Dataset Information

Detection of cancer before distant metastasis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To establish a distant metastasis (DM) cells must disseminate from the primary tumor and overcome a series of obstacles, the metastatic cascade. In this study we develop a mathematical model for this cascade to estimate the tumor size and the circulating tumor cell (CTC) load before the first metastasis has formed from a primary breast cancer tumor.

Methods

The metastatic cascade is described in discrete steps: 1. local tumor growth; 2. dissemination into circulation; 3. survival in circulation; 4. extravasation into tissue; and 5. growth into a metastasis. The model was built using data and relationships described in the literature to predict the relationship between tumor size and probability of distant metastasis for 38715 patients with surgically removed TXNXM0 primary breast cancer from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. The model was calibrated using primary tumor size, probability of distant metastasis and time to distant metastasis for 1489 patients with stage T1BNXM0 (25% of total patients with T1BNXM0). Validation of the model was done with data for all patients.

Results

From the time to distant metastasis of these 38715 breast cancer patients, we determined a tumor doubling time of 1.7?±?0.9 months. Fitting the data for 25% of T1B patients estimates a metastatic efficiency of 1 metastasis formed per 60 million disseminated tumor cells. Validation of the model to data of patients in all T-stages shows good agreement between model and epidemiological data. To reduce the 5-year risk of distant metastasis for TXNXM0 from 9.2% to 1.0%, the primary tumor needs to be detected and removed before it reaches a diameter of 2.7?±?1.6 mm. At this size, the model predicts that there will be 9?±?6 CTC/L blood.

Conclusions

To reduce the rate of distant metastasis in surgically treated TXNXM0 breast cancer to 1%, imaging technology will need to be able to detect lesions of 2.7 mm in diameter or smaller. Before CTC detection can be applied in the early disease setting, sensitivity will need to be improved by at least 15-fold and combined with technology that minimizes false positives.

SUBMITTER: Coumans FA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3684526 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Detection of cancer before distant metastasis.

Coumans Frank A W FA Siesling Sabine S Terstappen Leon W M M LW

BMC cancer 20130613

<h4>Background</h4>To establish a distant metastasis (DM) cells must disseminate from the primary tumor and overcome a series of obstacles, the metastatic cascade. In this study we develop a mathematical model for this cascade to estimate the tumor size and the circulating tumor cell (CTC) load before the first metastasis has formed from a primary breast cancer tumor.<h4>Methods</h4>The metastatic cascade is described in discrete steps: 1. local tumor growth; 2. dissemination into circulation; 3 ...[more]

PMID: 23763955

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Project description:ObjectivesTo estimate the long term risk of distant metastases (DM) for women with initial diagnoses of non-metastatic breast cancer; to estimate breast cancer-specific and overall survival for women with DM.DesignPopulation-based health record linkage study.Setting, participantsWomen diagnosed with localised or regional primary breast cancer recorded in the NSW Cancer Registry, 2001-2002.Major outcome measuresTime from breast cancer diagnosis to first DM, time from first DM to death from breast cancer.Secondary outcometime to death from any cause.Results6338 women were diagnosed with non-metastatic breast cancer (localised, 3885; regional, 2453; median age, 59 years [IQR, 49-69 years]). DM were recorded (to 30 September 2016) for 1432 women (23%; median age, 62 years [IQR, 51-73 years]). The 14-year cumulative DM incidence was 22.2% (95% CI, 21.1-23.2%; localised disease: 14.3% [95% CI, 13.2-15.4%]; regional disease: 34.7% [95% CI, 32.8-36.6%]). Annual hazard of DM was highest during the second year after breast cancer diagnosis (localised disease: 2.8%; 95% CI, 2.3-3.3%; regional disease: 9.1%; 95% CI, 7.8-10.3%); from year five it was about 1% for those with localised disease, from year seven about 2% for women with regional disease at diagnosis. Five years after diagnosis, the 5-year conditional probability of DM was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.7-5.1%) for women with localised and 10.4% (95% CI, 9.1-12.0%) for those with regional disease at diagnosis. Median breast cancer-specific survival from first DM record date was 28 months (95% CI, 25-31 months); the annual hazard of breast cancer death after the first DM record declined from 36% (95% CI, 33-40%) during the first year to 14% (95% CI, 11-18%) during the fourth year since detection.ConclusionsDM risk declines with time from diagnosis of non-metastatic breast cancer, and the annual risk of dying from breast cancer declines with time from initial DM detection. These findings can be used to inform patients at follow-up about changes in risk over time since diagnosis and for planning health services.

Dataset Information

Detection of cancer before distant metastasis.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Detection of cancer before distant metastasis.

Similar Datasets

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