Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of influenza epidemics and pandemics.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Reed C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3557974 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The novel coronavirus is part of a series of infectious disease outbreaks that include: Ebola, Avian influenza, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, and Influenza A. This paper addresses the question of how do these epidemics and pandemics affect income inequality in countries around the world during the first two decades of this century. To achieve its objective, the paper develops a model that indicates a positive association between these health crises and income inequality. To empirically test our theoretical predictions, the paper explores the effect on the Gini coefficient of a dummy variable that indicates the occurrence of an epidemic or a pandemic in a country in a given year and the number of deaths per 100,000. To properly address potential endogeneity, we implement a Three-Stage-Least Squares technique. The estimation shows that the number of deaths per 100,000 population variable has a statistically significant positive effect on the Gini coefficient, especially when we incorporate COVID-19 data. This suggests that not only the occurrence, but also the health consequences of COVID-19 have a significant and economically important effect on income inequality.BackgroundThe purpose of the study is to examine the effect of epidemics and pandemics on income inequality. This has important implications as the outcome of this study can guide policymakers into implementing policies that can mitigate the economic consequences of these health crises.MethodsThe study is a cross country analysis using fixed effects estimation. To address potential endogeneity and determine causality, the paper uses the Three-Stage-Least-Squares estimation.ResultsThe paper finds that the number of epidemic deaths per 100,000 population variable has a statistically significant positive effect on the Gini coefficient, especially when we incorporate COVID-19 data.ConclusionsThe paper finds that it is not only the occurrence of an epidemic, captured by the epidemics dummy variable, but also the health consequences, captured by the number of deaths per 100,000 population, that have a significant effect on income inequality. This is especially the case when we incorporate COVID-19 in our analysis.Trial registrationNot Applicable.
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Project description:School closure policies are among the non-pharmaceutical measures taken into consideration to mitigate influenza epidemics and pandemics spread. However, a systematic review of the effectiveness of alternative closure policies has yet to emerge. Here we perform a model-based analysis of four types of school closure, ranging from the nationwide closure of all schools at the same time to reactive gradual closure, starting from class-by-class, then grades and finally the whole school. We consider policies based on triggers that are feasible to monitor, such as school absenteeism and national ILI surveillance system. We found that, under specific constraints on the average number of weeks lost per student, reactive school-by-school, gradual, and county-wide closure give comparable outcomes in terms of optimal infection attack rate reduction, peak incidence reduction or peak delay. Optimal implementations generally require short closures of one week each; this duration is long enough to break the transmission chain without leading to unnecessarily long periods of class interruption. Moreover, we found that gradual and county closures may be slightly more easily applicable in practice as they are less sensitive to the value of the excess absenteeism threshold triggering the start of the intervention. These findings suggest that policy makers could consider school closure policies more diffusely as response strategy to influenza epidemics and pandemics, and the fact that some countries already have some experience of gradual or regional closures for seasonal influenza outbreaks demonstrates that logistic and feasibility challenges of school closure strategies can be to some extent overcome.
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Project description:Understanding the risk perceptions of the public is central for risk communications and infodemic management during emergency and preparedness planning as people's behavior depends on how they perceive the related risks. This qualitative study aimed to identify and describe factors related to COVID-19 risk perceptions of the public in Finland and to make this information readily available to those who communicate with the public during crises. The study is part of a larger project exploring crisis narratives through a mixed-methods approach. The study was based on a dataset of over 10,000 comments on the Facebook and Twitter posts of the Finnish Institute of Health and Welfare (THL) between March-May 2021. The data were analyzed qualitatively using thematic analysis. The study identified concepts linked with the pandemic risk perception that included knowledge, perceptions, personal experiences, trust, attitudes, and cultural values. The findings resulted in a framework of risk perceptions that can be used as taxonomy and a set of key concepts and keywords in social listening to monitor risk perception during future epidemics and pandemics.
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Project description:Understanding real-life issues such as influenza epidemiology may be of particular interest to the development of scientific knowledge and initiation of conceptual changes about viruses and their life cycles for high school students. The goal of this research project was to foster the development of adolescents' conceptual understanding of viruses and influenza biology. Thus, the project included two components: 1) pre- and posttests to determine students' conceptions about influenza biology, epidemics/pandemics, and vaccination; and 2) design an intervention that supports conceptual change to promote improvements in influenza knowledge based on these primary conceptions. Thirty-five female students from a high school biology class participated in a series of instructional activities and pre- and posttest assessments. Results from the pretest indicated that high school students exhibit a limited understanding of concepts related to viruses. Six weeks after an intervention that promoted active learning, results from a posttest showed that conceptions about influenza are more accurately related to the provided scientific knowledge. Although adolescents have nonscientific models to explain influenza biology, we showed that a carefully designed intervention can affect students' knowledge as well as influence the implementation of health education programs in secondary schools.
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Project description:BackgroundRapid data sharing can maximize the utility of data. In epidemics and pandemics like Zika, Ebola, and COVID-19, the case for such practices seems especially urgent and warranted. Yet rapidly sharing data widely has previously generated significant concerns related to equity. The continued lack of understanding and guidance on equitable data sharing raises the following questions: Should data sharing in epidemics and pandemics primarily advance utility, or should it advance equity as well? If so, what norms comprise equitable data sharing in epidemics and pandemics? Do these norms address the equity-related concerns raised by researchers, data providers, and other stakeholders? What tensions must be balanced between equity and other values?MethodsTo explore these questions, we undertook a systematic scoping review of the literature on data sharing in epidemics and pandemics and thematically analyzed identified literature for its discussion of ethical values, norms, concerns, and tensions, with a particular (but not exclusive) emphasis on equity. We wanted to both understand how equity in data sharing is being conceptualized and draw out other important values and norms for data sharing in epidemics and pandemics.ResultsWe found that values of utility, equity, solidarity, and reciprocity were described, and we report their associated norms, including researcher recognition; rapid, real-time sharing; capacity development; and fair benefits to data generators, data providers, and source countries. The value of utility and its associated norms were discussed substantially more than others. Tensions between utility norms (e.g., rapid, real-time sharing) and equity norms (e.g., researcher recognition, equitable access) were raised.ConclusionsThis study found support for equity being advanced by data sharing in epidemics and pandemics. However, norms for equitable data sharing in epidemics and pandemics require further development, particularly in relation to power sharing and participatory approaches prioritizing inclusion. Addressing structural inequities in the wider global health landscape is also needed to achieve equitable data sharing in epidemics and pandemics.
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