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The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters.

ABSTRACT: The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

SUBMITTER: Grisham BA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3708951 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Climate change is expected to affect temperature and precipitation means and extremes, which can affect population vital rates. With the added complexity of accounting for both means and extremes, it is important to understand whether one aspect is sufficient to predict a particular vital rate or if both are necessary. To compare the predictive ability of climate means and extremes with geographic, individual, and habitat variables, we performed a quantitative synthesis on the vital rates of lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidictinus) across their geographic range. We used an information theoretic approach to rank models predicting vital rates. We were able to rank climate models for three vital rates: clutch size, nest success, and subadult/adult seasonal survival. Of these three vital rates, a climate model was never the best predictor even when accounting for potentially different relationships between climate variables and vital rates between different ecoregions. Clutch size and nest success were both influenced by nesting attempt with larger clutches and greater success for first nesting attempts than second nesting attempts. Clutch size also increased with latitude for first nesting attempts but decreased with latitude for second nesting attempts. This resulted in similar clutch sizes for first and second nest attempts at southern latitudes but larger clutches for first nest attempts than second nest attempts at northern latitudes. Survival was greater for subadults than adults, but there were few estimates of subadult survival for comparison. Our results show that individual characteristics and geographic variables are better for predicting vital rates than climate variables. This may due to low samples sizes, which restricted our statistical power, or lack of precision in climate estimates relative to microclimates actually experienced by individuals. Alternatively, relationships between climate variables and vital rates may be constrained by time lags or local adaptation.

Project description:Conservation translocations are frequently inhibited by extensive dispersal after release, which can expose animals to dispersal-related mortality or Allee effects due to a lack of nearby conspecifics. However, translocation-induced dispersals also provide opportunities to study how animals move across a novel landscape, and how their movements are influenced by landscape configuration and anthropogenic features. Translocation among populations is considered a potential conservation strategy for lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus). We determined the influence of release area on dispersal frequency by translocated lesser prairie-chickens and measured how lesser prairie-chickens move through grassland landscapes through avoidance of anthropogenic features during their dispersal movements. We translocated 411 lesser prairie-chickens from northwest Kansas to southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas in 2016-2019. We used satellite GPS transmitters to track 115 lesser prairie-chickens throughout their post-release dispersal movements. We found that almost all lesser prairie-chickens that survived from their spring release date until June undergo post-translocation dispersal, and there was little variation in dispersal frequency by release area (96% of all tracked birds, 100% in Baca County, Colorado, 94% in Morton County, Kansas, n = 55). Dispersal movements (male: 103 ± 73 km, female: 175 ± 108 km, n = 62) led to diffusion across landscapes, with 69% of birds settling >5 km from their release site. During dispersal movements, translocated lesser prairie-chickens usually travel by a single 3.75 ± 4.95 km dispersal flight per day, selecting for steps that end far from roads and in Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands. Due to this "stepping stone" method of transit, landscape connectivity is optimized when <5 km separates grassland patches on the landscape. Future persistence of lesser prairie-chicken populations can be aided through conservation of habitat and strategic placement of CRP to maximize habitat connectivity. Dispersal rates suggest that translocation is better suited to objectives for regional, rather than site-specific, population augmentation for this species.

Project description:The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is the most important waterfowl production area in North America. However, waterfowl populations there are predicted to decline because of climate-related drying of wetlands. Consequently, changes in the geographic focus of PPR waterfowl conservation have been recommended, which could have long-lasting and costly impacts. We used a 40-year dataset of pond counts collected in the PPR to test hypotheses about climate-related drying. We assessed May (1974-2013) and July (1974-2003) pond numbers in 20 waterfowl survey strata to determine if trends in pond numbers were consistent with predictions of drying. We also assessed trends in precipitation and temperature for the 20 strata and developed models describing May pond numbers from 1974 through 2010 as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year's pond numbers, and location. None of the 20 strata showed significant declines in May pond numbers, although seven strata showed increases over time. July pond numbers declined significantly in one stratum, and increased in seven strata. An index to hydroperiod showed significant increasing trends in three strata, and no strata had decreasing trends. Precipitation increased significantly in two strata and decreased in two from 1974 to 2010; no strata showed significant changes in temperature. The best linear model described pond numbers within all strata as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year's pond numbers, and the latitude and longitude of the stratum, and explained 62% of annual variation in pond numbers. We hypothesize that direct effects of climate change on prairie pothole wetlands and waterfowl may be overshadowed by indirect effects such as intensified land use and increased pressure to drain wetlands. We recommend that an adaptive, data-driven approach be used to resolve uncertainties regarding direct and indirect effects of climate change on prairie wetlands and waterfowl, and guide future conservation efforts.

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The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters.

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