Dataset Information

Early prediction of treatment resistance in low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia using population kinetic modelling of hCG measurements.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) patients, a predictive marker for early identification of methotrexate (MTX) resistance would be useful. We previously demonstrated that kinetic modelling of human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) measurements could provide such a marker. Here we validate this approach in a large independent patient cohort.

Methods

Serum hCG measurements of 800 low-risk GTN patients treated with MTX were analysed. The cohort was divided into Model and Test data sets. hCG kinetics were described from initial treatment day to day 50 using: '(hCG(time))=hCG0*exp(-k*time)+hCGres', where hCGres is the modelled residual production, hCG0 is the baseline hCG level, and k is the rate constant. HCGres-predictive value was investigated against previously reported predictors of MTX resistance.

Results

Declining hCG measurements were well fitted by the model. The best discriminator of MTX resistance in the Model data set was hCGres, categorised by an optimal cut-off value of >20.44 IU l(-1): receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC)=0.87; Se=0.91; Sp=0.83. The predictive value of hCGres was reproducible using the Test data set: ROC AUC=0.87; Se=0.88; Sp=0.86. Multivariate analyses revealed hCGres as a better predictor of MTX resistance (HR=1.01, P<0.0001) and MTX failure-free survival (HR=13.25, P<0.0001) than other reported predictive factors.

Conclusion

hCGres, a modelled kinetic parameter calculated after fully dosed three MTX cycles, has a reproducible value for identifying patients with MTX resistance.

SUBMITTER: You B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3664307 | biostudies-literature | 2013 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Early prediction of treatment resistance in low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia using population kinetic modelling of hCG measurements.

You B B Harvey R R Henin E E Mitchell H H Golfier F F Savage P M PM Tod M M Wilbaux M M Freyer G G Seckl M J MJ

British journal of cancer 20130416 9

<h4>Background</h4>In low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) patients, a predictive marker for early identification of methotrexate (MTX) resistance would be useful. We previously demonstrated that kinetic modelling of human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) measurements could provide such a marker. Here we validate this approach in a large independent patient cohort.<h4>Methods</h4>Serum hCG measurements of 800 low-risk GTN patients treated with MTX were analysed. The cohort was divided ...[more]

PMID: 23591194

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Project description:This is an update of a Cochrane review that was first published in Issue 1, 2009. Gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) is a rare but curable disease arising in the fetal chorion during pregnancy. Most women with low-risk GTN will be cured by evacuation of the uterus with or without single-agent chemotherapy. However, chemotherapy regimens vary between treatment centres worldwide and the comparable benefits and risks of these different regimens are unclear.To determine the efficacy and safety of first-line chemotherapy in the treatment of low-risk GTN.In September 2008, we electronically searched the Cochrane Gynaecological Cancer Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL Issue 3, 2008), MEDLINE and EMBASE. In addition, we searched online trial registers, conference proceedings and reference lists of identified studies. We re-ran these searches in February 2012 for this updated review.For the original review, we included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCTs and non-RCTs that compared first-line chemotherapy for the treatment of low-risk GTN. For this updated version of the review, we included only RCTs.Two review authors independently assessed studies for inclusion and extracted data to a pre-designed data extraction form. Meta-analysis was performed by pooling the risk ratio (RR) of individual trials.We included five moderate to high quality RCTs (517 women) in the updated review. These studies all compared methotrexate with dactinomycin. Three studies compared weekly intramuscular (IM) methotrexate with bi-weekly pulsed intravenous (IV) dactinomycin (393 women), one study compared five-day IM methotrexate with bi-weekly pulsed IV dactinomycin (75 women) and one study compared eight-day IM methotrexate-folinic acid (MTX-FA) with five-day IV dactinomycin (49 women).Overall, dactinomycin was associated with significantly higher rates of primary cure than methotrexate (five studies, 513 women; RR 0.64, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.54 to 0.76). Methotrexate was associated with significantly more treatment failure than dactinomycin (five studies, 513 women; RR 3.81, 95% CI 1.64 to 8.86). We consider this evidence to be of a moderate quality.There was no significant difference between the two groups with respect to nausea (four studies, 466 women; RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.29 to 1.26) or any of the other individual side-effects reported, although data for all of these outcomes were insufficient and too heterogeneous to be conclusive. No severe adverse effects (SAEs) occurred in either group in three out of the five included studies and there was no significant difference in SAEs between the groups overall (five studies, 515 women; RR 0.35, 95% CI 0.08 to 1.66; I² = 60%), however, there was a trend towards fewer SAEs in the methotrexate group. We considered this evidence to be of a low quality due to substantial heterogeneity and low consistency in the occurrence/reporting of SAEs between trials.Dactinomycin is more likely to achieve a primary cure in women with low-risk GTN, and less likely to result in treatment failure, compared with methotrexate. There is limited evidence relating to side-effects, however, the pulsed dactinomycin regimen does not appear to be associated with significantly more side-effects than the low-dose methotrexate regimen and therefore should compare favourably to the five- and eight-day methotrexate regimens in this regard.We consider pulsed dactinomycin to have a better cure rate than, and a side-effect profile at least equivalent to, methotrexate when used for first-line treatment of low-risk GTN. Data from a large ongoing trial of pulsed dactinomycin compared with five- and eight-day methotrexate regimens is likely to have an important impact on our confidence in these findings.

Project description:BackgroundGestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) is a highly curable group of pregnancy-related tumours; however, approximately 25% of GTN tumours will be resistant to, or will relapse after, initial chemotherapy. These resistant and relapsed lesions will require salvage chemotherapy with or without surgery. Various salvage regimens are used worldwide. It is unclear which regimens are the most effective and the least toxic.ObjectivesTo determine which chemotherapy regimen/s for the treatment of resistant or relapsed GTN is/are the most effective and the least toxic.Search methodsWe searched the Cochrane Gynaecological Cancer Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, Issue 4), MEDLINE and EMBASE up to October 2011. In addition, we handsearched the relevant society conference proceedings and study reference lists. For the updated review, we searched Cochrane Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE and EMBASE to 16 Novemeber 2015. In addition, we searched online clinical trial registries for ongoing trials.Selection criteriaOnly randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included.Data collection and analysisWe designed a data extraction form and planned to use random-effects methods in Review Manager 5.1 for meta-analyses.Main resultsThe search identified no RCTs; therefore we were unable to perform any meta-analyses.Authors' conclusionsRCTs in GTN are scarce owing to the low prevalence of this disease and its highly chemosensitive nature. As chemotherapeutic agents may be associated with substantial side effects, the ideal treatment should achieve maximum efficacy with minimal side effects. For methotrexate-resistant or recurrent low-risk GTN, a common practice is to use sequential five-day dactinomycin, followed by MAC (methotrexate, dactinomycin, cyclophosphamide) or EMA/CO (etoposide, methotrexate, dactinomycin, cyclophosphamide, vinblastine) if further salvage therapy is required. However, five-day dactinomycin is associated with more side effects than pulsed dactinomycin, therefore an RCT comparing the relative efficacy and safety of these two regimens in the context of failed primary methotrexate treatment is desirable.For high-risk GTN, EMA/CO is the most commonly used first-line therapy, with platinum-etoposide combinations, particularly EMA/EP (etoposide, methotrexate, dactinomycin/etoposide, cisplatin), being favoured as salvage therapy. Alternatives, including TP/TE (paclitaxel, cisplatin/ paclitaxel, etoposide), BEP (bleomycin, etoposide, cisplatin), FAEV (floxuridine, dactinomycin, etoposide, vincristine) and FA (5-fluorouracil (5-FU), dactinomycin), may be as effective as EMA/EP and associated with fewer side effects; however, this is not clear from the available evidence and needs testing in well-designed RCTs. In the UK, an RCT comparing interventions for resistant/recurrent GTN will be very challenging owing to the small numbers of patients with this scenario. International multicentre collaboration is therefore needed to provide the high-quality evidence required to determine which salvage regimen/s have the best effectiveness-to-toxicity ratio in low- and high-risk disease. Future research should include economic evaluations and long-term surveillance for secondary neoplasms.

Project description:BackgroundHydatidiform mole (HM), also called a molar pregnancy, is characterised by an overgrowth of foetal chorionic tissue within the uterus. HMs may be partial (PM) or complete (CM) depending on their gross appearance, histopathology and karyotype. PMs usually have a triploid karyotype, derived from maternal and paternal origins, whereas CMs are diploid and have paternal origins only. Most women with HM can be cured by evacuation of retained products of conception (ERPC) and their fertility preserved. However, in some women the growth persists and develops into gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN), a malignant form of the disease that requires treatment with chemotherapy. CMs have a higher rate of malignant transformation than PMs. It may be possible to reduce the risk of GTN in women with HM by administering prophylactic chemotherapy (P-Chem). However, P-Chem given before or after evacuation of HM to prevent malignant sequelae remains controversial, as the risks and benefits of this practice are unclear.ObjectivesTo systematically review the evidence for the effectiveness and safety of P-Chem to prevent GTN in women with a molar pregnancy.Search methodsWe performed electronic searches in the Cochrane Gynaecological Cancer Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, Issue 2, 2012), MEDLINE (1946 to February week 4, 2012) and EMBASE (1980 to week 9, 2012). The search strategy was developed using free text and medical subject headings (MESH). We handsearched reference lists of relevant literature to identify additional studies.Selection criteriaWe included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of P-Chem for HM.Data collection and analysisTwo review authors independently assessed studies for inclusion in the review and extracted data using a specifically designed data collection form. Meta-analyses were performed by pooling data from individual trials using RevMan 5.1 software.Main resultsWe included three RCTs with a combined total of 613 participants. One study compared prophylactic dactinomycin to no prophylaxis (60 participants); the other two studies compared prophylactic methotrexate to no prophylaxis (420 and 133 participants). All participants were diagnosed with CMs. We considered the latter two studies to be of poor methodological quality.P-Chem reduced the risk of GTN occurring in women following a CM (3 studies, 550 participants; RR 0.37; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.24 to 0.57; I(2) = 0%; P < 0.00001), However, owing to the poor quality of two of the included studies, we performed sensitivity analyses excluding these two studies. This left only one small study of high-risk women to contribute data for this primary outcome (59 participants; RR 0.28; 95% CI 0.10 to 0.73; P = 0.01), therefore we consider this evidence to be of a low quality.The time to diagnosis was longer in the P-Chem group than the control group (2 studies, 33 participants; mean difference (MD) 28.72; 95% CI 13.19 to 44.24; P = 0.0003) and the P-Chem group required more courses to cure subsequent GTN (1 poor-quality study, 14 participants; MD 1.10; 95% CI 0.52 to 1.68; P = 0.0002). We consider this evidence to be of a low to very low quality for similar reasons to those listed above.There were insufficient data to perform meta-analyses for toxicity, overall survival, drug resistance and reproductive outcomes.Authors' conclusionsP-Chem may reduce the risk of progression to GTN in women with CMs who are at a high risk of malignant transformation; however, current evidence in favour of P-Chem is limited by the poor methodological quality and small size of the included studies. As P-Chem may increase drug resistance, delay treatment of GTN and expose women unnecessarily to toxic side effects, this practice cannot currently be recommended.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Little data exists predicting the resistance to actinomycin D (Act-D) single-agent for gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN). The objective was to determine the overall success of pulse Act-D and the factors predictive of resistance to pulse Act-D in the treatment of low-risk, non-choriocarcinoma post-molar GTN. METHODS:From January 2013 to October 2016, according to the FIGO criteria for the diagnosis of post-molar disease and the FIGO risk-factor scoring system for GTN, a total of 135 patients with post-molar non-choriocarcinoma GTN who were chemotherapy-naive with a FIGO score < 7 were treated with single-agent pulse Act-D as a first-line regimen, in Peking Union Medical College Hospital. The pulse Act-D regimen is defined as 1.25 mg/m2 (max 2 mg) IV push every other week. All patients were followed until May 2017. Epidemiological and clinical data were compared between patients with remission and resistance to Act-D to determine predictive factors by univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS:Ninety-six of 135 patients (71.1%) achieved complete remission after first-line chemotherapy of pulse Act-D. In multivariate analysis, existing invasive uterine lesions observed by pre-chemotherapy transvaginal ultrasound (odds ratio [OR] 7.5, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 2.7-20.8), FIGO score ≥ 5 (OR 15.2, 95% CI 1.5-156.1) and pre-chemotherapy levels of β-hCG ≥ 4000 IU/L (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.2-8.3) were independent high-risk factors predicting resistance to pulse Act-D as single-agent chemotherapy. During follow-up, no relapse, treatment-associated serious adverse events, or death occurred. CONCLUSIONS:As first-line chemotherapy, pulse Act-D was effective and tolerable for patients with low-risk post-molar non-choriocarcinoma. Existing invasive uterine lesions observed by pre-chemotherapy transvaginal ultrasound, a FIGO score ≥ 5, and pre-chemotherapy levels of β-hCG ≥ 4000 IU/L were independent factors for resistance to pulse Act-D.

Dataset Information

Early prediction of treatment resistance in low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia using population kinetic modelling of hCG measurements.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Early prediction of treatment resistance in low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia using population kinetic modelling of hCG measurements.

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