Dataset Information

Estimation of outbreak severity and transmissibility: Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in households.

ABSTRACT:

Background

When an outbreak of a novel pathogen occurs, some of the most pressing questions from a public-health point of view relate to its transmissibility, and the probabilities of different clinical outcomes following infection, to allow an informed response. Estimates of these quantities are often based on household data due to the high potential for transmission in this setting, but typically a rich spectrum of individual-level outcomes (from uninfected to serious illness) are simplified to binary data (infected or not). We address the added benefit from retaining the heterogeneous outcome information in the case of the 2009-10 influenza pandemic, which posed particular problems for estimation of key epidemiological characteristics due to its relatively mild nature and hence low case ascertainment rates.

Methods

We use mathematical models of within-household transmission and case ascertainment, together with Bayesian statistics to estimate transmission probabilities stratified by household size, the variability of infectiousness of cases, and a set of probabilities describing case ascertainment. This novel approach was applied to data we collected from the early "containment phase" stage of the epidemic in Birmingham, England. We also conducted a comprehensive review of studies of household transmission of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09.

Results

We find large variability in the published estimates of within-household transmissibility of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in both model-based studies and those reporting secondary attack rates, finding that these estimates are very sensitive to how an infected case is defined. In particular, we find that reliance on laboratory confirmation alone underestimates the true number of cases, while utilising the heterogeneous range of outcomes (based on case definitions) for household infections allows a far more comprehensive pattern of transmission to be elucidated.

Conclusions

Differences in household sizes and how cases are defined could account for an appreciable proportion of the reported variability of within-household transmissibility of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Retaining and statistically analysing the full spectrum of individual-level outcomes (based on case definitions) rather than taking a potentially arbitrary threshold for infection, provides much-needed additional information. In a future pandemic, our approach could be used as a real-time analysis tool to infer the true number of cases, within-household transmission rates and levels of case ascertainment.

SUBMITTER: House T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3520767 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Estimation of outbreak severity and transmissibility: Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in households.

House Thomas T Inglis Nadia N Ross Joshua V JV Wilson Fay F Suleman Shakeel S Edeghere Obaghe O Smith Gillian G Olowokure Babatunde B Keeling Matt J MJ

BMC medicine 20121009

<h4>Background</h4>When an outbreak of a novel pathogen occurs, some of the most pressing questions from a public-health point of view relate to its transmissibility, and the probabilities of different clinical outcomes following infection, to allow an informed response. Estimates of these quantities are often based on household data due to the high potential for transmission in this setting, but typically a rich spectrum of individual-level outcomes (from uninfected to serious illness) are simp ...[more]

PMID: 23046520

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundInfluenza is an acute viral respiratory tract infection caused by influenza virus and transmitted from person to person. Though usually seasonal in temperate climates, influenza occurs throughout the year in the tropics with outbreaks occurring at irregular intervals. On February 6, 2018, a number of students from a Senior High School (SHS) in Accra reported to a district hospital with cough, fever and other respiratory symptoms. An influenza-like illness (ILI) outbreak was suspected. We investigated to determine the magnitude and source of the outbreak and implement control and preventive measures.MethodsWe interviewed health workers, staff and students of the school as well as case-patients and reviewed health records to collect data on demographic characteristics, signs and symptoms, date of illness onset and outcome. We defined ILI case as "any person in the SHS with fever (measured axillary temperature of ≥ 37.5 °C or history of fever) and cough with or without sore throat or runny nose from January 21 to February 26, 2018". We conducted active case search to identify more cases and took oropharyngeal samples for laboratory testing. We performed descriptive and inferential analysis by calculating attack rate ratios (ARR) and their exact 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsOf the 3160 students, 104 case-patients were recorded from January 25, 2018 to February 13, 2018 (overall attack rate of 3.3%). Mean age of case-patients was 16.1 (±2.3) years with males constituting 71.2% (74/104). Sex specific attack rates were 5.6% (74/1331) and 1.6% (30/1829) for males and females respectively. Compared to females, males were 3.4 times as likely to be ill [ARR =3.4, 95%CI = (2.23-5.15)]. Nine oropharyngeal samples from 17 suspected case-patients tested positive for influenza A (H1N1)pdm09.ConclusionOutbreak of influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 occurred in a SHS in Accra from January to February, 2018. Even though source of the outbreak could not be determined, prompt case management and health education on hand and personal hygiene as non-pharmacological factors probably contributed to the outbreak control. The outbreak ended with a scheduled mid-term break. This underscores the need for more evidence on the effect of school closure in influenza outbreak control.

Project description:ObjectivesTo review neurological complications after the influenza A (H1N1) pdm09, highlighting the clinical differences between patients with post-vaccine or viral infection.DesignA search on Medline, Ovid, EMBASE, and PubMed databases using the keywords “neurological complications of Influenza AH1N1” or “post-vaccine Influenza AH1N1.”SettingOnly papers written in English, Spanish, German, French, Portuguese, and Italian published from March 2009 to December 2012 were included.SampleWe included 104 articles presenting a total of 1636 patient cases. In addition, two cases of influenza vaccine-related neurological events from our neurological care center, arising during the period of study, were also included.Main outcome measuresDemographic data and clinical diagnosis of neurological complications and outcomes: death, neurological sequelae or recovery after influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 vaccine or infection.ResultsThe retrieved cases were divided into two groups: the postvaccination group, with 287 patients, and the viral infection group, with 1349 patients. Most patients in the first group were adults. The main neurological complications were Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) or polyneuropathy (125), and seizures (23). All patients survived. Pediatric patients were predominant in the viral infection group. In this group, 60 patients (4.7%) died and 52 (30.1%) developed permanent sequelae. A wide spectrum of neurological complications was observed.ConclusionsFatal cases and severe, permanent, neurological sequelae were observed in the infection group only. Clinical outcome was more favorable in the post-vaccination group. In this context, the relevance of an accurate neurological evaluation is demonstrated for all suspicious cases, as well as the need of an appropriate long-term clinical and imaging follow-up of infection and post-vaccination events related to influenza A (H1N1) pdm09, to clearly estimate the magnitude of neurological complications leading to permanent disability.

Dataset Information

Estimation of outbreak severity and transmissibility: Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in households.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Estimation of outbreak severity and transmissibility: Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in households.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets