Dataset Information

Assessment of a multimarker strategy for prediction of mortality in older heart failure patients: a cohort study.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Primarily to develop a multimarker score for prediction of 3-year mortality in older patients with decompensated heart failure (HF).

Design

Prospective cohort study.

Setting

Secondary care. Single centre. PATIENTS AND BIOMARKERS: 131 patients, aged ?65 years, with decompensated HF were included. Assessment of biomarkers was performed at discharge.

Primary outcome measure

3-year mortality.

Results

Mean age was 73±11 years; mean left ventricular ejection fraction , 43±14%; 53% were male. The 3-year mortality was 53.4%. The following N-terminal brain natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP) levels could optimally stratify mortality: <2000 ng/l (n=39), 30.8% mortality; 2000-8000 ng/l (n=58), 51.7% mortality; and >8000 ng/l (n=34), 82.4% mortality. However, in the 2000-8000 ng/l range, NTproBNP levels had low-prognostic capacity, based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC=0.53; 95% CI 0.40 to 0.67). In this group, multivariate analysis identified age, cystatin C (CysC), and troponin T (TnT) levels as independent risk factors. A risk score based on these three risk factors separated a high-risk and low-risk groups within the NTproBNP range of 2000-8000 ng/l. The score exhibited a significantly higher AUC (0.75; 95% CI 0.62 to 0.86) than NTproBNP alone (p=0.03) in this NTproBNP group and had similar prognostic capacity as NTproBNP in patients below or above this NTproBNP range (p=0.57). Net reclassification improvement and integrated discriminatory improvement in the group with NTproBNP levels between 2000 and 8000 ng/l was 54% and 23%, respectively, and in the whole cohort 22% and 11%, respectively.

Conclusions

Our results suggested that, to assess risk in HF, older patients required significantly higher levels of NTproBNP than younger patients. Furthermore, a risk score that included TnT and CysC at discharge, and age could improve risk stratification for mortality in older patients with HF in particular when NTproBNP was moderately elevated.

SUBMITTER: Bjurman C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3612770 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Assessment of a multimarker strategy for prediction of mortality in older heart failure patients: a cohort study.

Bjurman Christian C Jensen Juliana J Petzold Max M Hammarsten Ola O Fu Michael L X ML

BMJ open 20130309 3

<h4>Objective</h4>Primarily to develop a multimarker score for prediction of 3-year mortality in older patients with decompensated heart failure (HF).<h4>Design</h4>Prospective cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>Secondary care. Single centre. PATIENTS AND BIOMARKERS: 131 patients, aged ≥65 years, with decompensated HF were included. Assessment of biomarkers was performed at discharge.<h4>Primary outcome measure</h4>3-year mortality.<h4>Results</h4>Mean age was 73±11 years; mean left ventricular ejecti ...[more]

PMID: 23474790

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Project description:BackgroundSeveral biological pathways are activated in ventricular remodeling and in overt heart failure (HF). There are no data, however, on the incremental utility of a parsimonious set of biomarkers (reflecting pathways implicated in HF) for predicting HF risk in the community.Methods and resultsWe related a multibiomarker panel to the incidence of a first HF event in 2754 Framingham Heart Study participants (mean age, 58 years; 54 women) who were free of HF and underwent routine assays for 6 biomarkers (C-reactive protein, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, homocysteine, aldosterone-to-renin ratio, B-type natriuretic peptide, and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio). We estimated model c statistic, calibration, and net reclassification improvement to assess the incremental predictive usefulness of biomarkers. We also related biomarkers to the incidence of nonischemic HF in participants without prevalent coronary heart disease. On follow-up (mean, 9.4 years), 95 first HF events occurred (54 in men). In multivariable-adjusted models, the biomarker panel was significantly related to HF risk (P=0.00005). On backward elimination, B-type natriuretic peptide and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio emerged as key biomarkers predicting HF risk; hazards ratios per 1-SD increment in log marker were 1.52 (95 confidence interval, 1.24 to 1.87) and 1.35 (95 confidence interval, 1.11 to 1.66), respectively. B-type natriuretic peptide and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio significantly improved the model c statistic from 0.84 (95 confidence interval, 0.80 to 0.88) in standard models to 0.86 (95 confidence interval, 0.83 to 0.90), enhanced risk reclassification (net reclassification improvement=0.13; P=0.002), and were independently associated with nonischemic HF risk.ConclusionUsing a multimarker strategy, we identified B-type natriuretic peptide and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio as key risk factors for new-onset HF with incremental predictive utility over standard risk factors.

Project description:BackgroundCachexia substantially impacts the prognosis of patients with heart failure (HF); however, there is no standard method for cachexia diagnosis. This study aimed to investigate the association of Evans's criteria, consisting of multiple assessments, with the prognosis of HF in older adults.MethodsThis study is a secondary analysis of the data from the FRAGILE-HF study, a prospective multicentre cohort study that enrolled consecutive hospitalized patients aged ≥65 years with HF. Patients were divided into two groups: the cachexia and non-cachexia groups. Cachexia was defined according to Evans's criteria by assessing weight loss, muscle weakness, fatigue, anorexia, a decreased fat-free mass index and an abnormal biochemical profile. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, as assessed in the survival analysis.ResultsCachexia was present in 35.5% of the 1306 enrolled patients (median age [inter-quartile range], 81 [74-86] years; 57.0% male); 59.6%, 73.2%, 15.6%, 71.0%, 44.9% and 64.6% had weight loss, decreased muscle strength, a low fat-free mass index, abnormal biochemistry, anorexia and fatigue, respectively. All-cause mortality occurred in 270 patients (21.0%) over 2 years. The cachexia group (hazard ratio [HR], 1.494; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.173-1.903; P = 0.001) had a higher mortality risk than the non-cachexia group after adjusting for the severity of HF. Cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular deaths occurred in 148 (11.3%) and 122 patients (9.3%), respectively. The adjusted HRs for cachexia in cardiovascular mortality and non-cardiovascular mortality were 1.456 (95% CI, 1.048-2.023; P = 0.025) and 1.561 (95% CI, 1.086-2.243; P = 0.017), respectively. Among the cachexia diagnostic criteria, decreased muscle strength (HR, 1.514; 95% CI, 1.095-2.093; P = 0.012) and low fat-free mass index (HR, 1.424; 95% CI, 1.052-1.926; P = 0.022) were significantly associated with high all-cause mortality, but there was no significant association between weight loss alone (HR, 1.147; 95% CI, 0.895-1.471; P = 0.277) and all-cause mortality.ConclusionsCachexia evaluated by multi-assessment was present in one third of older adults with HF and was associated with a worse prognosis. A multimodal assessment of cachexia may be helpful for risk stratification in older patients with HF.

Dataset Information

Assessment of a multimarker strategy for prediction of mortality in older heart failure patients: a cohort study.

Objective

Design

Setting

Primary outcome measure

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Assessment of a multimarker strategy for prediction of mortality in older heart failure patients: a cohort study.

Similar Datasets

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