Dataset Information

Projections of type 1 and type 2 diabetes burden in the U.S. population aged <20 years through 2050: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and population growth.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To forecast the number of U.S. individuals aged <20 years with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes incidence.

Research design and methods

We used Markov modeling framework to generate yearly forecasts of the number of individuals in each of three states (diabetes, no diabetes, and death). We used 2001 prevalence and 2002 incidence of T1DM and T2DM from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study and U.S. Census Bureau population demographic projections. Two scenarios were considered for T1DM and T2DM incidence: 1) constant incidence over time; 2) for T1DM yearly percentage increases of 3.5, 2.2, 1.8, and 2.1% by age-groups 0-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years, and 15-19 years, respectively, and for T2DM a yearly 2.3% increase across all ages.

Results

Under scenario 1, the projected number of youth with T1DM rises from 166,018 to 203,382 and with T2DM from 20,203 to 30,111, respectively, in 2010 and 2050. Under scenario 2, the number of youth with T1DM nearly triples from 179,388 in 2010 to 587,488 in 2050 (prevalence 2.13/1,000 and 5.20/1,000 [+144% increase]), with the greatest increase in youth of minority racial/ethnic groups. The number of youth with T2DM almost quadruples from 22,820 in 2010 to 84,131 in 2050; prevalence increases from 0.27/1,000 to 0.75/1,000 (+178% increase).

Conclusions

A linear increase in diabetes incidence could result in a substantial increase in the number of youth with T1DM and T2DM over the next 40 years, especially those of minority race/ethnicity.

SUBMITTER: Imperatore G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3507562 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Projections of type 1 and type 2 diabetes burden in the U.S. population aged <20 years through 2050: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and population growth.

Imperatore Giuseppina G Boyle James P JP Thompson Theodore J TJ Case Doug D Dabelea Dana D Hamman Richard F RF Lawrence Jean M JM Liese Angela D AD Liu Lenna L LL Mayer-Davis Elizabeth J EJ Rodriguez Beatriz L BL Standiford Debra D

Diabetes care 20121201 12

<h4>Objective</h4>To forecast the number of U.S. individuals aged <20 years with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes incidence.<h4>Research design and methods</h4>We used Markov modeling framework to generate yearly forecasts of the number of individuals in each of three states (diabetes, no diabetes, and death). We used 2001 prevalence and 2002 incidence of T1DM and T2DM from the SEARCH for Diabetes in ...[more]

PMID: 23173134

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Dataset Information

Projections of type 1 and type 2 diabetes burden in the U.S. population aged <20 years through 2050: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and population growth.

Objective

Research design and methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Projections of type 1 and type 2 diabetes burden in the U.S. population aged <20 years through 2050: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and population growth.

Similar Datasets

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