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High-resolution behavioral economic analysis of cigarette demand to inform tax policy.

ABSTRACT: AIMS:Novel methods in behavioral economics permit the systematic assessment of the relationship between cigarette consumption and price. Towards informing tax policy, the goals of this study were to conduct a high-resolution analysis of cigarette demand in a large sample of adult smokers and to use the data to estimate the effects of tax increases in 10 US States. DESIGN:In-person descriptive survey assessment. SETTING:Academic departments at three universities. PARTICIPANTS:Adult daily smokers (i.e. more than five cigarettes/day; 18+ years old; ?8th grade education); n?=?1056. MEASUREMENTS:Estimated cigarette demand, demographics, expired carbon monoxide. FINDINGS:The cigarette demand curve exhibited highly variable levels of price sensitivity, especially in the form of 'left-digit effects' (i.e. very high price sensitivity as pack prices transitioned from one whole number to the next; e.g. $5.80-6/pack). A $1 tax increase in the 10 states was projected to reduce the economic burden of smoking by an average of $530.6?million (range: $93.6-976.5 million) and increase gross tax revenue by an average of 162% (range: 114-247%). CONCLUSIONS:Tobacco price sensitivity is non-linear across the demand curve and in particular for pack-level left-digit price transitions. Tax increases in US states with similar price and tax rates to the sample are projected to result in substantial decreases in smoking-related costs and substantial increases in tax revenues.

SUBMITTER: MacKillop J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3504189 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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High-resolution behavioral economic analysis of cigarette demand to inform tax policy.

MacKillop James J Few Lauren R LR Murphy James G JG Wier Lauren M LM Acker John J Murphy Cara C Stojek Monika M Carrigan Maureen M Chaloupka Frank F

Addiction (Abingdon, England) 20120730 12

<h4>Aims</h4>Novel methods in behavioral economics permit the systematic assessment of the relationship between cigarette consumption and price. Towards informing tax policy, the goals of this study were to conduct a high-resolution analysis of cigarette demand in a large sample of adult smokers and to use the data to estimate the effects of tax increases in 10 US States.<h4>Design</h4>In-person descriptive survey assessment.<h4>Setting</h4>Academic departments at three universities.<h4>Particip ...[more]

PMID: 22845784

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Project description:BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Government regulations of nicotine vaping products (NVP) have evolved rapidly during the past decade. The impact of NVP regulatory environment and vaping on cigarette demand is unknown. The current study aims to investigate whether or not respondents' reported cigarette demand, as measured by a hypothetical cigarette purchase task, varies with (1) smoking status, (2) vaping status or (3) NVP regulatory environment (country used as proxy). DESIGN:Cross-sectional survey data from wave 1 of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Smoking and Vaping (4CV) Survey (2016). SETTING:Australia, Canada, England and the United States. PARTICIPANTS:A total of 10 316 adult smokers. MEASUREMENTS:A hypothetical purchase task asked smokers to estimate how many cigarettes they would purchase for consumption in a single day across multiple cigarette prices. Responses were used to derive measures of cigarette demand. Overall sensitivity of cigarette consumption to price increases was quantified to index cigarette demand elasticity, whereas estimated consumption when cigarettes are free was used to index cigarette demand intensity. FINDINGS:A majority of the non-daily smokers had previously smoked daily (72.3%); daily vapers were more likely to be former daily smokers (89.9%) compared to non-daily vapers (70.1%) and non-vapers (69.2%) (P < 0.001). The smoking status × vaping status interaction was significant for cigarette demand intensity (F = 4.93; P = 0.007) and elasticity (F = 7.30; P = 0.001): among non-daily smokers, vapers reported greater intensity but lower elasticity (i.e. greater demand) relative to non-vapers (Ps < 0.05). Among daily smokers, daily vapers reported greater intensity relative to non-vapers (P = 0.005), but vaping status did not impact elasticity (Ps > 0.38). Intensity was higher in Australia compared with all other countries (Ps < 0.001), but elasticity did not vary by country (F = 2.15; P = 0.09). CONCLUSIONS:In a hypothetical purchase task, non-daily smokers showed lower price elasticity if they used e-cigarettes than if they did not, while there was no clear difference in elasticity between e-cigarette users and non-users among daily smokers or according to regulatory environment of their country with regard to e-cigarettes.

Project description:Background and aimsReinforcing value, an index of motivation for a drug, is commonly measured using behavioral economic purchase tasks. State-oriented purchase tasks are sensitive to phasic manipulations, but with heterogeneous methods and findings. The aim of this meta-analysis was to characterize the literature examining manipulations of reinforcing value, as measured by purchase tasks and multiple-choice procedures, to inform etiological models and treatment approaches METHODS: A random-effects meta-analysis of published findings in peer-reviewed articles. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) protocol, studies were gathered through searches in PsycINFO and PubMed/MEDLINE (published 22 May 2018). Searches returned 34 unique studies (aggregate sample n = 2402; average sample size = 68.94) yielding 126 effect sizes. Measurements included change (i.e. Cohen's d) in six behavioral economic indices (intensity, breakpoint, Omax , Pmax , elasticity, cross-over point) in relation to six experimental manipulations (cue exposure, stress/negative affect, reinforcer magnitude, pharmacotherapy, behavioral interventions, opportunity cost).ResultsCue exposure (d range = 0.25-0.44, all Ps < 0.05) and reinforcer magnitude [d = 0.60; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.18, 1.01; P < 0.005] manipulations resulted in significant increases in behavioral economic demand across studies. Stress/negative affect manipulations also resulted in a small, significant increase in Omax (d = 0.18; 95% CI = 0.01, 0.34; P = 0.03); all other effect sizes for negative affect/stress were non-significant, albeit similar in size (d range = 0.14-0.18). In contrast, pharmacotherapy (d range = -0.37 to -0.49; Ps < 0.04), behavioral intervention (d = -0.36 to -1.13) and external contingency (d = -1.42; CI = -2.30, -0.54; P = 0.002) manipulations resulted in a significant decrease in intensity. Moderators (substance type) explained some of the heterogeneity in findings across meta-analyses.ConclusionsIn behavioral economic studies, purchase tasks and multiple-choice procedures appear to provide indices that are sensitive to manipulations found to influence motivation to consume addictive substances in field experiments.

Project description:IntroductionBehavioral economic theory views addiction as a reinforcer pathology characterized by excessive demand for drugs relative to alternatives. Complementary to this theory, Lamb and Ginsburg (Pharmacology Biochemistry and Behavior, 164, 2018, 62) describe addiction as a behavioral allocation disorder and predict that decisions to drink under increasingly stringent constraints are a central indicator of addiction. This study used a modified demand-curve paradigm to examine alcohol demand in the context of a next-day contingency (high opportunity cost demand) as a specific indicator of a severe pattern of alcohol problems.MethodsParticipants were 370 undergraduates (61.1% female, 86.5% white, Mage = 18.8) reporting multiple past-month heavy drinking episodes (5/4 drinks per occasion for men/women) who completed 2 versions of an alcohol purchase task (APT), along with measures of past-month alcohol use and problems. In 1 APT (low opportunity cost), students imagined they had no next-day responsibilities, and in the other APT (high opportunity cost), they imagined having a 10:00 am test the next day. Item-response theory analyses were used to determine mild and severe alcohol problems from the Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire (Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 67, 2006, 169), and the most and least severe binge drinking days throughout the week.ResultsLow opportunity cost demand (β = 0.15, p = 0.02) significantly predicted beyond high opportunity cost demand for the least severe problems, and high opportunity cost demand (β = 0.17, p = 0.009) significantly predicted beyond low opportunity cost demand for the most severe problems. Similarly, low opportunity cost demand (β = 0.26, p < 0.001) was more highly associated with weekend drinking, whereas high opportunity cost demand (β = 0.21, p = 0.001) was more highly associated with weekday drinking.ConclusionsThe current results suggest high opportunity cost alcohol demand is a distinct marker of severe alcohol problems among college student heavy drinkers.

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High-resolution behavioral economic analysis of cigarette demand to inform tax policy.

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High-resolution behavioral economic analysis of cigarette demand to inform tax policy.

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