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Timing of preemptive vascular access placement: do we understand the natural history of advanced CKD?: an observational study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Little is known about the targets and expectations of practicing nephrologists with regard to timing of preemptive AV access surgery and how these relate to actual observed practice patterns in clinical care.

Methods

We administered a 8-question survey to assess nephrologists' expectations for preemptive vascular access placement to 53 practicing nephrologists in California. We performed a retrospective chart review of 116 patients who underwent preemptive vascular access placement at a large academic medical center and examined progression to ESRD.

Results

According to our survey of nephrologists, most aimed to have preemptive vascular access created about 6 months prior to start of ESRD or when the chances of ESRD within the next year is two-thirds or greater. The estimated GFR level at which they believe match these conditions is approximately 18 ml/min/1.73 m2. Among the 116 patients with CKD who underwent preemptive vascular access creation, the mean estimated GFR at the time of access creation was 16.1 (6.8) ml/min/1.73 m2. Only 57 out of the 116 patients (49.1%) patients initiated maintenance HD within 1 year after surgery.

Conclusions

In our study, most nephrologists aim for preemptive vascular access surgery approximately 6 months prior to the start of HD. However in fact, only approximately 50% of patients who underwent preemptive vascular access surgery started HD within 1 year. Better tools are needed to predict the natural history of advanced CKD.

SUBMITTER: Bansal N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3671964 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundPrevious observational studies examining outcomes associated with the timing of dialysis therapy initiation in the United States have often been limited by lead time and survivor bias.Study designRetrospective cohort study comparing the effectiveness of early versus later (conventional) dialysis therapy initiation in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). The analysis used inverse probability weighting to account for an individual's contribution to different exposure groups over time in a pooled logistic regression model. Patients contributed risk to both exposure categories (early and later initiation) until there was a clear treatment strategy (ie, dialysis therapy was initiated early or estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] decreased to <10mL/min/1.73m(2)).Setting & participantsPatients with CKD who had at least one face-to-face outpatient encounter with a Cleveland Clinic health care provider as of January 1, 2005, and at least 3 eGFRs in the range of 20-30mL/min/1.73m(2) measured at least 180 days apart.PredictorsTiming of dialysis therapy initiation as determined using model-based interpolation of eGFR trajectories over time. Timing was defined as early (interpolated eGFR at dialysis therapy initiation≥10mL/min/1.73m(2)) or later (eGFR < 10mL/min/1.73m(2)) and was time-varying.OutcomesDeath from any cause occurring from the time that eGFR was equal to 20mL/min/1.73m(2) through September 15, 2009.ResultsThe study population consisted of 652 patients meeting inclusion criteria. Most (71.3%) of the study population did not initiate dialysis therapy during follow-up. Patients who did not initiate dialysis therapy (n=465) were older, more likely to be white, and had more favorable laboratory profiles than those who started dialysis therapy. Overall, 146 initiated dialysis early and 80 had eGFRs decrease to <10mL/min/1.73m(2). Many participants (n=426) were censored prior to attaining a clear treatment strategy and were considered undeclared. There was no statistically significant survival difference for the early compared with later initiation strategy (OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.65-1.11).LimitationsInterpolated eGFR, moderate sample size, and likely unmeasured confounders.ConclusionsIn patients with advanced CKD, timing of dialysis therapy initiation was not associated with mortality when accounting for lead time bias and survivor bias.