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Quantifying effect of geographic location on epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax malaria.

ABSTRACT: Recent autochthonous transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria in previously malaria-free temperate regions has generated renewed interest in the epidemiology of this disease. Accurate estimates of the incubation period and time to relapse are required for effective malaria surveillance; however, this information is currently lacking. By using historical data from experimental human infections with diverse P. vivax strains, survival analysis models were used to obtain quantitative estimates of the incubation period and time to first relapse for P. vivax malaria in broad geographic regions. Results show that Eurasian strains from temperate regions have longer incubation periods, and Western Hemisphere strains from tropical and temperate regions have longer times to relapse compared with Eastern Hemisphere strains. The diversity in these estimates of key epidemiologic parameters for P. vivax supports the need for elucidating local epidemiology to inform clinical follow-up and to build an evidence base toward global elimination of malaria.

SUBMITTER: Lover AA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3713979 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quantifying effect of geographic location on epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax malaria.

Lover Andrew A AA Coker Richard J RJ

Emerging infectious diseases 20130701 7

Recent autochthonous transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria in previously malaria-free temperate regions has generated renewed interest in the epidemiology of this disease. Accurate estimates of the incubation period and time to relapse are required for effective malaria surveillance; however, this information is currently lacking. By using historical data from experimental human infections with diverse P. vivax strains, survival analysis models were used to obtain quantitative estimates of th ...[more]

PMID: 23763820

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Project description:BackgroundNew frontier settlements across the Amazon Basin pose a major challenge for malaria elimination in Brazil. Here we describe the epidemiology of malaria during the early phases of occupation of farming settlements in Remansinho area, Brazilian Amazonia. We examine the relative contribution of low-density and asymptomatic parasitemias to the overall Plasmodium vivax burden over a period of declining transmission and discuss potential hurdles for malaria elimination in Remansinho and similar settings.MethodsEight community-wide cross-sectional surveys, involving 584 subjects, were carried out in Remansinho over 3 years and complemented by active and passive surveillance of febrile illnesses between the surveys. We used quantitative PCR to detect low-density asexual parasitemias and gametocytemias missed by conventional microscopy. Mixed-effects multiple logistic regression models were used to characterize independent risk factors for P. vivax infection and disease.Principal findings/conclusionsP. vivax prevalence decreased from 23.8% (March-April 2010) to 3.0% (April-May 2013), with no P. falciparum infections diagnosed after March-April 2011. Although migrants from malaria-free areas were at increased risk of malaria, their odds of having P. vivax infection and disease decreased by 2-3% with each year of residence in Amazonia. Several findings indicate that low-density and asymptomatic P. vivax parasitemias may complicate residual malaria elimination in Remansinho: (a) the proportion of subpatent infections (i.e. missed by microscopy) increased from 43.8% to 73.1% as P. vivax transmission declined; (b) most (56.6%) P. vivax infections were asymptomatic and 32.8% of them were both subpatent and asymptomatic; (c) asymptomatic parasite carriers accounted for 54.4% of the total P. vivax biomass in the host population; (d) over 90% subpatent and asymptomatic P. vivax had PCR-detectable gametocytemias; and (e) few (17.0%) asymptomatic and subpatent P. vivax infections that were left untreated progressed to clinical disease over 6 weeks of follow-up and became detectable by routine malaria surveillance.

Project description:BackgroundIn Brazil, malaria is endemic in the Amazon River basin and non-endemic in the extra-Amazon region, which includes areas of São Paulo state. In this state, a number of autochthonous cases of malaria occur annually, and the prevalence of subclinical infection is unknown. Asymptomatic infections may remain undetected, maintaining transmission of the pathogen, including by blood transfusion. In these report it has been described subclinical Plasmodium infection in blood donors from a blood transfusion centre in São Paulo, Brazil.MethodsIn this cross-sectional study, representative samples of blood were obtained from 1,108 healthy blood donors at the Fundação Pró-Sangue Hemocentro de São Paulo, the main blood transfusion centre in São Paulo. Malaria exposure was defined by the home region (exposed: forest region; non-exposed: non-forest region). Real-time PCR was used to detect Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Subclinical malaria cases were geo-referenced.ResultsEighty-four (7.41%) blood donors tested positive for Plasmodium; 57 of these were infected by P. falciparum, 25 by P. vivax, and 2 by both. The prevalence of P. falciparum and P. vivax was 5.14 and 2.26, respectively. The overall prevalence ratio (PR) was 3.23 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.03, 5.13); P. falciparum PR was 16.11 (95% CI 5.87, 44.21) and P. vivax PR was 0.47 (95% CI 0.2, 1.12). Plasmodium falciparum subclinical malaria infection in the Atlantic Forest domain was present in the mountain regions while P. vivax infection was observed in cities from forest-surrounded areas.ConclusionsThe presence of Plasmodium in healthy blood donors from a region known as non-endemic, which is important in the context of transfusion biosafety, was described. Infected recipients may become asymptomatic carriers and a reservoir for parasites, maintaining their transmission. Furthermore, P. falciparum PR was positively associated with the forest environment, and P. vivax was associated with forest fragmentation.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Plasmodium vivax imposes substantial morbidity and mortality burdens in endemic zones. Detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of this parasite is needed to combat it. We used model based geostatistics (MBG) techniques to generate a contemporary map of risk of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Indonesia in 2010. METHODS:Plasmodium vivax Annual Parasite Incidence data (2006-2008) and temperature masks were used to map P. vivax transmission limits. A total of 4,658 community surveys of P. vivax parasite rate (PvPR) were identified (1985-2010) for mapping quantitative estimates of contemporary endemicity within those limits. After error-checking a total of 4,457 points were included into a national database of age-standardized 1-99 year old PvPR data. A Bayesian MBG procedure created a predicted PvPR(1-99) endemicity surface with uncertainty estimates. Population at risk estimates were derived with reference to a 2010 human population surface. RESULTS:We estimated 129.6 million people in Indonesia lived at risk of P. vivax transmission in 2010. Among these, 79.3% inhabited unstable transmission areas and 20.7% resided in stable transmission areas. In western Indonesia, the predicted P. vivax prevalence was uniformly low. Over 70% of the population at risk in this region lived on Java and Bali islands, where little malaria transmission occurs. High predicted prevalence areas were observed in the Lesser Sundas, Maluku and Papua. In general, prediction uncertainty was relatively low in the west and high in the east. CONCLUSION:Most Indonesians living with endemic P. vivax experience relatively low risk of infection. However, blood surveys for this parasite are likely relatively insensitive and certainly do not detect the dormant liver stage reservoir of infection. The prospects for P. vivax elimination would be improved with deeper understanding of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) distribution, anti-relapse therapy practices and manageability of P. vivax importation risk, especially in Java and Bali.

Dataset Information

Quantifying effect of geographic location on epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax malaria.

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Quantifying effect of geographic location on epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax malaria.

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