Dataset Information

Modelling the impact of specific food policy options on coronary heart disease and stroke deaths in Ireland.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To estimate the potential reduction in cardiovascular (CVD) mortality possible by decreasing salt, trans fat and saturated fat consumption, and by increasing fruit and vegetable (F/V) consumption in Irish adults aged 25-84 years for 2010.

Design

Modelling study using the validated IMPACT Food Policy Model across two scenarios. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken. First, a conservative scenario: reductions in dietary salt by 1 g/day, trans fat by 0.5% of energy intake, saturated fat by 1% energy intake and increasing F/V intake by 1 portion/day. Second, a more substantial but politically feasible scenario: reductions in dietary salt by 3 g/day, trans fat by 1% of energy intake, saturated fat by 3% of energy intake and increasing F/V intake by 3 portions/day.

Setting

Republic of Ireland.

Outcomes

Coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke deaths prevented.

Results

The small, conservative changes in food policy could result in approximately 395 fewer cardiovascular deaths per year; approximately 190 (minimum 155, maximum 230) fewer CHD deaths in men, 50 (minimum 40, maximum 60) fewer CHD deaths in women, 95 (minimum 75, maximum 115) fewer stroke deaths in men, and 60 (minimum 45, maximum 70) fewer stroke deaths in women. Approximately 28%, 22%, 23% and 26% of the 395 fewer deaths could be attributable to decreased consumptions in trans fat, saturated fat, dietary salt and to increased F/V consumption, respectively. The 395 fewer deaths represent an overall 10% reduction in CVD mortality. Modelling the more substantial but feasible food policy options, we estimated that CVD mortality could be reduced by up to 1070 deaths/year, representing an overall 26% decline in CVD mortality.

Conclusions

A considerable CVD burden is attributable to the excess consumption of saturated fat, trans fat, salt and insufficient fruit and vegetables. There are significant opportunities for Government and industry to reduce CVD mortality through effective, evidence-based food policies.

SUBMITTER: O'Keeffe C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3703570 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Modelling the impact of specific food policy options on coronary heart disease and stroke deaths in Ireland.

O'Keeffe Celine C Kabir Zubair Z O'Flaherty Martin M Walton Janette J Capewell Simon S Perry Ivan J IJ

BMJ open 20130703 7

<h4>Objective</h4>To estimate the potential reduction in cardiovascular (CVD) mortality possible by decreasing salt, trans fat and saturated fat consumption, and by increasing fruit and vegetable (F/V) consumption in Irish adults aged 25-84 years for 2010.<h4>Design</h4>Modelling study using the validated IMPACT Food Policy Model across two scenarios. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken. First, a conservative scenario: reductions in dietary salt by 1 g/day, trans fat by 0.5% of energy intake, sa ...[more]

PMID: 23824313

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Project description:Recent, dramatic increases in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in China can be mostly explained by adverse changes in major cardiovascular risk factors. Our study aimed to assess the potential impact of subsequent changes in risk factors and population ageing on CHD deaths in Beijing between 1999 and 2010.The previously validated IMPACT model was used to estimate the CHD deaths expected in 2010, with treatment uptakes being held constant at levels measured in 1999, comparing three scenarios: a) taking into account the ageing of the population but assuming no further changes in major risk factor levels from 1999 or, b) if recent risk factor trends continued until 2010 or, c) if there was a 0.5% annual reduction in each risk factor.Population ageing alone would result in approximately 1990 additional deaths in 2010 compared with 1999, representing an increase of 27%. Continuation of current risk factor trends would result in approximately 3,015 extra deaths in 2010, [a 40% increase]; three quarters of this increase would be attributable to rises in total cholesterol levels. Thus, demographic changes and worsening risk factors would together result in a 67% increase in CHD deaths. Conversely, assumed 0.5% annual reductions in risk factors (a mean population level decline of 0.3 mmol/L for total cholesterol in both genders, and smoking prevalence declining by 3.0% for men and 4.1% for women, body mass index by 1.3 kg/m2 for men and 1.4 kg/m2 for women, diabetes prevalence by 0.4% in both genders, and diastolic blood pressure by 4.7 mmHg for men and 4.4 mmHg for women) would result in some 3,730 fewer deaths, representing a 23% decrease overall. These findings remained consistent in sensitivity analyses.CHD death rates are continuing to rise in Beijing. This reflects worsening risk factor levels, compounded by demographic trends. However, the adverse impact of population ageing on CHD burden could be completely offset by eminently feasible improvements in diet and smoking.

Dataset Information

Modelling the impact of specific food policy options on coronary heart disease and stroke deaths in Ireland.

Objective

Design

Setting

Outcomes

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Modelling the impact of specific food policy options on coronary heart disease and stroke deaths in Ireland.

Similar Datasets

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