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Predicting traffic-related air pollution in Los Angeles using a distance decay regression selection strategy.

ABSTRACT: Land use regression (LUR) has emerged as an effective means of estimating exposure to air pollution in epidemiological studies. We created the first LUR models of nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOX) for the complex megalopolis of Los Angeles (LA), California. Two-hundred and one sampling sites (the largest sampling design to date for LUR estimation) for two seasons were selected using a location-allocation algorithm that maximized the potential variability in measured pollutant concentrations and represented populations in the health study. Traffic volumes, truck routes and road networks, land use data, satellite-derived vegetation greenness and soil brightness, and truck route slope gradients were used for predicting NOX concentrations. A novel model selection strategy known as "ADDRESS" (A Distance Decay REgression Selection Strategy) was used to select optimized buffer distances for potential predictor variables and maximize model performance. Final regression models explained 81%, 86% and 85% of the variance in measured NO, NO2 and NOX concentrations, respectively. Cross-validation analyses suggested a prediction accuracy of 87-91%. Remote sensing-derived variables were significantly correlated with NOX concentrations, suggesting these data are useful surrogates for modeling traffic-related pollution when certain land use data are unavailable. Our study also demonstrated that reactive pollutants such as NO and NO2 could have high spatial extents of influence (e.g., > 5000 m from expressway) and high background concentrations in certain geographic areas. This paper represents the first attempt to model traffic-related air pollutants at a fine scale within such a complex and large urban region.

SUBMITTER: Su JG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3656661 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting traffic-related air pollution in Los Angeles using a distance decay regression selection strategy.

Su Jason G JG Jerrett Michael M Beckerman Bernardo B Wilhelm Michelle M Ghosh Jo Kay JK Ritz Beate B

Environmental research 20090621 6

Land use regression (LUR) has emerged as an effective means of estimating exposure to air pollution in epidemiological studies. We created the first LUR models of nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOX) for the complex megalopolis of Los Angeles (LA), California. Two-hundred and one sampling sites (the largest sampling design to date for LUR estimation) for two seasons were selected using a location-allocation algorithm that maximized the potential variability in meas ...[more]

PMID: 19540476

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Project description:BackgroundNumerous studies have associated air pollutant exposures with adverse birth outcomes, but there is still relatively little information to attribute effects to specific emission sources or air toxics. We used three exposure data sources to examine risks of preterm birth in Los Angeles women when exposed to high levels of traffic-related air pollutants--including specific toxics--during pregnancy.MethodsWe identified births during 6/1/04-3/31/06 to women residing within five miles of a Southern California Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) Multiple Air Toxics Exposure Study (MATES III) monitoring station. We identified preterm cases and, using a risk set approach, matched cases to controls based on gestational age at birth. Pregnancy period exposure averages were estimated for a number of air toxics including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), source-specific PM2.5 (fine particulates with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 ?m) based on a Chemical Mass Balance model, criteria air pollutants based on government monitoring data, and land use regression (LUR) estimates of nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Associations between these metrics and odds of preterm birth were estimated using conditional logistic regression.ResultsOdds of preterm birth increased 6-21% per inter-quartile range increase in entire pregnancy exposures to organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), benzene, and diesel, biomass burning and ammonium nitrate PM2.5, and 30% per inter-quartile increase in PAHs; these pollutants were positively correlated and clustered together in a factor analysis. Associations with LUR exposure metrics were weaker (3-4% per inter-quartile range increase).ConclusionsThese latest analyses provide additional evidence of traffic-related air pollution's impact on preterm birth for women living in Southern California and indicate PAHs as a pollutant of concern that should be a focus of future studies. Other PAH sources besides traffic were also associated with higher odds of preterm birth, as was ammonium nitrate PM2.5, the latter suggesting potential importance of secondary pollutants. Future studies should focus on accurate modeling of both local and regional spatial and temporal distributions, and incorporation of source information.

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Predicting traffic-related air pollution in Los Angeles using a distance decay regression selection strategy.

Publications

Predicting traffic-related air pollution in Los Angeles using a distance decay regression selection strategy.

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