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Estimating propensity scores and causal survival functions using prevalent survival data.

ABSTRACT: This article develops semiparametric approaches for estimation of propensity scores and causal survival functions from prevalent survival data. The analytical problem arises when the prevalent sampling is adopted for collecting failure times and, as a result, the covariates are incompletely observed due to their association with failure time. The proposed procedure for estimating propensity scores shares interesting features similar to the likelihood formulation in case-control study, but in our case it requires additional consideration in the intercept term. The result shows that the corrected propensity scores in logistic regression setting can be obtained through standard estimation procedure with specific adjustments on the intercept term. For causal estimation, two different types of missing sources are encountered in our model: one can be explained by potential outcome framework; the other is caused by the prevalent sampling scheme. Statistical analysis without adjusting bias from both sources of missingness will lead to biased results in causal inference. The proposed methods were partly motivated by and applied to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked data for women diagnosed with breast cancer.

SUBMITTER: Cheng YJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3508756 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating propensity scores and causal survival functions using prevalent survival data.

Cheng Yu-Jen YJ Wang Mei-Cheng MC

Biometrics 20120726 3

This article develops semiparametric approaches for estimation of propensity scores and causal survival functions from prevalent survival data. The analytical problem arises when the prevalent sampling is adopted for collecting failure times and, as a result, the covariates are incompletely observed due to their association with failure time. The proposed procedure for estimating propensity scores shares interesting features similar to the likelihood formulation in case-control study, but in our ...[more]

PMID: 22834993

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Project description:BackgroundFor women undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF), the clinical benefit of embryo transfer at the blastocyst stage (Day 5) versus cleavage stage (Day 3) remains controversial. The purpose of this study is to compare the implantation rate, clinical pregnancy rate and odds of live birth of Day 3 and Day 5 embryo transfer, and more importantly, to address the issue that patients were chosen to receive either transfer protocol due to their underlying clinical characteristics, i.e., confounding by indication.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of 9,090 IVF cycles collected by Lee Women's Hospital in Taichung, Taiwan from 1998 to 2014. We utilized the method of propensity score matching to mimic a randomized controlled trial (RCT) where each patient with Day 5 transfer was matched by another patient with Day 3 transfer with respect to other clinical characteristics. Implantation rate, clinical pregnancy rate, and odds of live birth were compared for women underwent Day 5 transfer and Day 3 transfer to estimate the causal effects. We further investigated the causal effects in subgroups by stratifying age and anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH).ResultsOur analyses uncovered an evidence of a significant difference in implantation rate (p=0.04) favoring Day 5 transfer, and showed that Day 3 and Day 5 transfers made no difference in both odds of live birth (p=0.27) and clinical pregnancy rate (p=0.11). With the increase of gestational age, the trend toward non-significance of embryo transfer day in our result appeared to be consistent for subgroups stratified by age and AMH, while all analyses stratified by age and AMH were not statistically significant.ConclusionsWe conclude that for women without strong indications for Day 3 or Day 5 transfer, there is a small significant difference in implantation rate in favor of Day 5 transfer. However, the two protocols have indistinguishable outcomes on odds of live birth and clinical pregnancy rate.

Project description:Existing methods for predicting protein crystallization obtain high accuracy using various types of complemented features and complex ensemble classifiers, such as support vector machine (SVM) and Random Forest classifiers. It is desirable to develop a simple and easily interpretable prediction method with informative sequence features to provide insights into protein crystallization. This study proposes an ensemble method, SCMCRYS, to predict protein crystallization, for which each classifier is built by using a scoring card method (SCM) with estimating propensity scores of p-collocated amino acid (AA) pairs (p=0 for a dipeptide). The SCM classifier determines the crystallization of a sequence according to a weighted-sum score. The weights are the composition of the p-collocated AA pairs, and the propensity scores of these AA pairs are estimated using a statistic with optimization approach. SCMCRYS predicts the crystallization using a simple voting method from a number of SCM classifiers. The experimental results show that the single SCM classifier utilizing dipeptide composition with accuracy of 73.90% is comparable to the best previously-developed SVM-based classifier, SVM_POLY (74.6%), and our proposed SVM-based classifier utilizing the same dipeptide composition (77.55%). The SCMCRYS method with accuracy of 76.1% is comparable to the state-of-the-art ensemble methods PPCpred (76.8%) and RFCRYS (80.0%), which used the SVM and Random Forest classifiers, respectively. This study also investigates mutagenesis analysis based on SCM and the result reveals the hypothesis that the mutagenesis of surface residues Ala and Cys has large and small probabilities of enhancing protein crystallizability considering the estimated scores of crystallizability and solubility, melting point, molecular weight and conformational entropy of amino acids in a generalized condition. The propensity scores of amino acids and dipeptides for estimating the protein crystallizability can aid biologists in designing mutation of surface residues to enhance protein crystallizability. The source code of SCMCRYS is available at http://iclab.life.nctu.edu.tw/SCMCRYS/.

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Estimating propensity scores and causal survival functions using prevalent survival data.

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Estimating propensity scores and causal survival functions using prevalent survival data.

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