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Modeling employer self-insurance decisions after the Affordable Care Act.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:To present a microsimulation model that addresses the methodological challenge of estimating the firm decision to self-insure. METHODOLOGY:The model considers the risk that the firm bears when self-insuring and the opportunity to mitigate that risk by purchasing stop-loss insurance. The model makes use of a structural, utility maximization framework to account for numerous aspects of the firm decision, and a multinomial probit to reproduce the elasticity of the firm's demand for health insurance. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS:Our simulations provide three important conclusions. First, they project significant increases in self-insurance rates among small firms--presumably induced by the desire to avoid ACA's rate-banding and risk adjustment regulations-only if generous stop-loss policies become widely available. Second, they show that this increase would be due to this hypothetical adoption of widespread, generous reinsurance by the market and not by passage of the ACA. Third, even with a substantial increase of self-insurance rates among small firms, they project negligible adverse selection in the exchanges, as indicated by our finding that the increase in exchange premium is less than 0.5% when assuming very generous stop-loss policies after implementation of the ACA.

SUBMITTER: Cordova A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3626325 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling employer self-insurance decisions after the Affordable Care Act.

Cordova Amado A Eibner Christine C Vardavas Raffaele R Broyles James J Girosi Federico F

Health services research 20130124 2 Pt 2

<h4>Objective</h4>To present a microsimulation model that addresses the methodological challenge of estimating the firm decision to self-insure.<h4>Methodology</h4>The model considers the risk that the firm bears when self-insuring and the opportunity to mitigate that risk by purchasing stop-loss insurance. The model makes use of a structural, utility maximization framework to account for numerous aspects of the firm decision, and a multinomial probit to reproduce the elasticity of the firm's de ...[more]

PMID: 23346976

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Nearly one quarter of trauma patients are uninsured and hospitals recoup less than 20% of inpatient costs for their care. This study examines changes to hospital reimbursement for inpatient trauma care if the full coverage expansion provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) were in effect. METHODS:We abstracted nonelderly adults (ages 18-64 years) admitted for trauma from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample during 2010-the last year before most major ACA coverage expansion policies. We calculated national and facility-level reimbursements and trauma-related contribution margins using Nationwide Inpatient Sample-supplied cost-to-charge ratios and published reimbursement rates for each payer type. Using US census data, we developed a probabilistic microsimulation model to determine the proportion of pre-ACA uninsured trauma patients that would be expected to gain private insurance, Medicaid, or remain uninsured after full implementation of the ACA. We then estimated the impact of these coverage changes on national and facility-level trauma reimbursement for this population. RESULTS:There were 145,849 patients (representing 737,852 patients nationwide) included. National inpatient trauma costs for patients aged 18 years to 64 years totaled US $14.8 billion (95% confidence interval [CI], 12.5,17.1). Preexpansion reimbursements totaled US $13.7 billion (95% CI, 10.8-14.7), yielding a national margin of -7.9% (95% CI, -10.6 to -5.1). Postexpansion projected reimbursements totaled US $15.0 billion (95% CI, 12.7-17.3), increasing the margin by 9.3 absolute percentage points to +1.4% (95% CI, -0.3 to +3.2). Of the 263 eligible facilities, 90 (34.2%) had a positive trauma-related contribution margin in 2010, which increased to 171 (65.0%) using postexpansion projections. Those facilities with the highest proportion of uninsured and racial/ethnic minorities experienced the greatest gains. CONCLUSION:Health insurance coverage expansion for uninsured trauma patients has the potential to increase national reimbursement for inpatient trauma care by over one billion dollars and nearly double the proportion of hospitals with a positive margin for trauma care. These data suggest that insurance coverage expansion has the potential to improve trauma centers' financial viability and their ability to provide care for their communities. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE:Economic analysis, level II.

Project description:ImportanceDental coverage for adults is a state option in Medicaid, and despite significant gains in coverage after the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), dental outcomes among adults in expansion states remain unexplored.ObjectiveTo explore the association of state coverage of dental benefits through Medicaid expansion with clinical dental outcomes.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study analyzed data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2009 to 2018. Included participants were low-income adults aged 19 to 64 years with income up to 138% of the federal poverty level. The study used a difference-in-differences analysis to compare changes from before to after ACA expansion in expansion states vs in control states. Changes were examined in the full sample and separately in states that did and did not provide Medicaid adult dental benefits. We defined a state as providing Medicaid adult dental benefits if it covered services beyond emergency dental benefits in 2014. Data were analyzed from November 2020 to March 2021.ExposuresMedicaid expansion under the ACA.Main outcomes and measuresRates of health coverage, having a dental visit, affordability of dental care in the past year, poor oral health, and teeth flossing were obtained from self-reported data. Mean number of missing teeth and prevalence of untreated decayed teeth, filled teeth, and functional dentition were obtained from clinical examination data.ResultsAmong 7637 low-income adults, the mean (SD) age was 37.8 (13.4) years and 4153 (weighted percentage, 54.5 %) were women. At baseline, 1732 low-income adults in nonexpansion states compared with 2520 low-income adults in expansion states were more likely, as shown by weighted percentage, to be Black (473 individuals [21.0%] vs 508 individuals [15.1%]) and US born (1281 individuals [76.7%] vs 1613 individuals [69.6%]). In the full sample, Medicaid expansion, compared with nonexpansion, was associated with an increased rate of seeing a dentist in the prior year (12.4 percentage points; 95% CI 4.6 to 20.2 percentage points; P = .003). In expansion states that provided dental benefits, compared with nonexpansion states that provided dental benefits, the expansion was associated with increases in rates of Medicaid coverage (8.2 percentage points; 95%CI 0.5 to 15.8 percentage points; P = .04) and having seen a dentist in the previous year (11.4 percentage points, 95% CI, 3.7 to 19.1 percentage points; P = .006) and decreases in the uninsured rate (-12.6 percentage points, 95% CI -18.9 to -6.4 percentage points; P < .001) and prevalence of untreated decayed teeth (-16.8 percentage points; 95% CI, -25.5 to -8.0 percentage points; P = .001). In states without Medicaid dental benefits, the expansion was associated with an increase in the mean number of missing teeth (1.3 teeth; 95% CI 0.1 to 2.5 percentage points; P = .04) and a decrease in the prevalence of functional dentition (-8.7 percentage points; 95% CI, -14.1 to -3.3 percentage points; P = .003) compared with nonexpansion states.Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that the combination of Medicaid expansion and coverage of Medicaid dental benefits was associated with improved oral health among low-income adults.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough all 11- or 12-year-olds in the US were recommended to receive a 3-dose series of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine within a 12-month period prior to 2016, rates of completion of the HPV vaccine series remained suboptimal. The effects of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), including private insurance coverage with no cost-sharing and health insurance expansions, on HPV vaccine completion are largely unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between the ACA's 2010 provisions and 2014 insurance expansions with HPV vaccine completion by sex and health insurance type.MethodsUsing 2009-2015 public and private health insurance claims from Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts, we identified 9-to-26-year-olds who had at least one HPV vaccine dose. We conducted a logistic regression model to examine the associations between the ACA policy changes with HPV vaccine completion (defined as receiving a 3-dose series within 12 months from the date of initiation) as well as interactions by sex and health insurance type.ResultsOver the study period, among females and males who initiated the HPV vaccine, 27.6 and 28.0%, respectively, completed the series within 12 months. Among females, the 2010 ACA provision was associated with a 4.3 percentage point increases in HPV vaccine completion for the privately-insured (0.043; 95% CI: 0.036-0.061) and a 5.7 percentage point increase for Medicaid enrollees (0.057; 95% CI: 0.032-0.081). The 2014 health insurance expansions were associated with a 9.4 percentage point increase in vaccine completion for females with private insurance (0.094; 95% CI: 0.082-0.107) and a 8.5 percentage point increase for Medicaid enrollees (0.085; 95% CI: 0.068-0.102). Among males, the 2014 ACA reforms were associated with a 5.1 percentage point increase in HPV vaccine completion for the privately-insured (0.051; 95% CI: 0.039-0.063) and a 3.4 percentage point increase for Medicaid enrollees (0.034; 95% CI: 0.017-0.050). In a sensitivity analysis, findings were similar with HPV vaccine completion within 18 months.ConclusionsDespite low HPV vaccine completion overall, both sets of ACA provisions were associated with increases in completion among females and males. Our results suggest that expanding Medicaid across the remaining states could increase HPV vaccine completion among publicly-insured youth and prevent HPV-related cancers.

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Modeling employer self-insurance decisions after the Affordable Care Act.

Publications

Modeling employer self-insurance decisions after the Affordable Care Act.

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