Dataset Information

A prognostic model for 6-month mortality in elderly survivors of critical illness.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Although 1.4 million elderly Americans survive hospitalization involving intensive care annually, many are at risk for early mortality following discharge. No models that predict the likelihood of death after discharge exist explicitly for this population. Therefore, we derived and externally validated a 6-month postdischarge mortality prediction model for elderly ICU survivors.

Methods

We derived the model from medical record and claims data for 1,526 consecutive patients aged ? 65 years who had their first medical ICU admission in 2006 to 2009 at a tertiary-care hospital and survived to discharge (excluding those patients discharged to hospice). We then validated the model in 1,010 patients from a different tertiary-care hospital.

Results

Six-month mortality was 27.3% and 30.2% in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Independent predictors of mortality (in descending order of contribution to the model's predictive power) were a do-not-resuscitate order, older age, burden of comorbidity, admission from or discharge to a skilled-care facility, hospital length of stay, principal diagnoses of sepsis and hematologic malignancy, and male sex. For the derivation and external validation cohorts, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.80 (SE, 0.01) and 0.71 (SE, 0.02), respectively, with good calibration for both (P = 0.31 and 0.43).

Conclusions

Clinical variables available at hospital discharge can help predict 6-month mortality for elderly ICU survivors. Variables that capture elements of frailty, disability, the burden of comorbidity, and patient preferences regarding resuscitation during the hospitalization contribute most to this model's predictive power. The model could aid providers in counseling elderly ICU survivors at high risk of death and their families.

SUBMITTER: Baldwin MR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3616685 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A prognostic model for 6-month mortality in elderly survivors of critical illness.

Baldwin Matthew R MR Narain Wazim R WR Wunsch Hannah H Schluger Neil W NW Cooke Joseph T JT Maurer Mathew S MS Rowe John W JW Lederer David J DJ Bach Peter B PB

Chest 20130401 4

<h4>Background</h4>Although 1.4 million elderly Americans survive hospitalization involving intensive care annually, many are at risk for early mortality following discharge. No models that predict the likelihood of death after discharge exist explicitly for this population. Therefore, we derived and externally validated a 6-month postdischarge mortality prediction model for elderly ICU survivors.<h4>Methods</h4>We derived the model from medical record and claims data for 1,526 consecutive patie ...[more]

PMID: 23632902

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:The 1.5 million Medicare beneficiaries who survive intensive care each year have a high post-hospitalization mortality rate. We aimed to determine whether mortality after critical illness is higher for Medicare beneficiaries with Medicaid compared with those with commercial insurance. DESIGN:A retrospective cohort study from 2010 through 2014 with 1 year of follow-up using the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System database. SETTING:A New York State population-based study of older (age??65?y) survivors of intensive care. PARTICIPANTS:Adult Medicare beneficiaries age 65?years or older who were hospitalized with intensive care at a New York State hospital and survived to discharge. INTERVENTION:None. MEASUREMENT:Mortality in the first year after hospital discharge. RESULTS:The study included 340 969 Medicare beneficiary survivors of intensive care with a mean (standard deviation) age of 77 (8) years; 20% died within 1 year. There were 152 869 (45%) with commercial insurance, 78 577 (23%) with Medicaid, and 109 523 (32%) with Medicare alone. Compared with those with commercial insurance, those with Medicare alone had a similar 1-year mortality rate (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]?=?1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI]?=?.99-1.04), and those with Medicaid had a 9% higher 1-year mortality rate (aHR?=?1.09; 95% CI?=?1.05-1.12). Among those discharged home, the 1-year mortality rate did not vary by insurance coverage, but among those discharged to skilled-care facilities (SCFs), the 1-year mortality rate was 16% higher for Medicaid recipients (aHR?=?1.16; 95% CI?=?1.12-1.21; P for interaction <.001). CONCLUSIONS:Older adults with Medicaid insurance have a higher 1-year post-hospitalization mortality compared with those with commercial insurance, especially among those discharged to SCFs. Future studies should investigate care disparities at SCFs that may mediate these higher mortality rates. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:2497-2504, 2019.

Project description:Preventing rehospitalizations for patients with serious chronic illnesses is a focus of national quality initiatives. Although 8 million people are admitted yearly to an ICU, the frequency of rehospitalizations (readmissions to the hospital after discharge) is unknown. We sought to determine the frequency of rehospitalization after an ICU stay, outcomes for rehospitalized patients, and factors associated with rehospitalization.Retrospective cohort study using the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System, an administrative database of all hospital discharges in New York State.ICUs in New York State.ICU patients who survived to hospital discharge in 2008-2010.None.Primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of first early rehospitalization (within 30 days of discharge), and secondary outcome was the cumulative incidence of late rehospitalization (between 31 and 180 d). Factors associated with rehospitalization within both time periods were identified using competing risk regression models. Of 492,653 ICU patients, 79,960 had a first early rehospitalization (cumulative incidence, 16.2%) and an additional 73,250 late rehospitalizations (cumulative incidence, 18.9%). Over one quarter of all rehospitalizations (28.6% for early; 26.7% for late) involved ICU admission. Overall hospital mortality for rehospitalized patients was 7.6% for early and 4.6% for late rehospitalizations. Longer index hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.57-1.66 for 7-13 d vs < 3 d), discharge to a skilled nursing facility versus home (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.51-1.58), and having metastatic cancer (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.41-1.51) were associated with the greatest hazard of early rehospitalization.Approximately 16% of ICU survivors were rehospitalized within 30 days of hospital discharge; rehospitalized patients had high rates of ICU admission and hospital mortality. Few characteristics were strongly associated with rehospitalization, suggesting that identifying high-risk individuals for intervention may require additional predictors beyond what is available in administrative databases.

Project description:ObjectivesLittle is known about frailty that develops following critical illness. We sought to describe the prevalence of newly acquired frailty, its clinical course, and the co-occurrence of frailty with disability and cognitive impairment in survivors of critical illness.DesignLongitudinal prospective cohort study.SettingMedical and surgical ICUs at five U.S. centers.PatientsAdult patients treated for respiratory failure and/or shock.Measurements and main resultsWe measured frailty with the Clinical Frailty Scale at baseline (i.e., study enrollment) and at 3 and 12 months postdischarge. We constructed alluvial diagrams to describe the course of frailty and Venn diagrams to describe the overlap of frailty with disability in activities of daily living and cognitive impairment. We included 567 participants a median (interquartile range) of 61 years old (51-70 yr old) with a high severity of illness (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II of 23). Frailty (Clinical Frailty Scale scores ≥ 5) was present in 135 of 567 (24%) at baseline, 239 of 530 (45%) at 3 months, and 163 of 445 (37%) at 12 months. Of those with frailty at 3- or 12-month follow-up, 61% were not frail at baseline. Transition to a worse frailty state occurred in 242 of 530 of patients (46%) between baseline and 3 months and in 179 of 445 of patients (40%) between baseline and 12 months. There were 376 patients with frailty, disability, or cognitive impairment at 3-month follow-up. Of these, 53 (14%) had frailty alone. At 12 months, 276 patients had frailty, disability, or cognitive impairment, 37 (13%) of whom had frailty alone.ConclusionsFrailty is common among survivors of critical illness. In the majority, frailty is newly acquired. Roughly one in seven had frailty without co-occurring disability or cognitive impairment. Studies to understand outcomes of frailty that develops as the result of a critical illness and to identify modifiable risk factors for this potentially reversible syndrome are needed.

Dataset Information

A prognostic model for 6-month mortality in elderly survivors of critical illness.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

A prognostic model for 6-month mortality in elderly survivors of critical illness.

Similar Datasets

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