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Prediction of complex human traits using the genomic best linear unbiased predictor.

ABSTRACT: Despite important advances from Genome Wide Association Studies (GWAS), for most complex human traits and diseases, a sizable proportion of genetic variance remains unexplained and prediction accuracy (PA) is usually low. Evidence suggests that PA can be improved using Whole-Genome Regression (WGR) models where phenotypes are regressed on hundreds of thousands of variants simultaneously. The Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (G-BLUP, a ridge-regression type method) is a commonly used WGR method and has shown good predictive performance when applied to plant and animal breeding populations. However, breeding and human populations differ greatly in a number of factors that can affect the predictive performance of G-BLUP. Using theory, simulations, and real data analysis, we study the performance of G-BLUP when applied to data from related and unrelated human subjects. Under perfect linkage disequilibrium (LD) between markers and QTL, the prediction R-squared (R(2)) of G-BLUP reaches trait-heritability, asymptotically. However, under imperfect LD between markers and QTL, prediction R(2) based on G-BLUP has a much lower upper bound. We show that the minimum decrease in prediction accuracy caused by imperfect LD between markers and QTL is given by (1-b)(2), where b is the regression of marker-derived genomic relationships on those realized at causal loci. For pairs of related individuals, due to within-family disequilibrium, the patterns of realized genomic similarity are similar across the genome; therefore b is close to one inducing small decrease in R(2). However, with distantly related individuals b reaches very low values imposing a very low upper bound on prediction R(2). Our simulations suggest that for the analysis of data from unrelated individuals, the asymptotic upper bound on R(2) may be of the order of 20% of the trait heritability. We show how PA can be enhanced with use of variable selection or differential shrinkage of estimates of marker effects.

SUBMITTER: de Los Campos G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3708840 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of complex human traits using the genomic best linear unbiased predictor.

de Los Campos Gustavo G Vazquez Ana I AI Fernando Rohan R Klimentidis Yann C YC Sorensen Daniel D

PLoS genetics 20130711 7

Despite important advances from Genome Wide Association Studies (GWAS), for most complex human traits and diseases, a sizable proportion of genetic variance remains unexplained and prediction accuracy (PA) is usually low. Evidence suggests that PA can be improved using Whole-Genome Regression (WGR) models where phenotypes are regressed on hundreds of thousands of variants simultaneously. The Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (G-BLUP, a ridge-regression type method) is a commonly used WGR m ...[more]

PMID: 23874214

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Project description:BackgroundRecently, there has been a growing interest in the genetic improvement of body measurement traits in farm animals. They are widely used as predictors of performance, longevity, and production traits, and it is worthwhile to investigate the prediction accuracies of genomic selection for these traits. In genomic prediction, the single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (ssGBLUP) method allows the inclusion of information from genotyped and non-genotyped relatives in the analysis. Hence, we aimed to compare the prediction accuracy obtained from a pedigree-based BLUP only on genotyped animals (PBLUP-G), a traditional pedigree-based BLUP (PBLUP), a genomic BLUP (GBLUP), and a single-step genomic BLUP (ssGBLUP) method for the following 10 body measurement traits at yearling age of Hanwoo cattle: body height (BH), body length (BL), chest depth (CD), chest girth (CG), chest width (CW), hip height (HH), hip width (HW), rump length (RL), rump width (RW), and thurl width (TW). The data set comprised 13,067 phenotypic records for body measurement traits and 1523 genotyped animals with 34,460 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. The accuracy for each trait and model was estimated only for genotyped animals using five-fold cross-validations.ResultsThe accuracies ranged from 0.02 to 0.19, 0.22 to 0.42, 0.21 to 0.44, and from 0.36 to 0.55 as assessed using the PBLUP-G, PBLUP, GBLUP, and ssGBLUP methods, respectively. The average predictive accuracies across traits were 0.13 for PBLUP-G, 0.34 for PBLUP, 0.33 for GBLUP, and 0.45 for ssGBLUP methods. Our results demonstrated that averaged across all traits, ssGBLUP outperformed PBLUP and GBLUP by 33 and 43%, respectively, in terms of prediction accuracy. Moreover, the least root of mean square error was obtained by ssGBLUP method.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that considering the ssGBLUP model may be a promising way to ensure acceptable accuracy of predictions for body measurement traits, especially for improving the prediction accuracy of selection candidates in ongoing Hanwoo breeding programs.

Project description:Genomic best linear-unbiased prediction (GBLUP) assumes equal variance for all marker effects, which is suitable for traits that conform to the infinitesimal model. For traits controlled by major genes, Bayesian methods with shrinkage priors or genome-wide association study (GWAS) methods can be used to identify causal variants effectively. The information from Bayesian/GWAS methods can be used to construct the weighted genomic relationship matrix (G). However, it remains unclear which methods perform best for traits varying in genetic architecture. Therefore, we developed several methods to optimize the performance of weighted GBLUP and compare them with other available methods using simulated and real data sets. First, two types of methods (marker effects with local shrinkage or normal prior) were used to obtain test statistics and estimates for each marker effect. Second, three weighted G matrices were constructed based on the marker information from the first step: (1) the genomic-feature-weighted G, (2) the estimated marker-variance-weighted G, and (3) the absolute value of the estimated marker-effect-weighted G. Following the above process, six different weighted GBLUP methods (local shrinkage/normal-prior GF/EV/AEWGBLUP) were proposed for genomic prediction. Analyses with both simulated and real data demonstrated that these options offer flexibility for optimizing the weighted GBLUP for traits with a broad spectrum of genetic architectures. The advantage of weighting methods over GBLUP in terms of accuracy was trait dependant, ranging from 14.8% to marginal for simulated traits and from 44% to marginal for real traits. Local-shrinkage prior EVWGBLUP is superior for traits mainly controlled by loci of a large effect. Normal-prior AEWGBLUP performs well for traits mainly controlled by loci of moderate effect. For traits controlled by some loci with large effects (explain 25-50% genetic variance) and a range of loci with small effects, GFWGBLUP has advantages. In conclusion, the optimal weighted GBLUP method for genomic selection should take both the genetic architecture and number of QTLs of traits into consideration carefully.

Project description:Across the majority livestock species, routinely collected genomic and pedigree information has been incorporated into evaluations using single-step methods. As a result, strategies that reduce genotyping costs without reducing the response to selection are important as they could have substantial economic impacts on breeding programs. Therefore, the objective of the current study was to investigate the impact of selectively genotyping selection candidates on the selection response using simulation. Populations were simulated to mimic the genome and population structure of a swine and cattle population undergoing selection on an index comprised of the estimated breeding values (EBV) for 2 genetically correlated quantitative traits. Ten generations were generated and genotyping began generation 7. Two phenotyping scenarios were simulated that assumed the first trait was recorded early in life on all individuals and the second trait was recorded on all versus a random subset of the individuals. The EBV were generated from a bivariate animal model. Multiple genotyping scenarios were generated that ranged from not genotyping any selection candidates, a proportion of the selection candidates based on either their index value or chosen at random, and genotyping all selection candidates. An interim index value was utilized to decide who to genotype for the selective genotype strategy. The interim value assumed only the first trait was observed and the only genotypic information available was on animals in previous generations. Within each genotyping scenario 25 replicates were generated. Within each genotyping scenario the mean response per generation and the degree to which EBV were inflated/deflated was calculated. Across both species and phenotyping strategies, the plateau of diminishing returns was observed when 60% of the selection candidates with the largest index values were genotyped. When randomly genotyping selection candidates, either 80 or 100% of the selection candidates needed to be genotyped for there not to be a reduction in the index response. Across both populations, no differences in the degree that EBV were inflated/deflated for either trait 1 or 2 were observed between nongenotyped and genotyped animals. The current study has shown that animals can be selectively genotyped in order to optimize the response to selection as a function of the cost to conduct a breeding program using single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:Genomic selection (GS) is becoming popular in animals' genetic development. We, therefore, investigated the single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (ssGBLUP) as tool for GS, and compared its efficacy with the traditional pedigree BLUP (pedBLUP) method. METHODS:A total of 9,952 males born between 1997 and 2018 under Hanwoo proven-bull selection program was studied. We analyzed body weight at 12 months and carcass weight (kg), backfat thickness, eye muscle area, and marbling score traits. About 7,387 bulls were genotyped using Illumina 50K BeadChip Arrays. Multiple-trait animal model analyses were performed using BLUPF90 software programs. Breeding value accuracy was calculated using two. METHODS:i) Pearson's correlation of genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) with EBV of all animals (rM1) and ii) correlation using inverse of coefficient matrix from the mixed-model equations (rM2). Then, we compared these accuracies by overall population, info-type (PHEN, phenotyped-only; GEN, genotyped-only; and PH+GEN, phenotyped and genotyped), and bull-types (YBULL, young male calves; CBULL, young candidate bulls; and PBULL, proven bulls). RESULTS:The rM1 estimates in the study were between 0.90 and 0.96 among five traits. The rM1 estimates varied slightly by population and info-type, but noticeably by bull-type for traits. Generally average rM2 estimates were much smaller than rM1 (pedBLUP, 0.40 to0.44; ssGBLUP, 0.41 to 0.45) at population level. However, rM2 from both BLUP models varied noticeably across info-types and bull-types. The ssGBLUP estimates of rM2 in PHEN, GEN, and PH+ GEN ranged between 0.51 and 0.63, 0.66 and 0.70, and 0.68 and 0.73, respectively. In YBULL, CBULL, and PBULL, the rM2 estimates ranged between 0.54 and 0.57, 0.55 and 0.62, and 0.70 and 0.74, respectively. The pedBLUP based rM2 estimates were also relatively lower than ssGBLUP estimates. At the population level, we found an increase in accuracy by 2.0% to 4.5% among traits. Traits in PHEN were least influenced by ssGBLUP (0% to 2.0%), whereas the highest positive changes were in GEN (8.1% to 10.7%). PH+GEN also showed 6.5% to 8.5% increase in accuracy by ssGBLUP. However, the highest improvements were found in bull-types (YBULL, 21% to 35.7%; CBULL, 3.3% to 9.3%; PBULL, 2.8% to 6.1%). CONCLUSION:A noticeable improvement by ssGBLUP was observed in this study. Findings of differential responses to ssGBLUP by various bulls could assist in better selection decision making as well. We, therefore, suggest that ssGBLUP could be used for GS in Hanwoo provenbull evaluation program.

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Prediction of complex human traits using the genomic best linear unbiased predictor.

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Prediction of complex human traits using the genomic best linear unbiased predictor.

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