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Evolution of virulence in emerging epidemics.


ABSTRACT: Theory predicts that selection for pathogen virulence and horizontal transmission is highest at the onset of an epidemic but decreases thereafter, as the epidemic depletes the pool of susceptible hosts. We tested this prediction by tracking the competition between the latent bacteriophage ? and its virulent mutant ?cI857 throughout experimental epidemics taking place in continuous cultures of Escherichia coli. As expected, the virulent ?cI857 is strongly favored in the early stage of the epidemic, but loses competition with the latent virus as prevalence increases. We show that the observed transient selection for virulence and horizontal transmission can be fully explained within the framework of evolutionary epidemiology theory. This experimental validation of our predictions is a key step towards a predictive theory for the evolution of virulence in emerging infectious diseases.

SUBMITTER: Berngruber TW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3597519 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evolution of virulence in emerging epidemics.

Berngruber Thomas W TW   Froissart Rémy R   Choisy Marc M   Gandon Sylvain S  

PLoS pathogens 20130314 3


Theory predicts that selection for pathogen virulence and horizontal transmission is highest at the onset of an epidemic but decreases thereafter, as the epidemic depletes the pool of susceptible hosts. We tested this prediction by tracking the competition between the latent bacteriophage λ and its virulent mutant λcI857 throughout experimental epidemics taking place in continuous cultures of Escherichia coli. As expected, the virulent λcI857 is strongly favored in the early stage of the epidemi  ...[more]

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