Dataset Information

Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

ABSTRACT: Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C) are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation priorities in many different regions.

SUBMITTER: Moyle PB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3661749 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

Moyle Peter B PB Kiernan Joseph D JD Crain Patrick K PK Quiñones Rebecca M RM

PloS one 20130522 5

Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of e ...[more]

PMID: 23717503

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Project description:Many parts of Asia, including Taiwan, have suffered severely from freshwater fish invasions. However, few studies using an assemblage approach have been conducted in the region so far that would help to prioritize suitable preventive actions. In this study, we focused on the invasion process from the import stage to the establishment stage, and defined establishment success as the success during this predefined process. We used datasets of freshwater fish assemblages in Taiwan to (1) compare established versus non-established alien species to distinguish the determinants of establishment success, and (2) to use these determinants to test a life history hypothesis which predicts that the magnitudes of the determinants should be significantly different between established alien species and native species. We collated a dataset for freshwater fish species which were imported into Taiwan (n = 118) of which some successfully established (n = 26), and another dataset for freshwater fish species native to Taiwan (n = 77). For each imported species, we collected data for 17 variables, including two phylogenetic, two human-use, two invasion history, and 11 life history variables. We then used decision tree methods, which have advantages in analyzing datasets with many variables of mixed types without the need to make assumptions about data distributions and input data for missing values. Our results showed that aquaculture use and maximum body length were the most important determinants for predicting establishment success of alien freshwater fish in Taiwan. Comparing five important determinants between established alien versus native species showed that the established alien species were significantly more often used in aquaculture, were associated with a higher number of established countries, and had a larger body length and greater highest water temperature tolerance than the native species. We thus conclude that our results provided evidence to support our stated hypothesis. We suggest that aquaculture use, measures of body size, and the number of previously invaded countries may alert researchers and conservation managers to species with a high establishment potential, especially for countries with similar conditions as those in Taiwan.

Project description:The study examines the potential influence of sub-regional variations in climate, and specifically heavy rain events, in determining relative vulnerabilities of locations in twelve Caribbean countries. An aggregate vulnerability index, referred to as the Caribbean Vulnerability Score (CVS), is created using historical demographic and socioeconomic data and climate data representing extreme rain events. Four scenarios are explored. Firstly, comparative vulnerabilities are determined when heavy rainfall is incorporated in CVS versus when it is excluded. The impact of climate change is also investigated using future climate data derived from statistical downscaling but holding demographic and socioeconomic sub-indices constant. The analysis is repeated with projections of future demographic structure from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway data (SSP3), future climate projections and constant socioeconomic. Finally, the sensitivity of the results is examined with respect to applying different weights i.e. versus using equal weights for the climate and non-climatic components of CVS as is done for the first three scenarios. Results suggest that the inclusion of historical susceptibility to rainfall extremes influences relative vulnerabilities within the Caribbean when compared to the rankings of vulnerability derived using only socioeconomic and demographic inputs. In some cases significant increases in relative rankings are noted. Projected changes in the intensity of rain events across the Caribbean region in the 2030s and 2050s, do not significantly alter the top and lowest ranked vulnerable locations when demographic and socioeconomic indices are held constant. Changes may however occur in the order of the top ranked locations dependent on scenario and time slice. In general, future shifts in relative vulnerabilities were found to be dependent on (i) changes in both future climate and demographic scenarios, (ii) the time horizons being considered, and (iii) the weighting assigned to climate in the future.

Dataset Information

Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

Publications

Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

Similar Datasets

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