Dataset Information

Rates of hemorrhage during warfarin therapy for atrial fibrillation.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Although warfarin has been extensively studied in clinical trials, little is known about rates of hemorrhage attributable to its use in routine clinical practice. Our objective was to examine incident hemorrhagic events in a large population-based cohort of patients with atrial fibrillation who were starting treatment with warfarin.

Methods

We conducted a population-based cohort study involving residents of Ontario (age ≥ 66 yr) with atrial fibrillation who started taking warfarin between Apr. 1, 1997, and Mar. 31, 2008. We defined a major hemorrhage as any visit to hospital for hemorrage. We determined crude rates of hemorrhage during warfarin treatment, overall and stratified by CHADS(2) score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 yr, diabetes mellitus and prior stroke, transient ischemic attack or thromboembolism).

Results

We included 125 195 patients with atrial fibrillation who started treatment with warfarin during the study period. Overall, the rate of hemorrhage was 3.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.8%-3.9%) per person-year. The risk of major hemorrhage was highest during the first 30 days of treatment. During this period, rates of hemorrhage were 11.8% (95% CI 11.1%-12.5%) per person-year in all patients and 16.7% (95% CI 14.3%-19.4%) per person-year among patients with a CHADS(2) scores of 4 or greater. Over the 5-year follow-up, 10 840 patients (8.7%) visited the hospital for hemorrhage; of these patients, 1963 (18.1%) died in hospital or within 7 days of being discharged.

Interpretation

In this large cohort of older patients with atrial fibrillation, we found that rates of hemorrhage are highest within the first 30 days of warfarin therapy. These rates are considerably higher than the rates of 1%-3% reported in randomized controlled trials of warfarin therapy. Our study provides timely estimates of warfarin-related adverse events that may be useful to clinicians, patients and policy-makers as new options for treatment become available.

SUBMITTER: Gomes T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3563912 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceThe increase in the risk for bleeding associated with antithrombotic therapy causes a dilemma in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who sustain an intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). A thrombotic risk is present; however, a risk for serious harm associated with resumption of anticoagulation therapy also exists.ObjectiveTo investigate the prognosis associated with resuming warfarin treatment stratified by the type of ICH (hemorrhagic stroke or traumatic ICH).Design, setting, and participantsThis nationwide observational cohort study included patients with AF who sustained an incident ICH event during warfarin treatment from January 1, 1998, through February 28, 2016. Follow-up was completed April 30, 2016. Resumption of warfarin treatment was evaluated after hospital discharge.ExposuresNo oral anticoagulant treatment or resumption of warfarin treatment, included as a time-dependent exposure.Main outcomes and measuresOne-year observed event rates per 100 person-years were calculated, and treatment strategies were compared using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression models with adjustment for age, sex, length of hospital stay, comorbidities, and concomitant medication use.ResultsA total of 2415 patients with AF in this cohort (1481 men [61.3%] and 934 women [38.7%]; mean [SD] age, 77.1 years [9.1 years]) sustained an ICH event. Of these events, 1325 were attributable to hemorrhagic stroke and 1090 were secondary to trauma. During the first year, 305 patients with a hemorrhagic stroke (23.0%) died, whereas 210 in the traumatic ICH group (19.3%) died. Among patients with hemorrhagic stroke, resuming warfarin therapy was associated with a lower rate of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism (SE) (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.49; 95% CI, 0.24-1.02) and an increased rate of recurrent ICH (AHR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.68-2.50) compared with not resuming warfarin therapy, but these differences did not reach statistical significance. For patients with traumatic ICH, resuming warfarin therapy also was associated with a lower rate of ischemic stroke or SE (AHR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.15-1.11); however, in contrast to patients with hemorrhagic stroke, therapy resumption was associated with a significantly lower rate of recurrent ICH (AHR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.26-0.76). A reduction in mortality was associated with resuming warfarin therapy among patients with hemorrhagic stroke (AHR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.37-0.71) and those with traumatic ICH (AHR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.23-0.52).Conclusions and relevanceResumption of warfarin therapy after spontaneous hemorrhagic stroke in patients with AF was associated with a lower rate of ischemic events and a higher rate of recurrent ICH. Among patients with a traumatic ICH, a similar lower rate of ischemic events was found; however, a lower relative risk for recurrent ICH despite resuming warfarin treatment was also revealed.

Project description:Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases risk of stroke, and although this stroke risk can be ameliorated by warfarin therapy, some patients decline to adhere to warfarin therapy. A prospective clinical study could be conducted to determine whether knowledge of genetic risk for AF could increase adherence to warfarin therapy for patients who initially declined therapy. As a prelude to a potential prospective clinical study, we investigated whether the use of genetic information to increase adherence could be cost effective.Markov model assessed costs and utilities of two care strategies for AF patients who declined warfarin therapy. In the usual care strategy patients received aspirin. In the test strategy genetic risk for AF was assessed (genotype of the 4q25 locus) and some patients with a positive genetic test (?1 risk allele) were assumed to adhere to warfarin therapy. The remaining patients received aspirin. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was the ratio of the costs differential and the quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) differential for the two strategies.We found that the 4q25 genetic testing strategy, compared with the usual care strategy (aspirin therapy), would be cost-effective (ICER $ 47,148) if 2.1 % or more of the test positive patients were to adhere to warfarin therapy. The test strategy would become a cost saving strategy if 5.3 % or more of the test positive patients were to adhere to warfarin therapy. If 20 % of test positive patients were to adhere to warfarin therapy in a hypothetical cohort of 1000 patients, 7 stroke events would be prevented and 3 extra-cranial major bleeding events would be caused over 5 years, resulting in a cost savings of?~?$250,000 and a net gain of 9 QALYs.A clinical study to assess the impact of patient knowledge of genetic risk of AF on adherence to warfarin therapy would be merited because even a modest increase in patient adherence would make a genetic testing strategy cost-effective.Providing patients who declined warfarin therapy with information about their genetic risk of AF would be cost effective if this genetic risk information resulted in modest increases in adherence.

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