Dataset Information

Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider.

ABSTRACT: Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1) demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900-2007; and 2) impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years) on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2-3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918) and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995). In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers can promote boom years for recruitment.

SUBMITTER: Jonsson JE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3689676 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider.

Jónsson Jón Einar JE Gardarsson Arnthor A Gill Jennifer A JA Pétursdóttir Una Krístín UK Petersen Aevar A Gunnarsson Tómas Grétar TG

PloS one 20130621 6

Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females ...[more]

PMID: 23805292

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Project description:Wildlife observation is a popular activity, and sightings of rare or difficult-to-find animals are often highly desired. However, predicting the sighting probabilities of these animals is a challenge for many observers, and it may only be possible by limited experts with intimate knowledge and skills. To tackle this difficulty, we developed user-friendly forecast systems of the daily observation probabilities of a rare Arctic seabird (Ross's Gull Rhodostethia rosea) in a coastal area in northern Japan. Using a dataset gathered during 16 successive winters, we applied a machine learning technique of self-organizing maps and explored how days with gull sightings were related to the meteorological pressure patterns over the Sea of Okhotsk (Method A). We also built a regression model that explains the relationship between gull sightings and local-scale environmental factors (Method B). We then applied these methods with the operational global numerical weather prediction model (a computer simulation application about the fluid dynamics of Earth's atmosphere) to forecast the daily observation probabilities of our target. Method A demonstrated a strong dependence of gull sightings on the 16 representative weather patterns and forecasted stepwise observation probabilities ranging from 0% to 85.7%. Method B also showed that the strength of the northerly wind and the advancement of the season explained gull sightings and forecasted continuous observation probabilities ranging from 0% to 95.5%. Applying these two methods with the operational global numerical weather prediction model successfully forecasted the varied observation probabilities of Ross's Gull from 1 to 5 days ahead from November to February. A 2-year follow-up observation also validated both forecast systems to be effective for successful observation, especially when both systems forecasted higher observation probabilities. The developed forecast systems would therefore allow cost-effective animal observation and may facilitate a better experience for a variety of wildlife observers.

Dataset Information

Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider.

Publications

Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider.

Similar Datasets

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