Dataset Information

Does litter size variation affect models of terrestrial carnivore extinction risk and management?

ABSTRACT:

Background

Individual variation in both survival and reproduction has the potential to influence extinction risk. Especially for rare or threatened species, reliable population models should adequately incorporate demographic uncertainty. Here, we focus on an important form of demographic stochasticity: variation in litter sizes. We use terrestrial carnivores as an example taxon, as they are frequently threatened or of economic importance. Since data on intraspecific litter size variation are often sparse, it is unclear what probability distribution should be used to describe the pattern of litter size variation for multiparous carnivores.

Methodology/principal findings

We used litter size data on 32 terrestrial carnivore species to test the fit of 12 probability distributions. The influence of these distributions on quasi-extinction probabilities and the probability of successful disease control was then examined for three canid species - the island fox Urocyon littoralis, the red fox Vulpes vulpes, and the African wild dog Lycaon pictus. Best fitting probability distributions differed among the carnivores examined. However, the discretised normal distribution provided the best fit for the majority of species, because variation among litter-sizes was often small. Importantly, however, the outcomes of demographic models were generally robust to the distribution used.

Conclusion/significance

These results provide reassurance for those using demographic modelling for the management of less studied carnivores in which litter size variation is estimated using data from species with similar reproductive attributes.

SUBMITTER: Devenish-Nelson ES

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3585178 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Does litter size variation affect models of terrestrial carnivore extinction risk and management?

Devenish-Nelson Eleanor S ES Stephens Philip A PA Harris Stephen S Soulsbury Carl C Richards Shane A SA

PloS one 20130228 2

<h4>Background</h4>Individual variation in both survival and reproduction has the potential to influence extinction risk. Especially for rare or threatened species, reliable population models should adequately incorporate demographic uncertainty. Here, we focus on an important form of demographic stochasticity: variation in litter sizes. We use terrestrial carnivores as an example taxon, as they are frequently threatened or of economic importance. Since data on intraspecific litter size variatio ...[more]

PMID: 23469140

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Project description:BackgroundThe quantitative genetics theory argues that inbreeding depression and heterosis are founded on the existence of directional dominance. However, most procedures for genomic selection that have included dominance effects assumed prior symmetrical distributions. To address this, two alternatives can be considered: (1) assume the mean of dominance effects different from zero, and (2) use skewed distributions for the regularization of dominance effects. The aim of this study was to compare these approaches using two pig datasets and to confirm the presence of directional dominance.ResultsFour alternative models were implemented in two datasets of pig litter size that consisted of 13,449 and 11,581 records from 3631 and 2612 sows genotyped with the Illumina PorcineSNP60 BeadChip. The models evaluated included (1) a model that does not consider directional dominance (Model SN), (2) a model with a covariate b for the average individual homozygosity (Model SC), (3) a model with a parameter ? that reflects asymmetry in the context of skewed Gaussian distributions (Model AN), and (4) a model that includes both b and ? (Model Full). The results of the analysis showed that posterior probabilities of a negative b or a positive ? under Models SC and AN were higher than 0.99, which indicate positive directional dominance. This was confirmed with the predictions of inbreeding depression under Models Full, SC and AN, that were higher than in the SN Model. In spite of differences in posterior estimates of variance components between models, comparison of models based on LogCPO and DIC indicated that Model SC provided the best fit for the two datasets analyzed.ConclusionsOur results confirmed the presence of positive directional dominance for pig litter size and suggested that it should be taken into account when dominance effects are included in genomic evaluation procedures. The consequences of ignoring directional dominance may affect predictions of breeding values and can lead to biased prediction of inbreeding depression and performance of potential mates. A model that assumes Gaussian dominance effects that are centered on a non-zero mean is recommended, at least for datasets with similar features to those analyzed here.

Dataset Information

Does litter size variation affect models of terrestrial carnivore extinction risk and management?

Background

Methodology/principal findings

Conclusion/significance

Publications

Does litter size variation affect models of terrestrial carnivore extinction risk and management?

Similar Datasets

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