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Predictive accuracy of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study index for mortality with HIV infection: a North American cross cohort analysis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:By supplementing an index composed of HIV biomarkers and age (restricted index) with measures of organ injury, the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) index more completely reflects risk of mortality. We compare the accuracy of the VACS and restricted indices (1) among subjects outside the Veterans Affairs Healthcare System, (2) more than 1-5 years of prior exposure to antiretroviral therapy (ART), and (3) within important patient subgroups. METHODS:We used data from 13 cohorts in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration (n = 10, 835) limiting analyses to HIV-infected subjects with at least 12 months exposure to ART. Variables included demographic, laboratory (CD4 count, HIV-1 RNA, hemoglobin, platelets, aspartate and alanine transaminase, creatinine, and hepatitis C status), and survival. We used C-statistics and net reclassification improvement (NRI) to test discrimination varying prior ART exposure from 1 to 5 years. We then combined Veterans Affairs Healthcare System (n = 5066) and North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration data, fit a parametric survival model, and compared predicted to observed mortality by cohort, gender, age, race, and HIV-1 RNA level. RESULTS:Mean follow-up was 3.3 years (655 deaths). Compared with the restricted index, the VACS index showed greater discrimination (C-statistics: 0.77 vs. 0.74; NRI: 12%; P < 0.0001). NRI was highest among those with HIV-1 RNA <500 copies per milliliter (25%) and age ?50 years (20%). Predictions were similar to observed mortality among all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS:VACS index scores discriminate risk and translate into accurate mortality estimates over 1-5 years of exposure to ART and for diverse patient subgroups from North American.

SUBMITTER: Justice AC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3619393 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictive accuracy of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study index for mortality with HIV infection: a North American cross cohort analysis.

Justice Amy C AC Modur Sharada P SP Tate Janet P JP Althoff Keri N KN Jacobson Lisa P LP Gebo Kelly A KA Kitahata Mari M MM Horberg Michael A MA Brooks John T JT Buchacz Kate K Rourke Sean B SB Rachlis Anita A Napravnik Sonia S Eron Joseph J Willig James H JH Moore Richard R Kirk Gregory D GD Bosch Ronald R Rodriguez Benigno B Hogg Robert S RS Thorne Jennifer J Goedert James J JJ Klein Marina M Gill John J Deeks Steven S Sterling Timothy R TR Anastos Kathryn K Gange Stephen J SJ

Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) 20130201 2

<h4>Background</h4>By supplementing an index composed of HIV biomarkers and age (restricted index) with measures of organ injury, the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) index more completely reflects risk of mortality. We compare the accuracy of the VACS and restricted indices (1) among subjects outside the Veterans Affairs Healthcare System, (2) more than 1-5 years of prior exposure to antiretroviral therapy (ART), and (3) within important patient subgroups.<h4>Methods</h4>We used data from 13 ...[more]

PMID: 23187941

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Project description:BackgroundElectronic health record (EHR) prediction models may be easier to use in busy clinical settings since EHR data can be auto-populated into models. This study assessed whether adding functional status and/or Medicare claims data (which are often not available in EHRs) improves the accuracy of a previously developed Veterans Affairs (VA) EHR-based mortality index.MethodsThis was a retrospective cohort study of veterans aged 75 years and older enrolled in VA primary care clinics followed from January 2014 to April 2020 (n = 62,014). We randomly split participants into development (n = 49,612) and validation (n = 12,402) cohorts. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. We performed logistic regression with backward stepwise selection to develop a 100-predictor base model using 854 EHR candidate variables, including demographics, laboratory values, medications, healthcare utilization, diagnosis codes, and vitals. We incorporated functional measures in a base + function model by adding activities of daily living (range 0-5) and instrumental activities of daily living (range 0-7) scores. Medicare data, including healthcare utilization (e.g., emergency department visits, hospitalizations) and diagnosis codes, were incorporated in a base + Medicare model. A base + function + Medicare model included all data elements. We assessed model performance with the c-statistic, reclassification metrics, fraction of new information provided, and calibration plots.ResultsIn the overall cohort, mean age was 82.6 years and 98.6% were male. At the end of follow-up, 30,263 participants (48.8%) had died. The base model c-statistic was 0.809 (95% CI 0.805-0.812) in the development cohort and 0.804 (95% CI 0.796-0.812) in the validation cohort. Validation cohort c-statistics for the base + function, base + Medicare, and base + function + Medicare models were 0.809 (95% CI 0.801-0.816), 0.811 (95% CI 0.803-0.818), and 0.814 (95% CI 0.807-0.822), respectively. Adding functional status and Medicare data resulted in similarly small improvements among other model performance measures. All models showed excellent calibration.ConclusionsIncorporation of functional status and Medicare data into a VA EHR-based mortality index led to small but likely clinically insignificant improvements in model performance.

Project description:ObjectivesThe contribution of depression to mortality in adults with and without HIV infection is unclear. We hypothesized that depression increases mortality risk and that this association is stronger among those with HIV infection.MethodsVeterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) data were analysed from the first clinic visit on or after 1 April 2003 (baseline) to 30 September 2015. Depression definitions were: (1) major depressive disorder defined using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes; (2) depressive symptoms defined as Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ)-9 scores ≥ 10. The outcome was all-cause mortality. Covariates were demographics, comorbid conditions and health behaviours.ResultsAmong 129 140 eligible participants, 30% had HIV infection, 16% had a major depressive disorder diagnosis, and 24% died over a median follow-up time of 11 years. The death rate was 25.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 25.0-25.6] deaths per 1000 person-years. Major depressive disorder was associated with mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.04; 95% CI 1.01, 1.07]. This association was modified by HIV status (interaction P-value = 0.02). In HIV-stratified analyses, depression was significantly associated with mortality among HIV-uninfected veterans but not among those with HIV infection. Among those with PHQ-9 data (n = 7372), 50% had HIV infection, 22% had PHQ-9 scores ≥ 10, and 28% died over a median follow-up time of 12 years. The death rate was 27.3 (95% CI 26.1-28.5) per 1000 person-years. Depressive symptoms were associated with mortality (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.04, 1.28). This association was modified by HIV status (interaction P-value = 0.05). In HIV-stratified analyses, depressive symptoms were significantly associated with mortality among veterans with HIV infection but not among those without HIV infection.ConclusionsDepression was associated with all-cause mortality. This association was modified by HIV status and method of depression ascertainment.

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Predictive accuracy of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study index for mortality with HIV infection: a North American cross cohort analysis.

Publications

Predictive accuracy of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study index for mortality with HIV infection: a North American cross cohort analysis.

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