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Policy implications of adjusting randomized trial data for economic evaluations: a demonstration from the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study.

ABSTRACT: Although the randomized controlled trial (RCT) is widely considered the most reliable method for evaluation of health care interventions, challenges to both internal and external validity exist. Thus, the efficacy of an intervention in a trial setting does not necessarily represent the real-world performance that decision makers seek to inform comparative effectiveness studies and economic evaluations.Using data from the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study (ALTS), we performed a simplified economic evaluation of age-based management strategies to detect cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) among women who were referred to the study with low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL). We used data from the trial itself to adjust for 1) potential lead time bias and random error that led to variation in the observed prevalence of CIN3 by study arm and 2) potential ascertainment bias among providers in the most aggressive management arm.We found that using unadjusted RCT data may result in counterintuitive cost-effectiveness results when random error and/or bias are present. Following adjustment, the rank order of management strategies changed for 2 of the 3 age groups we considered.Decision analysts need to examine study design, available trial data, and cost-effectiveness results closely in order to detect evidence of potential bias. Adjustment for random error and bias in RCTs may yield different policy conclusions relative to unadjusted trial data.

SUBMITTER: Campos NG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3647223 | biostudies-literature | 2012 May-Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Policy implications of adjusting randomized trial data for economic evaluations: a demonstration from the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study.

Campos Nicole G NG Castle Philip E PE Schiffman Mark M Kim Jane J JJ

Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making 20111206 3

<h4>Background</h4>Although the randomized controlled trial (RCT) is widely considered the most reliable method for evaluation of health care interventions, challenges to both internal and external validity exist. Thus, the efficacy of an intervention in a trial setting does not necessarily represent the real-world performance that decision makers seek to inform comparative effectiveness studies and economic evaluations.<h4>Methods</h4>Using data from the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study (ALTS), we perfo ...[more]

PMID: 22147881

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Project description:Anogenital cancers are associated with ∼13 carcinogenic human papilloma virus (HPV) types in a broader group that cause cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). Multiple concurrent cervical HPV infections are common, which complicates the attribution of HPV types to different grades of CIN. Here we report the analysis of HPV genotype patterns in the atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance-low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion triage study with the use of unsupervised hierarchical clustering. Women who underwent colposcopy at baseline (n = 2,780) were grouped into 20 disease categories based on histology and cytology. Disease groups and HPV genotypes were clustered with the use of complete linkage. Risk of 2-year cumulative CIN3+, viral load, colposcopic impression, and age were compared between disease groups and major clusters. Hierarchical clustering yielded four major disease clusters: cluster 1 included all CIN3 histology with abnormal cytology; cluster 2 included CIN3 histology with normal cytology and combinations with either CIN2 or high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion cytology; cluster 3 included older women with normal or low-grade histology/cytology and low viral load; and cluster 4 included younger women with low-grade histology/cytology, multiple infections, and the highest viral load. Three major groups of HPV genotypes were identified: group 1 included only HPV16; group 2 included nine carcinogenic types, plus noncarcinogenic HPV53 and HPV66; and group 3 included noncarcinogenic types, plus carcinogenic HPV33 and HPV45. Clustering results suggested that colposcopy missed a prevalent precancer in many women with no biopsy/normal histology and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion. This result was confirmed by an elevated 2-year risk of CIN3+ in these groups. Our novel approach to study multiple genotype infections in cervical disease with the use of unsupervised hierarchical clustering can address complex genotype distributions on a population level.

Project description:High oncogenic risk human papillomaviruses (HR-HPVs) promote cervical carcinoma development, the fourth most common feminine cancer. A slow oncodevelopmental phase-defined histopathologically as Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia (CIN) grades 1-3, or cytologically as Low- or High-grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesions (LSIL or HSIL)-precedes the malignancy. Cervical carcinoma screenings through HR-HPV genotyping and Pap smears are regularly performed in Western countries. Faulty cytology screening or genotyping or patients' non-compliance with follow-ups can let slip an oncoprogression diagnosis. Novel biomarker tests flanking HR-HPV genotyping and cytology could objectively predict the risk of disease progression thus helping triage LSIL/ASCUS patients. Here, anonymized leftovers of fresh cervical epithelium scrapings from twice (LSIL/ASCUS and HR-HPV DNA)-positive and twice (Pap smear- and HR-HPV DNA)-negative (control) patients in a proteome-preserving solution served to assess the biomarker worth of three cervical carcinoma-related proteins, i.e., B-MYB (or MYBL2), Cancerous Inhibitor of PP2A (CIP-2a), and transketolase-like1 (TKTL1). Leftovers anonymity was strictly kept and storage at -80°C, protein extraction, immunoblotting, and band densitometry were blindly performed. Only after tests completion, the anonymous yet code-corresponding HR-HPV-genotyping and cytology data allowed to assign each sample to the twice-positive or twice-negative group. Descriptive statistics showed that the three proteins levels significantly increased in the twice-positive vs. twice-negative scrapings. Diagnostic ROC curve analysis identified each protein's Optimal Decision Threshold (OTD) showing that TKTL1 and CIP-2a are stronger risk predictive biomarkers (Sensitivity, 0.91-0.93; Specificity, 0.77-0.83) than B-MYB. Logistic Regression coupled with Likelihood-Ratio Tests confirmed that a highly significant relation links increasing TKTL1/CIP-2a/B-MYB protein levels in twice-positive cervical scrapings to the risk of HR-HPV-driven oncoprogression. Finally, a 3 year clinical follow-up showed that 13 patients (50% of total) of the twice-positive group with biomarker values over OTDs compliantly underwent scheduled colposcopy and biopsy. Of these, 11 (i.e., 84.7%) received a positive histological diagnosis, i.e., CIN1 (n = 5; 38.5%) or CIN2/CIN2+ (n = 6; 46,2%). Therefore, TKTL1/CIP-2a/B-MYB protein levels could objectively predict oncoprogression risk in twice (HR-HPV- and Pap smear)-positive women. Further studies will assess the translatability of these findings into clinical settings.

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Policy implications of adjusting randomized trial data for economic evaluations: a demonstration from the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study.

Publications

Policy implications of adjusting randomized trial data for economic evaluations: a demonstration from the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study.

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