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Hitting is contagious in baseball: evidence from long hitting streaks.

ABSTRACT: Data analysis is used to test the hypothesis that "hitting is contagious". A statistical model is described to study the effect of a hot hitter upon his teammates' batting during a consecutive game hitting streak. Box score data for entire seasons comprising [Formula: see text] streaks of length [Formula: see text] games, including a total [Formula: see text] observations were compiled. Treatment and control sample groups ([Formula: see text]) were constructed from core lineups of players on the streaking batter's team. The percentile method bootstrap was used to calculate [Formula: see text] confidence intervals for statistics representing differences in the mean distributions of two batting statistics between groups. Batters in the treatment group (hot streak active) showed statistically significant improvements in hitting performance, as compared against the control. Mean [Formula: see text] for the treatment group was found to be [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] percentage points higher during hot streaks (mean difference increased [Formula: see text] points), while the batting heat index [Formula: see text] introduced here was observed to increase by [Formula: see text] points. For each performance statistic, the null hypothesis was rejected at the [Formula: see text] significance level. We conclude that the evidence suggests the potential existence of a "statistical contagion effect". Psychological mechanisms essential to the empirical results are suggested, as several studies from the scientific literature lend credence to contagious phenomena in sports. Causal inference from these results is difficult, but we suggest and discuss several latent variables that may contribute to the observed results, and offer possible directions for future research.

SUBMITTER: Bock JR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3520861 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Hitting is contagious in baseball: evidence from long hitting streaks.

Bock Joel R JR Maewal Akhilesh A Gough David A DA

PloS one 20121212 12

Data analysis is used to test the hypothesis that "hitting is contagious". A statistical model is described to study the effect of a hot hitter upon his teammates' batting during a consecutive game hitting streak. Box score data for entire seasons comprising [Formula: see text] streaks of length [Formula: see text] games, including a total [Formula: see text] observations were compiled. Treatment and control sample groups ([Formula: see text]) were constructed from core lineups of players on the ...[more]

PMID: 23251507

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Project description:BackgroundWhile the incidence of ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction (UCLR) has increased across all levels of play, few studies have investigated the long-term outcomes in nonprofessional athletes.PurposeTo determine the rate of progression to higher levels of play, long-term patient-reported outcomes (PROs), and long-term patient satisfaction in nonprofessional baseball players after UCLR.Study designCase series; Level of evidence, 4.MethodsWe evaluated UCLR patients who were nonprofessional baseball athletes aged <25 years at a minimum of 5 years postoperatively. Patients were assessed with the Kerlan-Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic Shoulder and Elbow Score (KJOC), the Timmerman-Andrews (T-A) Elbow score, the Mayo Elbow Performance Score (MEPS), and a custom return-to-play questionnaire.ResultsA total of 91 baseball players met the inclusion criteria, and 67 (74%) patients were available to complete the follow-up surveys at a mean follow-up of 8.9 years (range, 5.5-13.9 years). At the time of the surgery, the mean age was 18.9 ± 1.9 years (range, 15-24 years). Return to play at any level was achieved in 57 (85%) players at a mean time of 12.6 months. Twenty-two (32.8%) of the initial cohort returned to play at the professional level. Also, 43 (79.1%) patients who initially returned to play after surgery reported not playing baseball at the final follow-up; of those patients, 12 reported their elbow as the main reason for eventual retirement. The overall KJOC, MEPS, and T-A scores were 82.8 ± 18.5 (range, 36-100), 96.7 ± 6.7 (range, 75-100), and 91.9 ± 11.4 (range, 50-100), respectively . There was an overall satisfaction score of 90.6 ± 21.5 out of 100, and 64 (95.5%) patients reported that they would undergo UCLR again.ConclusionIn nonprofessional baseball players after UCLR, there was a high rate of progression to higher levels of play. Long-term PRO scores and patient satisfaction were high. The large majority of patients who underwent UCLR would undergo surgery again at long-term follow-up, regardless of career advancement.

Dataset Information

Hitting is contagious in baseball: evidence from long hitting streaks.

Publications

Hitting is contagious in baseball: evidence from long hitting streaks.

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