Dataset Information

Lagged effect of diurnal temperature range on mortality in a subtropical megacity of China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Many studies have found extreme temperature can increase the risk of mortality. However, it is not clear whether extreme diurnal temperature range (DTR) is associated with daily disease-specific mortality, and how season might modify any association.

Objectives

To better understand the acute effect of DTR on mortality and identify whether season is a modifier of the DTR effect.

Methods

The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of DTR on deaths (non-accidental mortality (NAD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease (RD) and cerebrovascular disease (CBD)) in the full year, the cold season and the warm season.

Results

A non-linear relationship was consistently found between extreme DTR and mortality. Immediate effects of extreme low DTR on all types of mortality were stronger than those of extreme high DTR in the full year. The cumulative effects of extreme DTRs increased with the increment of lag days for all types of mortality in cold season, and they were greater for extreme high DTRs than those of extreme low DTRs. In hot season, the cumulative effects for extreme low DTRs increased with the increment of lag days, but for extreme high DTR they reached maxima at a lag of 13 days for all types of mortality except for CBD(at lag6 days), and then decreased.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that extreme DTR is an independent risk factor of daily mortality, and season is a modifier of the association of DTR with daily mortality.

SUBMITTER: Luo Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3566202 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Lagged effect of diurnal temperature range on mortality in a subtropical megacity of China.

Luo Yuan Y Zhang Yonghui Y Liu Tao T Rutherford Shannon S Xu Yanjun Y Xu Xiaojun X Wu Wei W Xiao Jianpeng J Zeng Weilin W Chu Cordia C Ma Wenjun W

PloS one 20130206 2

<h4>Background</h4>Many studies have found extreme temperature can increase the risk of mortality. However, it is not clear whether extreme diurnal temperature range (DTR) is associated with daily disease-specific mortality, and how season might modify any association.<h4>Objectives</h4>To better understand the acute effect of DTR on mortality and identify whether season is a modifier of the DTR effect.<h4>Methods</h4>The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to assess the non-linea ...[more]

PMID: 23405130

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Project description:BackgroundVarious retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions.MethodsDTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985-2015) and future (2020-99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk.FindingsThe time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by -0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2-7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to increase in all countries or regions by 1·4-10·3% in 2090-99.InterpretationThis study suggests that globally, DTR-related excess mortality might increase under climate change, and this increasing pattern is likely to vary between countries and regions. Considering climatic changes, our findings could contribute to public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of DTR on human health.FundingKorea Ministry of Environment.

Project description:BackgroundThe association between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and hospitalization for exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) was rarely reported.ObjectivesTo examine the association between DTR and daily hospital admissions for exacerbation of CRD and find out the potential effect of modifications on this association.MethodData on daily hospitalization for exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma and bronchiectasis and meteorology measures from 2013 through 2017 were obtained from 21 cities in South China. After controlling the effects of daily mean temperature, relative humidity (RH), particulate matter < 2.5 μm diameter (PM2.5) and other confounding factors, a standard generalized additive model (GAM) with a quasi-Poisson distribution was performed to evaluate the relationships between DTR and daily hospital admissions of CRD in a two-stage strategy. Subgroup analysis was performed to find potential modifications, including seasonality and population characteristics.ResultElevated risk of hospitalization for exacerbation of CRD (RR = 1.09 [95%CI: 1.08 to 1.11]) was associated with the increase in DTR (the 75th percentile versus the 25th percentile of DTR at lag0-6). The effects of DTR on hospital admissions for CRD were strong at low DTR in the hot season and high DTR in the cold season. The RR (the 75th percentile versus the 25th percentile of DTR at lag0-6) of hospitalization was 1.11 (95%CI: 1.08 to 1.12) for exacerbations of COPD and 1.09 (95%CI: 1.05 to 1.13) for asthma. The adverse effect of DTR on hospitalization for bronchiectasis was only observed in female patients (RR = 1.06 [95%CI: 1.03 to 1.10]).ConclusionOur study provided additional evidence for the association between DTR and daily hospitalization for exacerbation of CRD, and these associations are especially stronger in COPD patients and in the cold season than the hot season. Preventive measures to reduce the adverse impacts of DTR were needed for CRD patients.

Dataset Information

Lagged effect of diurnal temperature range on mortality in a subtropical megacity of China.

Background

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Lagged effect of diurnal temperature range on mortality in a subtropical megacity of China.

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