Dataset Information

Forecasting supply and demand in nursing professions: impacts of occupational flexibility and employment structure in Germany.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In light of Germany's ageing society, demand for nursing professionals is expected to increase in the coming years. This will pose a challenge for policy makers to increase the supply of nursing professionals.

Methodology

To portray the different possible developments in the supply of nursing professionals, we projected the supply of formally trained nurses and the potential supply of persons who are able to work in a nursing profession. This potential supply of nursing professionals was calculated on the basis of empirical information on occupational mobility provided by the German Microcensus 2005 (Labour Force Survey). We also calculated how the supply of full-time equivalents (FTEs) will develop if current employment structures develop in the direction of employment behaviour in nursing professions in eastern and western Germany. We then compared these different supply scenarios with two demand projections ('status quo' and 'compression of morbidity' scenarios) from Germany's Federal Statistical Office.

Results

Our results show that, even as early as 2005, meeting demand for FTEs in nursing professions was not arithmetically possible when only persons with formal qualification in a nursing profession were taken into account on the supply side. When additional semi-skilled nursing professionals are included in the calculation, a shortage of labour in nursing professions can be expected in 2018 when the employment structure for all nursing professionals remains the same as the employment structure seen in Germany in 2005 (demand: 'status quo scenario'). Furthermore, given an employment structure as in eastern Germany, where more nursing professionals work on a full-time basis with longer working hours, a theoretical shortage of nursing professionals could be delayed until 2024.

Conclusions

Our analysis of occupational flexibility in the nursing field indicates that additional potential supply could be generated by especially training more young people for a nursing profession as they tend to stay in their initial occupation. Furthermore, the number of FTEs in nursing professions could be increased by promoting more full-time contracts in Western Germany. Additionally, employment contracts for just a small number of weekly working hours (marginal employment) cannot be considered an adequate instrument for keeping formally trained nursing professionals employed in the nursing field.

SUBMITTER: Maier T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3693609 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Forecasting supply and demand in nursing professions: impacts of occupational flexibility and employment structure in Germany.

Maier Tobias T Afentakis Anja A

Human resources for health 20130605

<h4>Background</h4>In light of Germany's ageing society, demand for nursing professionals is expected to increase in the coming years. This will pose a challenge for policy makers to increase the supply of nursing professionals.<h4>Methodology</h4>To portray the different possible developments in the supply of nursing professionals, we projected the supply of formally trained nurses and the potential supply of persons who are able to work in a nursing profession. This potential supply of nursing ...[more]

PMID: 23734939

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Project description:BackgroundThe health workforce (HWF) is critical in developing responsive health systems to address population health needs and respond to health emergencies, but defective planning have arguably resulted in underinvestment in health professions education and decent employment. Primary Health Care (PHC) has been the anchor of Ghana's health system. As Ghana's population increases and the disease burden doubles, it is imperative to estimate the potential supply and need for health professionals; and the level of investment in health professions education and employment that will be necessary to avert any mismatches.MethodsUsing a need-based health workforce planning framework, we triangulated data from multiple sources and systematically applied a previously published Microsoft® Excel-based model to conduct a fifteen-year projection of the HWF supply, needs, gaps and training requirements in the context of primary health care in Ghana.ResultsThe projections show that based on the population (size and demographics), disease burden, the package of health services and the professional standards for delivering those services, Ghana needed about 221,593 health professionals across eleven categories in primary health care in 2020. At a rate of change between 3.2% and 10.7% (average: 5.5%) per annum, the aggregate need for health professionals is likely to reach 495,273 by 2035. By comparison, the current (2020) stock is estimated to grow from 148,390 to about 333,770 by 2035 at an average growth rate of 5.6%. The health professional's stock is projected to meet 67% of the need but with huge supply imbalances. Specifically, the supply of six out of the 11 health professionals (~54.5%) cannot meet even 50% of the needs by 2035, but Midwives could potentially be overproduced by 32% in 2030.ConclusionFuture health workforce strategy should endeavour to increase the intake of Pharmacy Technicians by more than seven-fold; General Practitioners by 110%; Registered general Nurses by 55% whilst Midwives scaled down by 15%. About US$ 480.39 million investment is required in health professions education to correct the need versus supply mismatches. By 2035, US$ 2.374 billion must be planned for the employment of those that would have to be trained to fill the need-based shortages and for sustaining the employment of those currently available.

Dataset Information

Forecasting supply and demand in nursing professions: impacts of occupational flexibility and employment structure in Germany.

Background

Methodology

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Forecasting supply and demand in nursing professions: impacts of occupational flexibility and employment structure in Germany.

Similar Datasets

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