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Expert prior elicitation and Bayesian analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I.

ABSTRACT: To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I (MUTT I) using expert opinion as a prior belief.MUTT I was a randomized clinical trial comparing topical natamycin or voriconazole for treating filamentous fungal keratitis. A questionnaire elicited expert opinion on the best treatment of fungal keratitis before MUTT I results were available. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the questionnaire data as a prior belief and the MUTT I primary outcome (3-month visual acuity) by frequentist analysis as a likelihood.Corneal experts had a 41.1% prior belief that natamycin improved 3-month visual acuity compared with voriconazole. The Bayesian analysis found a 98.4% belief for natamycin treatment compared with voriconazole treatment for filamentous cases as a group (mean improvement 1.1 Snellen lines, 95% credible interval 0.1-2.1). The Bayesian analysis estimated a smaller treatment effect than the MUTT I frequentist analysis result of 1.8-line improvement with natamycin versus voriconazole (95% confidence interval 0.5-3.0, P = 0.006). For Fusarium cases, the posterior demonstrated a 99.7% belief for natamycin treatment, whereas non-Fusarium cases had a 57.3% belief.The Bayesian analysis suggests that natamycin is superior to voriconazole when filamentous cases are analyzed as a group. Subgroup analysis of Fusarium cases found improvement with natamycin compared with voriconazole, whereas there was almost no difference between treatments for non-Fusarium cases. These results were consistent with, though smaller in effect size than, the MUTT I primary outcome by frequentist analysis. The accordance between analyses further validates the trial results. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00996736.).

SUBMITTER: Sun CQ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3684218 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Expert prior elicitation and Bayesian analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I.

Sun Catherine Q CQ Prajna N Venkatesh NV Krishnan Tiruvengada T Mascarenhas Jeena J Rajaraman Revathi R Srinivasan Muthiah M Raghavan Anita A O'Brien Kieran S KS Ray Kathryn J KJ McLeod Stephen D SD Porco Travis C TC Acharya Nisha R NR Lietman Thomas M TM

Investigative ophthalmology & visual science 20130614 6

<h4>Purpose</h4>To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I (MUTT I) using expert opinion as a prior belief.<h4>Methods</h4>MUTT I was a randomized clinical trial comparing topical natamycin or voriconazole for treating filamentous fungal keratitis. A questionnaire elicited expert opinion on the best treatment of fungal keratitis before MUTT I results were available. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the questionnaire data as a prior belief and the MUTT I primary ...[more]

PMID: 23702779

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:To compare topical natamycin vs voriconazole in the treatment of filamentous fungal keratitis. METHODS:This phase 3, double-masked, multicenter trial was designed to randomize 368 patients to voriconazole (1%) or natamycin (5%), applied topically every hour while awake until reepithelialization, then 4 times daily for at least 3 weeks. Eligibility included smear-positive filamentous fungal ulcer and visual acuity of 20/40 to 20/400. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:The primary outcome was best spectacle-corrected visual acuity at 3 months; secondary outcomes included corneal perforation and/or therapeutic penetrating keratoplasty. RESULTS:A total of 940 patients were screened and 323 were enrolled. Causative organisms included Fusarium (128 patients [40%]), Aspergillus (54 patients [17%]), and other filamentous fungi (141 patients [43%]). Natamycintreated cases had significantly better 3-month best spectacle-corrected visual acuity than voriconazole-treated cases (regression coefficient=0.18 logMAR; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.05; P=.006). Natamycin-treated cases were less likely to have perforation or require therapeutic penetrating keratoplasty (odds ratio=0.42; 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.80; P=.009). Fusarium cases fared better with natamycin than with voriconazole (regression coefficient=0.41 logMAR; 95% CI,0.61 to 0.20; P<.001; odds ratio for perforation=0.06; 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.28; P<.001), while non-Fusarium cases fared similarly (regression coefficient=0.02 logMAR; 95% CI, 0.17 to 0.13; P=.81; odds ratio for perforation=1.08; 95% CI, 0.48 to 2.43; P=.86). CONCLUSIONS:Natamycin treatment was associated with significantly better clinical and microbiological outcomes than voriconazole treatment for smear-positive filamentous fungal keratitis, with much of the difference attributable to improved results in Fusarium cases. APPLICATION TO CLINICAL PRACTICE:Voriconazole should not be used as monotherapy in filamentous keratitis. TRIAL REGISTRATION:clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00996736

Project description:ImportanceFusarium keratitis is common and often results in poor outcomes. No new treatments since natamycin have become available.ObjectiveTo explore the role of adjuvant oral voriconazole on clinical outcomes in Fusarium keratitis.Design, setting, and participantsIn this prespecified subgroup analysis of a multicenter, double-masked, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial, 240 patients from the Aravind Eye Care System in India, the Lumbini Eye Hospital and Bharatpur Eye Hospital in Nepal, and the University of California, San Francisco, who had culture-positive fungal ulcer and baseline visual acuity of 20/400 or worse were randomized to receive oral voriconazole vs placebo. Enrollment started May 24, 2010, and the last patient study visit was November 23, 2015. All patients received topical voriconazole, 1%, and after the results of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial (MUTT) II became available, topical natamycin, 5%, was added for all patients. Data analysis was performed from September 2 to October 28, 2016.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome of the trial was the rate of corneal perforation or the need for therapeutic penetrating keratoplasty. Secondary outcomes included rate of reepithelialization, best spectacle-corrected visual acuity, and infiltrate or scar size at 3 months.ResultsOf the 240 study participants, 72 (30.4%) were culture positive for Fusarium species (41 [56.9%] male and 31 [43.1%] female; median [interquartile range] age, 50 [45-57] years). Of these, 33 (45.8%) were randomized to oral voriconazole and 39 (54.2%) to placebo. Fusarium ulcers randomized to oral voriconazole had a 0.43-fold decreased hazard of perforation or therapeutic penetrating keratoplasty compared with placebo after controlling for baseline infiltrate depth (95% CI, 0.22-fold to 0.84-fold; P = .01). Multiple linear regression revealed a 1.89-mm decreased infiltrate and/or scar size at 3 weeks (95% CI, -2.69 to -1.09 mm; P < .001) and a 0.83-mm decreased infiltrate and/or scar size at 3 months after correcting for baseline values (95% CI, -1.33 to -0.32 mm; P = .001) in eyes randomized to oral voriconazole vs placebo. Eyes treated with oral voriconazole also had a mean 0.29 decreased logMAR (improved) (Snellen equivalent 20/40) visual acuity at 3 months after controlling for baseline visual acuity, although this finding was not statistically significant (95% CI, -0.57 to 0.002; P = .052).Conclusions and relevanceAlthough MUTT II could not find a benefit for all corneal ulcers, Fusarium keratitis may benefit from the addition of oral voriconazole to topical natamycin, and physicians should consider prescribing oral voriconazole in these cases.Trial registrationclinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00996736.

Project description:ImportanceGiven the limitations in health care resources, quality-of-life measures for interventions have gained importance.ObjectiveTo determine whether vision-related quality-of-life outcomes were different between the natamycin and voriconazole treatment arms in the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I, as measured by an Indian Vision Function Questionnaire.Design, setting, and participantsSecondary analysis (performed October 11-25, 2014) of a double-masked, multicenter, randomized, active comparator-controlled, clinical trial at multiple locations of the Aravind Eye Care System in South India that enrolled patients with culture- or smear-positive filamentous fungal corneal ulcers who had a baseline visual acuity of 20/40 to 20/400 (logMAR of 0.3-1.3).InterventionsStudy participants were randomly assigned to topical voriconazole, 1%, or topical natamycin, 5%.Main outcomes and measuresSubscale score on the Indian Vision Function Questionnaire from each of the 4 subscales (mobility, activity limitation, psychosocial impact, and visual function) at 3 months.ResultsA total of 323 patients were enrolled in the trial, and 292 (90.4%) completed the Indian Vision Function Questionnaire at 3 months. The majority of study participants had subscale scores consistent with excellent function. After adjusting for baseline visual acuity and organism, we found that study participants in the natamycin-treated group scored, on average, 4.3 points (95% CI, 0.1-8.5) higher than study participants in the voriconazole-treated group (P = .046). In subgroup analyses looking at ulcers caused by Fusarium species and adjusting for baseline best spectacle-corrected visual acuity, the natamycin-treated group scored 8.4 points (95% CI, 1.9-14.9) higher than the voriconazole-treated group (P = .01). Differences in quality of life were not detected for patients with Aspergillus or other non-Fusarium species as the causative organism (1.5 points [95% CI, -3.9 to 6.9]; P = .52).Conclusions and relevanceWe found evidence of improvement in vision-related quality of life among patients with fungal ulcers who were randomly assigned to natamycin compared with those randomly assigned to voriconazole, and especially among patients with Fusarium species as the causative organism. Incorporation of quality-of-life measures in clinical trials is important to fully evaluate the effect of the studied interventions.Trial registrationclinicaltrials.gov Identifier:NCT00996736.

Project description:To compare oral voriconazole with placebo in addition to topical antifungals in the treatment of filamentous fungal keratitis.The Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial II (MUTT II), a multicenter, double-masked, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial, was conducted in India and Nepal, with 2133 individuals screened for inclusion. Patients with smear-positive filamentous fungal ulcers and visual acuity of 20/400 (logMAR 1.3) or worse were randomized to receive oral voriconazole vs oral placebo; all participants received topical antifungal eyedrops. The study was conducted from May 24, 2010, to November 23, 2015. All trial end points were analyzed on an intent-to-treat basis.Study participants were randomized to receive oral voriconazole vs oral placebo; a voriconazole loading dose of 400 mg was administered twice daily for 24 hours, followed by a maintenance dose of 200 mg twice daily for 20 days, with dosing altered to weight based during the trial. All participants received topical voriconazole, 1%, and natamycin, 5%.The primary outcome of the trial was rate of corneal perforation or the need for therapeutic penetrating keratoplasty (TPK) within 3 months. Secondary outcomes included microbiologic cure at 6 days, rate of re-epithelialization, best-corrected visual acuity and infiltrate and/or scar size at 3 weeks and 3 months, and complication rates associated with voriconazole use.A total of 2133 patients in India and Nepal with smear-positive ulcers were screened; of the 787 who were eligible, 240 (30.5%) were enrolled. Of the 119 patients (49.6%) in the oral voriconazole treatment group, 65 were male (54.6%), and the median age was 54 years (interquartile range, 42-62 years). Overall, no difference in the rate of corneal perforation or the need for TPK was determined for oral voriconazole vs placebo (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.57-1.18; P?=?.29). In prespecified subgroup analyses comparing treatment effects among organism subgroups, there was some suggestion that Fusarium species might have a decreased rate of perforation or TPK in the oral voriconazole-treated arm; however, this was not a statistically significant finding after Holms-Šidák correction for multiple comparisons (effect coefficient, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26-0.92; P?=?.03). Patients receiving oral voriconazole experienced a total of 58 adverse events (48.7%) compared with 28 adverse events (23.1%) in the placebo group (P?<?.001 after Holms-Šidák correction for multiple comparisons).There appears to be no benefit to adding oral voriconazole to topical antifungal agents in the treatment of severe filamentous fungal ulcers. All patients in this study were enrolled in India and Nepal; therefore, it is possible that organisms in this region may exhibit characteristics different from those in other regions of the world.clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00996736.

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Expert prior elicitation and Bayesian analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I.

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Expert prior elicitation and Bayesian analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I.

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