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Is delayed graft function causally associated with long-term outcomes after kidney transplantation? Instrumental variable analysis.

ABSTRACT: Although some studies have found an association between delayed graft function (DGF) after kidney transplantation and worse long-term outcomes, a causal relationship remains controversial. We investigated this relationship using an instrumental variables model (IVM), a quasi-randomization technique for drawing causal inferences.We identified 80,690 adult, deceased-donor, kidney-only transplant recipients from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients between 1997 and 2010. We used cold ischemia time (CIT) as an instrument to test the hypothesis that DGF causes death-censored graft failure and mortality at 1 and 5 years after transplantation, controlling for an array of characteristics known to affect patient and graft survival. We compared our IVM results with a multivariable linear probability model.DGF occurred in 27% of our sample. Graft failure rates at 1 and 5 years were 6% and 22%, respectively, and 1-year and 5-year mortality rates were 5% and 20%, respectively. In the linear probability model, DGF was associated with increased risk of both graft failure and mortality at 1 and 5 years (P<0.001). In the IVM, we found evidence suggesting a causal relationship between DGF and death-censored graft failure at both 1 year (13.5% increase; P<0.001) and 5 years (16.2% increase; P<0.001) and between DGF and mortality at both 1 year (7.1% increase; P<0.001) and 5 years (11.0% increase; P<0.01). Results were robust to exclusion of lower quality as well as pumped kidneys and use of a creatinine-based definition for DGF.Instrumental variables analysis supports a causal relationship between DGF and both graft failure and mortality.

SUBMITTER: Butala NM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3629374 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Is delayed graft function causally associated with long-term outcomes after kidney transplantation? Instrumental variable analysis.

Butala Neel M NM Reese Peter P PP Doshi Mona D MD Parikh Chirag R CR

Transplantation 20130401 8

<h4>Background</h4>Although some studies have found an association between delayed graft function (DGF) after kidney transplantation and worse long-term outcomes, a causal relationship remains controversial. We investigated this relationship using an instrumental variables model (IVM), a quasi-randomization technique for drawing causal inferences.<h4>Methods</h4>We identified 80,690 adult, deceased-donor, kidney-only transplant recipients from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients bet ...[more]

PMID: 23591726

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Project description:BackgroundDonor-characteristics and donor characteristics-based decision algorithms are being progressively used in the decision process whether or not to accept an available donor kidney graft for transplantation. While this may improve outcomes, the performance characteristics of the algorithms remains moderate. To estimate the impact of donor factors of grafts accepted for transplantation on transplant outcomes, and to test whether implementation of donor-characteristics-based algorithms in clinical decision-making is justified, we applied an instrumental variable analysis to outcomes for kidney donor pairs transplanted in different individuals.MethodsThis analysis used (dis)congruent outcomes of kidney donor pairs as an instrument and was based on national transplantation registry data for all donor kidney pairs transplanted in separate individuals in the Netherlands (1990-2018, 2,845 donor pairs), and the United Kingdom (UK, 2000-2018, 11,450 pairs). Incident early graft loss (EGL) was used as the primary discriminatory factor. It was reasoned that a scenario with a dominant impact of donor variables on transplantation outcomes would result in high concordance of EGL in both recipients, whilst dominance of asymmetrical outcomes could indicate a more complex scenario, involving an interaction of donor, procedural and recipient factors.FindingsIncidences of congruent EGL (Netherlands: 1·2%, UK: 0·7%) were slightly lower than the arithmetical (stochastic) incidences, suggesting that once a graft has been accepted for transplantation, donor factors minimally contribute to incident EGL. A long-term impact of donor factors was explored by comparing outcomes for functional grafts from donor pairs with asymmetrical vs. symmetrical outcomes. Recipient survival was similar for both groups, but a slightly compromised graft survival was observed for grafts with asymmetrical outcomes in the UK cohort: (10-years Hazard Ratio for graft loss: 1·18 [1·03-1·35] p<0·018); and 5 years eGFR (48·6 [48·3-49·0] vs. 46·0 [44·5-47·6] ml/min in the symmetrical outcome group, p<0·001).InterpretationOur results suggest that donor factors for kidney grafts deemed acceptable for transplantation impact minimally on transplantation outcomes. A strong reliance on donor factors and/or donor-characteristics-based decision algorithms could result in unjustified rejection of grafts. Future efforts to optimize transplant outcomes should focus on a better understanding of the recipient factors underlying transplant outcomes.FundingNone.

Dataset Information

Is delayed graft function causally associated with long-term outcomes after kidney transplantation? Instrumental variable analysis.

Publications

Is delayed graft function causally associated with long-term outcomes after kidney transplantation? Instrumental variable analysis.

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