Accuracy of the "traffic light" clinical decision rule for serious bacterial infections in young children with fever: a retrospective cohort study.
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ABSTRACT: Objectives
To determine the accuracy of a clinical decision rule (the traffic light system developed by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE)) for detecting three common serious bacterial infections (urinary tract infection, pneumonia, and bacteraemia) in young febrile children.Design
Retrospective analysis of data from a two year prospective cohort studySetting
A paediatric emergency department.Participants
15,781 cases of children under 5 years of age presenting with a febrile illness.Main outcome measures
Clinical features were used to categorise each febrile episodes as low, intermediate, or high probability of serious bacterial infection (green, amber, and red zones of the traffic light system); these results were checked (using standard radiological and microbiological tests) for each of the infections of interest and for any serious bacterial infection.Results
After combination of the intermediate and high risk categories, the NICE traffic light system had a test sensitivity of 85.8% (95% confidence interval 83.6% to 87.7%) and specificity of 28.5% (27.8% to 29.3%) for the detection of any serious bacterial infection. Of the 1140 cases of serious bacterial infection, 157 (13.8%) were test negative (in the green zone), and, of these, 108 (68.8%) were urinary tract infections. Adding urine analysis (leucocyte esterase or nitrite positive), reported in 3653 (23.1%) episodes, to the traffic light system improved the test performance: sensitivity 92.1% (89.3% to 94.1%), specificity 22.3% (20.9% to 23.8%), and relative positive likelihood ratio 1.10 (1.06 to 1.14).Conclusion
The NICE traffic light system failed to identify a substantial proportion of serious bacterial infections, particularly urinary tract infections. The addition of urine analysis significantly improved test sensitivity, making the traffic light system a more useful triage tool for the detection of serious bacterial infections in young febrile children.
SUBMITTER: De S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3571679 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Background and objectivesTo determine the rate of serious-bacterial-infections (SBI) in young ex-premature infants with fever, and to develop a risk-stratification algorithm for these patients.MethodsA retrospective cohort study including all infants who presented to the pediatric emergency department (ED) of a tertiary-care university-hospital between 2010 and 2020 with fever (≥38°C), were born prematurely (<37-weeks), had post-conception age of <52-weeks, and had available blood, urine, or CSF cultures. The rates of SBI by age-of-birth and age-at-visit were calculated and compared to a cohort of matched full-term controls.ResultsThe study included a total of 290 ex-premature cases and 290 full-term controls. There were 11 cases (3.8%) with an invasive bacterial infection (IBI) of either bacteremia, meningitis or both and only six controls (2.1%) with IBI (p = 0.32). Over 28-days chronologic-age, there were 10 (3.6%) IBIs among cases and no IBIs among the controls (p = 0.02). There were eight (3%) cases and three (1%) controls with IBI who were well-appearing on physical examination (p = 0.19). All eight well-appearing ex-premature infants were under 60-days adjusted-age, seven of whom (88%) were also under 28-days adjusted-age. There were 28 (10.6%) cases and 34 (12%) controls with urinary tract infection (UTI) (p = 0.5). Among cases under 60-days adjusted-age, urinalysis was not reliable to exclude UTI (50% negative).ConclusionsWell-appearing ex-preterm infants have a significant risk for IBI until the adjusted age of 28-days and for UTI until the adjusted age of 60-days. Further studies are needed to evaluate the approach to fever in this unique population.
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Project description:BackgroundParents of febrile children frequently contact primary care. Longer duration of fever has been related to increased risk for serious bacterial infections (SBI). However, the evidence for this association remains controversial. We assessed the predictive value of duration of fever for SBI.MethodsStudies from MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane databases (from January 1991 to December 2009) were retrieved. We included studies describing children aged 2 months to 6 years in countries with high Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccination coverage. Duration of fever had to be studied as a predictor for serious bacterial infections.ResultsSeven studies assessed the association between duration of fever and serious bacterial infections; three of these found a relationship.ConclusionThe predictive value of duration of fever for identifying serious bacterial infections in children remains inconclusive. None of these seven studies was performed in primary care. Studies evaluating the duration of fever and its predictive value in children in primary care are required.
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Project description:ImportanceProton pump inhibitor (PPI) use may lead to infections through alteration of the microbiota or direct action on the immune system. However, only a few studies were conducted in children, with conflicting results.ObjectiveTo assess the associations between PPI use and serious infections in children, overall and by infection site and pathogen.Design, setting, and participantsThis nationwide cohort study was based on the Mother-Child EPI-MERES Register built from the French Health Data System (SNDS). We included all children born between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2018, who received a treatment for gastroesophageal reflux disease or other gastric acid-related disorders, namely PPIs, histamine 2 receptor antagonists, or antacids/alginate. The index date was defined as the first date any of these medications was dispensed. Children were followed up until admission to the hospital for serious infection, loss of follow-up, death, or December 31, 2019.ExposurePPI exposure over time.Main outcomes and measuresAssociations between serious infections and PPI use were estimated by adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs using Cox models. PPI use was introduced as time-varying. A 30-day lag was applied to minimize reverse causality. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic data, pregnancy characteristics, child comorbidities, and health care utilization.ResultsThe study population comprised 1 262 424 children (median [IQR] follow-up, 3.8 [1.8-6.2] years), including 606 645 who received PPI (323 852 male [53.4%]; median [IQR] age at index date, 88 [44-282] days) and 655 779 who did not receive PPI (342 454 male [52.2%]; median [IQR] age, 82 [44-172] days). PPI exposure was associated with an increased risk of serious infections overall (aHR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.32-1.36). Increased risks were also observed for infections in the digestive tract (aHR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.48-1.55); ear, nose, and throat sphere (aHR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.41-1.52); lower respiratory tract (aHR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.19-1.25); kidneys or urinary tract (aHR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.15-1.25); and nervous system (aHR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.11-1.54) and for both bacterial (aHR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.50-1.63) and viral infections (aHR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.28-1.33).Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, PPI use was associated with increased risks of serious infections in young children. Proton pump inhibitors should not be used without a clear indication in this population.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Although evidence from animal and human studies indicates opioid analgesics increase susceptibility to infections, it is unclear whether the risk varies by specific opioid. We compared the risk of serious infection among patients initiating long-acting opioid analgesics with and without previously reported immunosuppressive properties. METHODS:We conducted a retrospective cohort study of Tennessee Medicaid enrollees age ≥18 years initiating long-acting opioids (1995-2015). Hospitalizations for serious infection were identified using validated coding algorithms. We used multivariable Poisson regression models to calculate adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to compare the infection risk among patients using long-acting opioids with known immunosuppressive properties (morphine, fentanyl, methadone) to the infection risk among patients using long-acting opioids without known immunosuppressive properties (oxycodone, oxymorphone, tramadol) accounting for demographics, opioid dose, comorbidities and pain conditions, medication use, frailty indicators, and healthcare encounter history using exposure propensity scores. We further compared users of individual long-acting opioids to long-acting morphine users (considered the prototypical immunosuppressive opioid). RESULTS:Among the 61 240 patients initiating opioids with immunosuppressive properties and 22 811 patients initiating opioids without immunosuppressive properties, we identified 1906 serious infections. Nonimmunosuppressive opioid users had a lower rate of infections than immunosuppressive opioid users (aIRR:0.78 [CI: 0.66-0.91]). Among individual opioids, oxycodone users had a lower rate of infection than morphine users (aIRR:0.73 [CI: 0.60-0.89]). There were no significant differences in the infection risk between other opioids and morphine. CONCLUSION:The risk of serious infections among long-acting opioid users varies by opioid type. Providers should carefully consider the risk of serious infections when making pain management decisions.
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Project description:BackgroundMany studies have evaluated the accuracy of dipstick tests as rapid detectors of bacteriuria and urinary tract infections (UTI). The lack of an adequate explanation for the heterogeneity of the dipstick accuracy stimulates an ongoing debate. The objective of the present meta-analysis was to summarise the available evidence on the diagnostic accuracy of the urine dipstick test, taking into account various pre-defined potential sources of heterogeneity.MethodsLiterature from 1990 through 1999 was searched in Medline and Embase, and by reference tracking. Selected publications should be concerned with the diagnosis of bacteriuria or urinary tract infections, investigate the use of dipstick tests for nitrites and/or leukocyte esterase, and present empirical data. A checklist was used to assess methodological quality.Results70 publications were included. Accuracy of nitrites was high in pregnant women (Diagnostic Odds Ratio = 165) and elderly people (DOR = 108). Positive predictive values were >/=80% in elderly and in family medicine. Accuracy of leukocyte-esterase was high in studies in urology patients (DOR = 276). Sensitivities were highest in family medicine (86%). Negative predictive values were high in both tests in all patient groups and settings, except for in family medicine. The combination of both test results showed an important increase in sensitivity. Accuracy was high in studies in urology patients (DOR = 52), in children (DOR = 46), and if clinical information was present (DOR = 28). Sensitivity was highest in studies carried out in family medicine (90%). Predictive values of combinations of positive test results were low in all other situations.ConclusionsOverall, this review demonstrates that the urine dipstick test alone seems to be useful in all populations to exclude the presence of infection if the results of both nitrites and leukocyte-esterase are negative. Sensitivities of the combination of both tests vary between 68 and 88% in different patient groups, but positive test results have to be confirmed. Although the combination of positive test results is very sensitive in family practice, the usefulness of the dipstick test alone to rule in infection remains doubtful, even with high pre-test probabilities.
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Project description:BackgroundThe National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) have called for research into the role of biomarkers, and specifically procalcitonin (PCT), for the early diagnosis of serious bacterial infections (SBI) in children. The aim of this study was to compare the diagnostic test accuracy of C-reactive protein (CRP) and PCT for the diagnosis of SBI in children.MethodsData was collected prospectively from four UK emergency departments (ED) between November 2017 and June 2019. Consecutive children under 18 years of age with fever and features of possible sepsis and/or meningitis were eligible for inclusion. The index tests were PCT and CRP and the reference standard was the confirmation of SBI.Results213 children were included in the final analysis. 116 participants (54.5%) were male, and the median age was 2 years, 9 months. Parenteral antibiotics were given to 100 (46.9%), three (1.4%) were admitted to a paediatric intensive care unit and there were no deaths. There were ten (4.7%) confirmed SBI. The area under the curve for PCT and CRP for the detection of SBI was identical at 0.70.ConclusionsThere was no difference in the performance of PCT and CRP for the recognition of SBI in this cohort.Trial registrationRegistered at https://www.clinicaltrials.gov (trial registration: NCT03378258 ) on the 19th of December 2017.
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Project description:ImportanceIn young febrile infants, serious bacterial infections (SBIs), including urinary tract infections, bacteremia, and meningitis, may lead to dangerous complications. However, lumbar punctures and hospitalizations involve risks and costs. Clinical prediction rules using biomarkers beyond the white blood cell count (WBC) may accurately identify febrile infants at low risk for SBIs.ObjectiveTo derive and validate a prediction rule to identify febrile infants 60 days and younger at low risk for SBIs.Design, setting, and participantsProspective, observational study between March 2011 and May 2013 at 26 emergency departments. Convenience sample of previously healthy febrile infants 60 days and younger who were evaluated for SBIs. Data were analyzed between April 2014 and April 2018.ExposuresClinical and laboratory data (blood and urine) including patient demographics, fever height and duration, clinical appearance, WBC, absolute neutrophil count (ANC), serum procalcitonin, and urinalysis. We derived and validated a prediction rule based on these variables using binary recursive partitioning analysis.Main outcomes and measuresSerious bacterial infection, defined as urinary tract infection, bacteremia, or bacterial meningitis.ResultsWe derived the prediction rule on a random sample of 908 infants and validated it on 913 infants (mean age was 36 days, 765 were girls [42%], 781 were white and non-Hispanic [43%], 366 were black [20%], and 535 were Hispanic [29%]). Serious bacterial infections were present in 170 of 1821 infants (9.3%), including 26 (1.4%) with bacteremia, 151 (8.3%) with urinary tract infections, and 10 (0.5%) with bacterial meningitis; 16 (0.9%) had concurrent SBIs. The prediction rule identified infants at low risk of SBI using a negative urinalysis result, an ANC of 4090/µL or less (to convert to ×109 per liter, multiply by 0.001), and serum procalcitonin of 1.71 ng/mL or less. In the validation cohort, the rule sensitivity was 97.7% (95% CI, 91.3-99.6), specificity was 60.0% (95% CI, 56.6-63.3), negative predictive value was 99.6% (95% CI, 98.4-99.9), and negative likelihood ratio was 0.04 (95% CI, 0.01-0.15). One infant with bacteremia and 2 infants with urinary tract infections were misclassified. No patients with bacterial meningitis were missed by the rule. The rule performance was nearly identical when the outcome was restricted to bacteremia and/or bacterial meningitis, missing the same infant with bacteremia.Conclusions and relevanceWe derived and validated an accurate prediction rule to identify febrile infants 60 days and younger at low risk for SBIs using the urinalysis, ANC, and procalcitonin levels. Once further validated on an independent cohort, clinical application of the rule has the potential to decrease unnecessary lumbar punctures, antibiotic administration, and hospitalizations.
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Project description:The rise in the frequency of anthropogenic earthquakes due to deep fluid injections is posing serious economic, societal, and legal challenges to many geo-energy and waste-disposal projects. Existing tools to assess such problems are still inherently heuristic and mostly based on expert elicitation (so-called clinical judgment). We propose, as a complementary approach, an adaptive traffic light system (ATLS) that is function of a statistical model of induced seismicity. It offers an actuarial judgement of the risk, which is based on a mapping between earthquake magnitude and risk. Using data from six underground reservoir stimulation experiments, mostly from Enhanced Geothermal Systems, we illustrate how such a data-driven adaptive forecasting system could guarantee a risk-based safety target. The proposed model, which includes a linear relationship between seismicity rate and flow rate, as well as a normal diffusion process for post-injection, is first confirmed to be representative of the data. Being integrable, the model yields a closed-form ATLS solution that is both transparent and robust. Although simulations verify that the safety target is consistently ensured when the ATLS is applied, the model from which simulations are generated is validated on a limited dataset, hence still requiring further tests in additional fluid injection environments.
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Project description:ImportanceBruising caused by physical abuse is the most common antecedent injury to be overlooked or misdiagnosed as nonabusive before an abuse-related fatality or near-fatality in a young child. Bruising occurs from both nonabuse and abuse, but differences identified by a clinical decision rule may allow improved and earlier recognition of the abused child.ObjectiveTo refine and validate a previously derived bruising clinical decision rule (BCDR), the TEN-4 (bruising to torso, ear, or neck or any bruising on an infant <4.99 months of age), for identifying children at risk of having been physically abused.Design, setting, and participantsThis prospective cross-sectional study was conducted from December 1, 2011, to March 31, 2016, at emergency departments of 5 urban children's hospitals. Children younger than 4 years with bruising were identified through deliberate examination. Statistical analysis was completed in June 2020.ExposuresBruising characteristics in 34 discrete body regions, patterned bruising, cumulative bruise counts, and patient's age. The BCDR was refined and validated based on these variables using binary recursive partitioning analysis.Main outcomes and measuresInjury from abusive vs nonabusive trauma was determined by the consensus judgment of a multidisciplinary expert panel.ResultsA total of 21 123 children were consecutively screened for bruising, and 2161 patients (mean [SD] age, 2.1 [1.1] years; 1296 [60%] male; 1785 [83%] White; 1484 [69%] non-Hispanic/Latino) were enrolled. The expert panel achieved consensus on 2123 patients (98%), classifying 410 (19%) as abuse and 1713 (79%) as nonabuse. A classification tree was fit to refine the rule and validated via bootstrap resampling. The resulting BCDR was 95.6% (95% CI, 93.0%-97.3%) sensitive and 87.1% (95% CI, 85.4%-88.6%) specific for distinguishing abuse from nonabusive trauma based on body region bruised (torso, ear, neck, frenulum, angle of jaw, cheeks [fleshy], eyelids, and subconjunctivae), bruising anywhere on an infant 4.99 months and younger, or patterned bruising (TEN-4-FACESp).Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, an affirmative finding for any of the 3 BCDR TEN-4-FACESp components in children younger than 4 years indicated a potential risk for abuse; these results warrant further evaluation. Clinical application of this tool has the potential to improve recognition of abuse in young children with bruising.
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