we study the presence and absence of industries in international and domestic economies and show that these networks are significantly nested. This means that the less filled rows and columns of these networks' adjacency matrices tend to be subsets of the fuller rows and columns. Moreover, we show that their nestedness remains constant over time and that it is sustained by both, a bias for industries that deviate from the networks' nestedness to disappear, and a bias for the industries that are missing according to nestedness to appear. This makes the appearance and disappearance of individual industries in each location predictable. We interpret the high level of nestedness observed in these networks in the context of the neutral model of development introduced by Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009). We show that the model can reproduce the high level of nestedness observed in these networks only when we assume a high level of heterogeneity in the distribution of capabilities available in countries and required by products. In the context of the neutral model, this implies that the high level of nestedness observed in these economic networks emerges as a combination of both, the complementarity of inputs and heterogeneity in the number of capabilities available in countries and required by products. The stability of nestedness in industrial ecosystems, and the predictability implied by it, demonstrates the importance of the study of network properties in the evolution of economic networks.

SUBMITTER: Bustos S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3501524 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The dynamics of nestedness predicts the evolution of industrial ecosystems.

Bustos Sebastián S Gomez Charles C Hausmann Ricardo R Hidalgo César A CA Hidalgo César A CA

PloS one 20121119 11

In economic systems, the mix of products that countries make or export has been shown to be a strong leading indicator of economic growth. Hence, methods to characterize and predict the structure of the network connecting countries to the products that they export are relevant for understanding the dynamics of economic development. Here we study the presence and absence of industries in international and domestic economies and show that these networks are significantly nested. This means that th ...[more]

PMID: 23185326

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Resource cycling is a defining process in the maintenance of the biosphere. Microbial communities, ranging from simple to highly diverse, play a crucial role in this process. Yet the evolutionary adaptation and speciation of micro-organisms have rarely been studied in the context of resource cycling. In this study, our basic questions are how does a community evolve its resource usage and how are resource cycles partitioned? RESULTS: We design a computational model in which a population of individuals evolves to take up nutrients and excrete waste. The waste of one individual is another's resource. Given a fixed amount of resources, this leads to resource cycles. We find that the shortest cycle dominates the ecological dynamics, and over evolutionary time its length is minimized. Initially a single lineage processes a long cycle of resources, later crossfeeding lineages arise. The evolutionary dynamics that follow are determined by the strength of indirect selection for resource cycling. We study indirect selection by changing the spatial setting and the strength of direct selection. If individuals are fixed at lattice sites or direct selection is low, indirect selection result in lineages that structure their local environment, leading to 'smart' individuals and stable patterns of resource dynamics. The individuals are good at cycling resources themselves and do this with a short cycle. On the other hand, if individuals randomly change position each time step, or direct selection is high, individuals are more prone to crossfeeding: an ecosystem based solution with turbulent resource dynamics, and individuals that are less capable of cycling resources themselves. CONCLUSION: In a baseline model of ecosystem evolution we demonstrate different eco-evolutionary trajectories of resource cycling. By varying the strength of indirect selection through the spatial setting and direct selection, the integration of information by the evolutionary process leads to qualitatively different results from individual smartness to cooperative community structures.

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The dynamics of nestedness predicts the evolution of industrial ecosystems.

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The dynamics of nestedness predicts the evolution of industrial ecosystems.

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