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Early warning scores generated in developed healthcare settings are not sufficient at predicting early mortality in Blantyre, Malawi: a prospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT: Early warning scores (EWS) are widely used in well-resourced healthcare settings to identify patients at risk of mortality. The Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) is a well-known EWS used comprehensively in the United Kingdom. The HOTEL score (Hypotension, Oxygen saturation, Temperature, ECG abnormality, Loss of independence) was developed and tested in a European cohort; however, its validity is unknown in resource limited settings. This study compared the performance of both scores and suggested modifications to enhance accuracy.A prospective cohort study of adults (?18 yrs) admitted to medical wards at a Malawian hospital. Primary outcome was mortality within three days. Performance of MEWS and HOTEL were assessed using ROC analysis. Logistic regression analysis identified important predictors of mortality and from this a new score was defined.Three-hundred-and-two patients were included. Fifty-one (16.9%) died within three days of admission. With a cut-point ?2, the HOTEL score had sensitivity 70.6% (95% CI: 56.2 to 82.5) and specificity 59.4% (95% CI: 53.0 to 65.5), and was superior to MEWS (cut-point ?5); sensitivity: 58.8% (95% CI: 44.2 to 72.4), specificity: 56.2% (95% CI: 49.8 to 62.4). The new score, dubbed TOTAL (Tachypnoea, Oxygen saturation, Temperature, Alert, Loss of independence), showed slight improvement with a cut-point ?2; sensitivity 76.5% (95% CI: 62.5 to 87.2) and specificity 67.3% (95% CI: 61.1 to 73.1).Using an EWS generated in developed healthcare systems in resource limited settings results in loss of sensitivity and specificity. A score based on predictors of mortality specific to the Malawian population showed enhanced accuracy but not enough to warrant clinical use. Despite an assumption of common physiological responses, disease and population differences seem to strongly determine the performance of EWS. Local validation and impact assessment of these scores should precede their adoption in resource limited settings.

SUBMITTER: Wheeler I

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3612104 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early warning scores generated in developed healthcare settings are not sufficient at predicting early mortality in Blantyre, Malawi: a prospective cohort study.

Wheeler India I Price Charlotte C Sitch Alice A Banda Peter P Kellett John J Nyirenda Mulinda M Rylance Jamie J

PloS one 20130329 3

<h4>Aim</h4>Early warning scores (EWS) are widely used in well-resourced healthcare settings to identify patients at risk of mortality. The Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) is a well-known EWS used comprehensively in the United Kingdom. The HOTEL score (Hypotension, Oxygen saturation, Temperature, ECG abnormality, Loss of independence) was developed and tested in a European cohort; however, its validity is unknown in resource limited settings. This study compared the performance of both score ...[more]

PMID: 23555796

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Project description:BackgroundDespite advocating for male involvement in antenatal education, there is unmet need for antenatal education information for expectant couples. The objective of this study was to gain a deeper understanding of the education content for couples during antenatal education sessions in Malawi. This is needed for the development of a tailor-made curriculum for couple antenatal education in the country, later to be tested for acceptability, feasibility and effectiveness.MethodsAn exploratory cross sectional descriptive study using a qualitative approach was conducted in semi-urban areas of Blantyre District in Malawi from February to August 2016. We conducted four focus group discussions (FGDs) among men and women independently. We also conducted one focus group discussion with nurses/ midwives, 13 key informant interviews whose participants were drawn from both health-related and non-health related institutions; 10 in-depth interviews with couples and 10 separate in-depth interviews with men who had attended antenatal clinics before with their spouses. All the interviews were audiotaped, transcribed verbatim and translated from Chichewa, the local language, into English. We managed data with NVivo 10.0 and used the thematic content approach as a guide for analysis.ResultsWe identified one overarching theme: couple antenatal education information needs. The theme had three subthemes which were identified based on the three domains of the maternity cycle which are pregnancy, labour and delivery and postpartum period. Preferred topics were; description of pregnancy, care of pregnant women, role of men during perinatal period, family life birth preparedness and complication readiness plan, coitus during pregnancy and after delivery, childbirth and baby care.ConclusionAntenatal education is a potential platform to disseminate information and discuss with male partners the childbearing period and early parenting. Hence, if both men and women were to participate in antenatal education, their information needs should be prioritized. Men and women had similar choices of topics to be taught during couple antenatal education, with some minor variations.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12884-018-2137-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Project description:ImportanceEarly warning scores (EWSs) are designed for in-hospital use but are widely used in the prehospital field, especially in select groups of patients potentially at high risk. To be useful for paramedics in daily prehospital clinical practice, evaluations are needed of the predictive value of EWSs based on first measured vital signs on scene in large cohorts covering unselected patients using ambulance services.ObjectiveTo validate EWSs' ability to predict mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) stay in an unselected cohort of adult patients who used ambulances.Design, setting, and participantsThis prognostic study conducted a validation based on a cohort of adult patients (aged ≥18 years) who used ambulances in the North Denmark Region from July 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. EWSs (National Early Warning Score 2 [NEWS2], modified NEWS score without temperature [mNEWS], Quick Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment [qSOFA], Rapid Emergency Triage and Treatment System [RETTS], and Danish Emergency Process Triage [DEPT]) were calculated using first vital signs measured by ambulance personnel. Data were analyzed from September 2022 through May 2023.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was 30-day-mortality. Secondary outcomes were 1-day-mortality and ICU admission. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC).ResultsThere were 107 569 unique patients (52 650 females [48.9%]; median [IQR] age, 65 [45-77] years) from the entire cohort of 219 323 patients who used ambulance services, among whom 119 992 patients (54.7%) had called the Danish national emergency number. NEWS2, mNEWS, RETTS, and DEPT performed similarly concerning 30-day mortality (AUROC range, 0.67 [95% CI, 0.66-0.68] for DEPT to 0.68 [95% CI, 0.68-0.69] for mNEWS), while qSOFA had lower performance (AUROC, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.59-0.60]; P vs other scores < .001). All EWSs had low AUPRCs, ranging from 0.09 (95% CI, 0.09-0.09) for qSOFA to 0.14 (95% CI, 0.13-0.14) for mNEWS.. Concerning 1-day mortality and ICU admission NEWS2, mNEWS, RETTS, and DEPT performed similarly, with AUROCs ranging from 0.72 (95% CI, 0.71-0.73) for RETTS to 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74-0.76) for DEPT in 1-day mortality and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.65-0.67) for RETTS to 0.68 (95% CI, 0.67-0.69) for mNEWS in ICU admission, and all EWSs had low AUPRCs. These ranged from 0.02 (95% CI, 0.02-0.03) for qSOFA to 0.04 (95% CI, 0.04-0.04) for DEPT in 1-day mortality and 0.03 (95% CI, 0.03-0.03) for qSOFA to 0.05 (95% CI, 0.04-0.05) for DEPT in ICU admission.Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that EWSs in daily clinical use in emergency medical settings performed moderately in the prehospital field among unselected patients who used ambulances when assessed based on initial measurements of vital signs. These findings suggest the need of appropriate triage and early identification of patients at low and high risk with new and better EWSs also suitable for prehospital use.

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Early warning scores generated in developed healthcare settings are not sufficient at predicting early mortality in Blantyre, Malawi: a prospective cohort study.

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Early warning scores generated in developed healthcare settings are not sufficient at predicting early mortality in Blantyre, Malawi: a prospective cohort study.

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